Deep ECL with heavy rain, gales, storm surge and some snow

[hillybilly]

Big event showing up with a strong ECL forming in the south Tasman sea on Sunday moving west then north through early next week. Initially starts with cold air and showers, but as the low moves west we see strong warm air advection in a warm wrap around with heavy rain. Winds will be gales or worse on the coast and depending on track could see some large southerly to southeasterly swells and a storm surge.

Air is chilly initially but the Arctic blast is overblown for the southeast imho. Will be snowy, but not that low, then temperatures warm a lot. Wouldn’t be surprised if spots like Baw Baw get a good fall then it gets washed away. It’s rare that a big ECL is good for snow if it throws a wrap around onto the coast.

Further north will stay chilly so snow in places like Guyra and a chance for Queensland. Details will matter a lot, but currently thinking central 20-80mm widespread, and wouldn’t be surprised to see well over 100mm in the hills around Hobart, south Gippsland etc.

[Macedonian]

Sounds interesting HB. So no low-level snow for my area? I see BOM have dropped the snow level in the NSW Central Tablelands to 800m on Monday or Tuesday, that's pretty low for the CT these days.
Will be good to bump the abysmal winter rainfall tally in Victoria.

[hillybilly]

Sounds interesting HB. So no low-level snow for my area? I see BOM have dropped the snow level in the NSW Central Tablelands to 800m on Monday or Tuesday, that's pretty low for the CT these days.
Will be good to bump the abysmal winter rainfall tally in Victoria.

System starts cold then warms. Looks chilly enough for snow up your way Sunday, though a bit marginal. Airmass then warms. EC has 850Ts rising from around -2 to near 5C. GFS not quite as dramatic. The alps are messy. Snow then transition to rain. Central NSW will stay north of the warm wrap around while Tasmania will get the full effect. Victorian alps look like they’ll get the warm wrap around while the snowy mountains might stay just north of it.

Overall system looks to be holding rain and synoptic wise. Showers slowly building today ahead of widespread moderate to heavy falls developing Sunday into Monday. Two seperate lows spiral back towards Tasmania then Victoria, first Sunday into Monday, the second on Tuesday. Central pressure may well fall below 980hPa.

I’m catching the Spirit of Tasmania on Monday night leaving Geelong from 7pm. Should miss the worst of it, but looks pretty feral for the first couple of hours after we pass through the heads. Fortunately winds are mainly southerly so not a big fetch for waves, but still looks like they will be around 5 metres

[Macedonian]

Thanks HB! Enjoy your boat trip.
The max temps forecast for my area are nothing really out of the ordinary. Two 4° days in a row (Sunday and Monday) cold for sure, but we usually get at least one max that low per week in July anyhow.

[StratoBendigo]

There could be a late sting in the tail after Thursday going by some of the forecast charts. Potentially a good snow producer on the Alps.

Anyway, things are feeling rather fresh after 28mm last week and a cool (not cold) SWly today.

[Petros]

Well the Tasman Low has formed, models still showing an interesting meander for it over the next few days. Someone will get very damp from it, this one will be hard to model, and its potential track is unusual for us in Vic's SE.

[hillybilly]

Progs all holding. Looks wild for Tasmania and most of Victoria. Moderate to heavy falls as a very deep low cross the east coast of Tasmania middle of Monday then moves north to be in Bass Strait. System doesn’t quite push as far north so the warm air advection is a bit weaker into northern Victoria so the more northern snowfields might escape the worst of the rain. Looks good for the Snowies, and will be snow all the way to the Queensland border on the peaks. Temps aren’t that remarkable, but the areas of cold air is massive on the northern side of the low.

Showers today building for most areas, becoming heavy and tending to rain in parts of east central Victoria and eastern Tasmania. Ball park looks like a couple of months worth of rain is possible in parts of Tasmania, and around a months worth for the wetter spots in Victoria, particularly east central. Less as you get into northern and western Victoria, as you’d expect.

Temps start out cold, then warm, the cool again.

[Macedonian]

Calm, foggy and drizzly as usual here, but it is cold. 1.8° a little earlier and sitting on 2° now. It's around 4° in local lower-lying areas like Macedon and Woodend.

[stevco123]

It always frustrates me how the coldest air in these scenarios nearly always gets flung out into central NSW and southern Queensland

[snowfall]

5c here this morning. Picked up about 5mm yesterday, bringing the month to 35mm, so tracking much better than the previous couple of months. An interesting week ahead, with plenty of activity. Looks like east central and coastal areas will do best in Vic, especially today and Monday with a southwesterly flow, but other southern areas look to pick up the pace a bit on Tuesday and Wednesday.

The frogs have re-emerged here in the past week, after disappearing for the last 6 months or so. Loads of them have been chirping away every night. Could it be a sign that we're heading into a wetter pattern?

[Macedonian]

It always frustrates me how the coldest air in these scenarios nearly always gets flung out into central NSW and southern Queensland

Victoria is always the bridesmaid never the bride.

[Sean]

It always frustrates me how the coldest air in these scenarios nearly always gets flung out into central NSW and southern Queensland

Victoria is always the bridesmaid never the bride.

Haha, what does that make Melbourne? Always the braidsmaid, never the maid of honour? The Otways, tassie and the northern slopes tend to take the sting out of most events where Melbourne itself is concerned.

[Wilko]

5mm to kickoff this event
Sporadic Moderate showers since about 6pm
Anticipating nice totals in rain gauge tomorrow

[Australis(Shell3155)]

77.5mm since started to rain last Monday afternoon.
Some short sharp Bursts this morning…
13.9mm since midnight

[hillybilly]

Great system for southeast Tasmania. On the flats mostly 20-40mm, and on the hills 40-80m. Most areas the best daily fall in nearly 12 months but for some the best since May 2022. Still plenty of bands sweeping in from the east the next 24-48 hours. Hard to pick how much more but thinking pretty widely around an inch, with locally double that.

The deep low with central pressure near 980hPa is crossing the northeast coast of Tasmania this morning then races north to be near east Gippsland this evening. Showers and rain building for southern and mountain areas of Victoria. Warmer air is sweeping in but the system has flattened a bit, so looks like the mild air won’t get north of about the great divide so spots like Mt Wellington and Baw Baw will be a wash out but further north Hotham etc will do really well. Shame for the south, but great for the northern spots. Latest EC shows snow at higher elevations right up to the Granite Belt (for those wondering that used to be a once or twice a year event so not common, but not that rare).

For the bay and bass strait quite a surge and wave event, but tides are low this week which will stop a major coastal flooding event. Lucky on the timing.

[stevco123]

14mm since midnight. Non stop rain since 8am, and seems to be getting heavier.
Only 8 degrees too

[StratoBendigo]

It got to 11c earlier. Showers since 3pm and now 8c.

I'm quite interested in what GFS is forecasting around July 25-27. Something to keep an eye on.

[stevco123]

Just over 25mm. In line with the the Frankston Ballam Ballam AWS (which is actually in Karingal, and 4km from Frankston.

Seem to be in the sweet spot for now. CBD only has 1.6mm.

Non stop rain since 8am has meant our max temp is 8.6 today here.

[Macedonian]

Not much precipitation fir us today.
Cold all day, a low of 2.1° and a brief max of 4.7°.

[Wilko]

Reminds me of cyclone type conditions out there (without the humidity of course)