Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Crazy winds here yesterday though not much damage. The Derwent River looked like a hurricane middle of the day with spray in the air, sideways rain and wind waves which were around three feet tall.
Not a lot of rain, though didn’t really expect it. Low levels too dry.
Now waiting on the ECL. Tis forming in there Tasman the next 24 hours. Will then drift south to south southwest. Progs backed off a lot, but still have 20-40mm here which would be best fall in a year. Not confident but hopeful. Would think 10-20mm almost certain, but progs jumping is always a worrry.
After this then back to unusually mild weather and big highs. Hate to say it but the pattern hasn’t really shifted for much of Oz. Would not be surprised if we start to see temps approach records for June by later next week, but guess we will see.
Progs wound back and now started to look better for the ECL for eastern Victoria and Tasmania. Big spread though so who knows. Ranges from near 100mm here in the UK to 2mm in the ICON. Expecting around 20mm, but tbh could be anywhere between 10 and 50mm. Still rather dry here so hopefully something decent.
Getting some showers here this morning. Unfortunately the low doesn’t quite make it on the latest batch of progs, loitering near northeast Tasmania before moving southeast. So close, but not close enough
Expecting perhaps 10mm here but looks like the long dry continues, overall. Better for east Gippsland and northeast Tasmania where there are locally heavy falls. Btw was out on the southern Tasmania peninsula yesterday. Stunning area but geez it’s dry. Things are green as you’d expect but dams are low and creeks a trickle. That area has probably one of the most reliable rainfall climate in Australia with stunning swamp and coastal forests. Really showing the lack of fronts for months, even at 43S.
And bother ECL foe mid week. This block after block is something I’ve never seen before. Next week might see a change with a strong low in the westerlies.
20mm here yesterday which is our heaviest daily fall for the year Very patchy with the northern suburbs of Hobart getting 1-2mm while the hilly suburbs to the south locally got more than 30mm. Easterlies are odd systems as they tend to peak just inland on the first hill with rapid increases then dry out quickly further inland, so the direction you face makes all the difference.
Another ECL forming in the Tasman Sea the next few days, which might introduce some showers into eastern Victoria and Tasmania as we head towards the end of the week.
Another mm here with weak onshore flow. Progs are really starting to fire up. ECL for eastern vic followed by a strong backdoor front for the weekend then a big low for next week. Not overly cold for most of it, but otherwise will feel very wintery. New thread time