Vigorous westerly stream with a series of fronts: July 19-

[hillybilly]

Vigorous series of fronts the next ten days with a front almost daily. Starts out quite mild but by the end the air is on the cooler side of normal. Totals will add up in the usually favoured spots - northeast ranges, western Tasmania, east central Victoria. Will set these area up for a very wet July. The alps should see a lot of snow, particularly higher parts.

Elsewhere handy rain totals adding up over multiple days, though rainshadows in the usual spots.

[Macedonian]

1.9°min to 3.8°max for me. Coldest day of the week. Colder than the big cold snap earlier this week.

[hillybilly]

Strange day here today with 6C at noon then popped up to 12C at 1pm. Few blustery showers, but this isn’t our event.

Looks very wet for northern Tasmania and southern and mountain Victoria. Good snowfalls on the alps.

Watch for a large storm surge on the coast with local flooding around the bay, and minor to moderate flooding in parts of Gippsland. Sea levels might even reach record highs at Lakes Entrance, depending on how the storm surge times with the tide. Down here sea levels are very high, probably the highest I’ve seen them, but fortunately not much in the way of waves.

[hillybilly]

Big falls across northern Tasmania and the ranges and immediate coastal strip of Victoria, but not a lot elsewhere. The whole system is remarkable zonal That pattern continues today. Down here in southern Tasmania we’ve actually managed a light frost. Currently watching a few stations in northern Tasmania which are making runs at July daily record rainfall totals.

Sequence of fronts looks like going for ten plus days, though it’s tending increasingly nwly so they won’t be very cold. In fact progs starting to show really mild conditions despite the active weather, with 850Ts into the positive almost every day in the next ten days. Will feel like spring when the sun breaks through.

[Gordon]

Brutal night here, cold, feral winds which must have approached warning thresholds, with quite heavy rain at times. 4C as I write and 16mm in the gauge.

Finally some half decent rain to report with 40mm for the week. First time I've been able to claim that since April! Hope it's a sign of things to come. (Snow cams look spectacular this morning.)

[Adam38]

Feral wind but almost nothing in the way of rainfall in Bacchus. The rain shadow is strong with this system!

[Macedonian]

Tonnes of rain here since yesterday afternoon.
Even managed a bit of icy, splattery precipitation this morning, not much though and a bit annoying because central Highlands in NSW has more proper snow again today whilst we miss out.
2.8° to 5.1° for me today.

[Blackee]

A wet and freezing day in Mansfield with temp maxing at around 7c. Snow was settling after lunch from about 900m. Drove to Tolmie where it was heavy at times. There'd be a thick over now.

[stevco123]

20mm the last 24 hours. 95mm for the month.

[Pengaz]

Another 29.5mm from yesterday and overnight. Had some dumping heavy showers yesterday afternoon.

Interesting how localised rainfall has been around here lately with quite a bit of variation on each side of the town.

MTD now ~110mm.

[hillybilly]

A wet and freezing day in Mansfield with temp maxing at around 7c. Snow was settling after lunch from about 900m. Drove to Tolmie where it was heavy at times. There'd be a thick over now.

That’s great. I saw those photos over on ski.com and didn’t register who took them.

Bit of a non event here. 0.6mm. Managed a white frost this morning with a minimum of 0C which was a bit unexpected.

Much milder air moving in now with nwly winds for days. Showers, mostly clipping coastal parts and the ranges. Might get very cold bout this time next week.

[hillybilly]

Doubled my event total overnight Back to really mild here and for the whole southeast. Days of nwly flow with clipping fronts. Will add up in the usual wet spots, and good to see some drought breaking falls being clocked up consistency in the Bass Strait Islands and northern TAS which had a very poor time of it last year.

Poor folks in the more southern ski fields with drizzle, drizzle and more drizzle. Looks like about 50mm of the wet stuff at Mt Buller, while Baw Baw, Lake Mt, and Ben Lomond all look soggy this morning. Unfortunately this soggy mild weather looks to continue until Saturday.

[hillybilly]

Really mild for the southeast now. 17C for a max here yesterday and last nights minimum was 13.2C That’s a degree warmer than our average maximum. Showers pilling up on the coastal strip and ranges.

Pattern sticks til Saturday when we get a strong front. That one’s got some very cold air, but the ridge comes in pretty quickly so low level snow will be hit and miss. Still, might see a flurry at the likes of Macedon, Trentham and down here at Fern Tree.

[Skywalker]

Wish this mild North Westerly windy filth would bugger off. My son is heading up to the Alps next week for school camp. It will be his first trip up there, so would be nice for him to experience a fresh natural snow cover.

[hillybilly]

18C here yesterday. Looks similar today, wind get blustery with a pretty warm, windy and rainy front for Thursday. Expect a strong rainshadow for southeast TAS and west central VIC and Gippsland.

Much colder system for the weekend, which could well drop the first proper snow at spots like Trentham in two years. Looks about 2C too mild for snow in the Dandenongs, but might sneak some flakes there. Upper suburbs of Hobart should get something, but system isn’t very wet here.

[StratoBendigo]

Another light frost this morning. But these warm NWly winds during the day aren't great. Our July looks like it'll be below average rainfall. Only just though. The coming weekend looks coldish.

Some indications in the longer range forecasts of some significant polar air incursions around August 5-7. Something to watch.

[hillybilly]

Balmy 19C here today. Not quite record warmth, but geez not far off. Lots of site here missed record by about 1C.

Bit cooler tomorrow and showers spreading across much of Victoria and northern/western Tasmania.

Fronts for the weekend are look pretty interesting. Snow forecast to below 500m here, though front is a bit moisture starved, but it’s followed by a strong warm front. Those can be big snow producers if they come in over the top of cold air trapped at the surface. Will see if it sticks. Victoria is cold and shower. Think slightly to warm for snow in the Dandenongs but looks hopeful for Trentham, Macedon, perhaps the higher Otways etc.

[hillybilly]

Cool to mild blustery one today. Unfortunately low levels are dry so rain will get shreaded by ranges. Some good falls in the usual spots, but strong rain shadows.

Weekends cold air looking like it might pinch off and form a ECL. Progs showing snow to sea level as possibility in Tasmania. Not quite as good for Victoria with cold air peaking south and west. Sea level snow hasn’t happened for a couple of years down here, so overdue. We had snow here on two or three days back in 2021 (one was mostly sleet so not sure whether to call it snow or not) which is probably close to what the average used to be, but now it’s probably around one every couple of years. Guess we will see if the “snow drought” break

[snowfall]

Yes, we're very much rain shadowed here this morning. Not at all surprising given the set up. One only needs to go several kilometres north and it's a different story. It was a similar situation on the weekend, with only 6mm recorded here - lots of very strong wind but little rain. We're still about average for July rainfall, but we never do well during strong northerly events, which are currently reflected by the strong negative SAM we're in at the moment.

Looking forward to some colder weather though. We managed 14.8c on Tuesday, which is very mild for July here, although not unusual.

[StratoBendigo]

3mm here today. A chilly 11c max too. Very July-like.