Deep low with some showers: Last week of June

[hillybilly]

Messy week coming up with a deep low in the bight drifting south and east. Will mean a quite mild week with some showers, more so on the ranges and in the west of both TAS and Vic. Probably just cold enough for snow higher in the alps. Not big falls, mainly dribbles so the dry May-June for most of the southeast.

System could be followed by a second low, but progs a bit jump about that.

[Gordon]

Sorry, accidentally started another thread (now deleted) - somehow missed this one.

Another freezing morning here, and despite full sun, the frost is taking a while to melt.

[StratoBendigo]

These frosts are really something this winter around Bendigo. -1c at our place again this morning, and some of the local farm dams had ice forming on the surface.

Local water authority is also flat-out fixing burst water mains around town this weekend.

[Macedonian]

According to the ABC news last night, we are in the midst of a polar blast with more to come this week. Shocking sensationalism.

[hillybilly]

According to the ABC news last night, we are in the midst of a polar blast with more to come this week. Shocking sensationalism.

Saw that and went looking at data. At best we might end the month a touch below average. No snow on the mountain here and the mountains in the mainland look pretty bare apart from the very top of the main range

Progs settling down. First part looks mainly mild and windy with some showers, mainly north slopes and west. Second part looks mild and wetter. Could be quite heavy in the usual spots. Been a dry month for many so hopefully this fills in some of the rainfall gaps. Not seeing much snow. Tbh this polar blast could leave less now at the end than there is at the start

[Sean]

I cringe whenever "polar blast" is used in the media. Winter so far has been completely humdrum. There've been some chilly nights, but we always get those when rain bearing systems are scant. Bring on the blustery, showery days that chase you inside.

Winter only seems to get cranking mid to late July and into August, so a few more weeks of thrilling 'dew on the grass' to keep us entertained.

[hillybilly]

Cold morning here with fog and frost. Minimum of 2C. Had some impressive temperature contrast down here the last couple of days with the deep inland valleys sitting around 5C for maxima under fog, while spots on the coast have bathed in warm sunshine and low teens.

First part of this system looking like a bit of a bust. Western VIC and TAS will get some, and also the northeast ranges but the rest of us mostly winds and cloud. Second part on the weekend looks better, but geez it’s sweeping down some warm air. Tropics are about to spike to near record highs so warm air isn’t far away. I don’t think we will see anything too high, but no way it’s going to be a polar blast. Hopefully some of the rain falls before 9am Sunday to salvage yet another dry month for so much of southeast Oz.

[StratoBendigo]

We will be lucky to scrounge another 5-10mm out of June. First week of July looks more promising tbh.

[hillybilly]

A band of heavy showers through the middle of Tasmania last night, but run out of steam just south of Hobart. Pretty widespread 10-30mm falls, and suspect the odd 50mm total lurking. With a dry month every bit helps.

Unfortunately just dribbles here 20km south of Hobart, but we have kept alive our run of days with precip which is now up to 18. Looks like a chance of a shower though til Saturday, then quite a wet Sunday and Monday here.

System otherwise is a mixed bag, as expected. Unfortunately lots of VIC headed for another dry month, and Melbourne is now nearly ten weeks since the last decent rain

[hillybilly]

System really fizzing for most. Bit in the usual wet spots but that is it. Just 1mm here so far.

Progs also now winding back for the second part Bit of a split, but EC has a mostly dribbles with a front followed by deep southerlies. Other models still holding onto a low with better falls, but feels like the trend is not our friend here when it comes to rain.

After last years record mild winter I was hoping for something normal, but seem while this one is cooler so far, about average temps for VIC and TAS, we are destined to have abnormal weather patterns yet again Ski field really showing this with little snow to speak of at the lower areas on the mainland.

[Gordon]

Managed to scrape together 7mm for the dates so far - every bit helps!

Running exactly 1C below average here for minimums, but only fractionally below for maximums.

[snowfall]

Just windy and mostly dry here. The odd bits of rain have amounted to about 1mm over the past week and a measly 16mm for the month. This could end up being my driest June here, which is normally a reliably wet month.

Hoping we can squeeze just a little more before the end of the month, but I have to say it's not looking great. Systems for a while now have ended up relatively starved of moisture. It's all feeling a bit like El Niño at the moment, especially with the many cold nights, despite the broader patterns slowly trending the other way. Hopefully things turn a corner as we head into the second half of winter and spring.

[QldTwister]

Have to agree feeling all very El nino for us with every system downgrading on models mostly dry fronts, moisture starved then huge highs following with days of widespread morning frost and record low mins in spots
Farmers and country areas in SA Vic and parts NSW really needing that soaking rain for crops.

The weekend system was looking great, now only a few mms for most again, followed by a VERY COLD week and a massive high. Next week looking down right COLD

But in typical model tease fashion they are showing a big cut off low next weekend with widespread rain which im sure will dissappaer next week lol.

Hoping weekend over produces but trend is bad and low looking to race through now rather than linger

Qld has down well widespread rain up there in parts with more to come.
WA to doing well and they REALLY needed it parts of their west coast near 300mm for the month up around Kallbarri crazy amount of rain for them.

[Skywalker]

It's been very dry here in the west as well. I had to water some of my outdoor plants on the weekend, and was virtually mowing dust when it came to giving the grass a trim. Can't remember the last time I've had to water plants in the middle of winter.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

48mm for June..
just watching the clouds. Grey, white, whispy.
Never far from a box of tissues. Every man and his dog crook in Melb.

[hillybilly]

Next system destined to dive south. Thats a wasted opportunity. Will be very good for western and northern Tasmania and ok for the ranges of Victoria, but a struggle elsewhere. Become quite cold by Sunday so snowy on the ranges but dry air moves in pretty quick. Next week then brings a big high so lots of foggy and frosty mornings. Big systems shooting up into the channel country of Queensland with heavy rainfall and very chilly temperatures for them, but just days of high pressure for the southeast.

This weather is really strange atm. Definitely not very normal, though at least we are getting winter like temperatures if not much weather.

[93ben]

So far it's been a pretty dry winter with some cold spells but that's about it.

[hillybilly]

Excellent falls pilling up in northern Tasmania. Not a lot elsewhere. A weak rainband will thicken for vic today while a deep low passes just south of Hobart. The air ahead is crazy warm for mid winter. Currently 14C here at 5am. Similar warmth for many areas, particularly if you are getting a foen effect.

Unfortunately rain for most the ski resorts today. Not an ideal way to start the school holidays. Should become more general snow later but air will be drying out.

Then a really nice week ahead. Crisp mornings with fog and frost and sunny days. Next high is a slow moving monster.

[StratoBendigo]

Currently 8c and 5mm so far. A wintry end to June 2024.