Becoming hot ahead of a change with possible rain and storms: February 10-14

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Feb 07, 2024 9:08 pm

Slow warming trend from here ahead of a warm to hot weekend, and a hot start to the work week. Pretty likely northwest VIC will see a couple of days near or above 40C. Melbourne, likely mid to high 30s. Change through TAS earlier on Tuesday and about a day later for northeast Victoria.

There is quite good moisture infeed to the trough so potential for rain and storms near the change, though progs are pretty jumpy so not to confident at this stage.

Post by **hillybilly** » Fri Feb 09, 2024 6:43 am

25C here yesterday so already quite warm. Another warm one today.

Starts to crank up the heat on Sunday, but not unusually hot.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Sat Feb 10, 2024 9:36 am

Had 3mm from drizzle overnight. Otherwise, it's very dry, with the landscape starting to brown off. We've had just 3.6mm since the 26th January and will likely end up with our first below average month since September.

The synoptics are slow moving at the moment, with high pressure dominating across southern Australia. A blast of heat is now on its way, starting from tomorrow. Monday and Tuesday should be well into the 30s. Unfortunately, it will also be very windy at times, especially on Tuesday ahead of a cold front.

Should be some rain with the cold front. Currently, it's not looking like a lot, but there might be a few lucky spots that do well.

SAM is still running neutral and the MJO is stuck well out in the Pacific for the better part of this month. We've probably got this broad pattern for a while, probably for the rest of this month and maybe into the first part of March. Would love to be surprised though.

Tassiedave · Post by **Tassiedave** » Sat Feb 10, 2024 8:53 pm

Tuesday 20th February is shaping up as a very hot day.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Feb 11, 2024 6:33 am

Nice day here yesterday. Unfortunately had too many nice days with things really browned off here now. Plants starting to get pretty stressed.

Warming up today. Should be mid 20s here and 30s for vic. Might nudge 35C locally in southern vic and high 30s on the north. Monday and Tuesday look similar.

Thunder is for the eastern half of Victoria with the change, and shone showers for tas followed by a rainband. Gonna be another big event for southwest Tasmania with locally more than 40mm.

After this progs look pretty dull. Some chance for warm weather and tropical moisture next week.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Feb 12, 2024 6:49 am

Moving into the hot ones. Mid to high 30s most of VIC. Mainly mid to high 20s TAS.

Change looks quite strong but won’t have much rain for most. Heavy falls for southwest TAS. Odd shower and storm elsewhere. Hoping to sneak 10mm here, but progs really spraying over a wide range so could be anywhere be 1 and 10mm.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Mon Feb 12, 2024 4:08 pm

Nothing beats a strong sea breeze to cool off the day, if you're lucky to be on the coast.
Funnily enough it's still 34 in Cranbourne, but 29 in Cranbourne east.

27 in the city now, after a max of 36

Didjman · Post by **Didjman** » Mon Feb 12, 2024 5:50 pm

35 here still - at 1000ft

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:53 pm

Sea breeze arrived here a couple of hours ago. Currently 20c after a max late this afternoon of 35c.

Post by **hillybilly** » Mon Feb 12, 2024 9:36 pm

Stinker for most of Victoria, many places warmer than expected. TAS a mixed bag with stiff sea breezes keep coastal spots in the low 20s with 30s just inland. No complaints at home where it peaked at 24C

Tomorrow looks horrible in VIC. High 30s to 40s, dry air, nasty gusty winds and a late change. Lucky things are still pretty green for many.

TAS misses the worst of it.

Some showers and storms near the change, but pretty sparse followed by a late rain for TAS, quite heavy in the southwest.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Mon Feb 12, 2024 10:32 pm

snowfall wrote: ↑Mon Feb 12, 2024 8:53 pm Sea breeze arrived here a couple of hours ago. Currently 20c after a max late this afternoon of 35c.

Yes good to get these cool nights between hot days; takes the edge off. Got to 33C here, and now back to 18C.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 1:42 pm

Cu bubbling away from the NW central
Dynamic situation with damaging winds

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:00 pm

Storms absolutely chucking it down currently - no dry lightning here

.

Dane · Post by **Dane** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:02 pm

Quickfire storm though here around 1.30pm 5mm's of rain in 10 minutes loud thunder and some pea sized hail.
Temp dropped from 35 to 25 in that storm but is rising again now up to 29c Dp is 18c

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:09 pm

Storm sirens going off in the golf course across the road. Radar looks ominous for an isolated cell here. Very dark clouds- the type of weather we got in the 90s after a hot day

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 2:21 pm

Marble size hail in 3 mins

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:12 pm

No words...

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:15 pm

Carnage in Cranbourne...

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:21 pm

Edit: that was a microburst. We are stuck inside our kids' classroms. No one is leaving the school. Absolute mayhem

Post by **93ben** » Tue Feb 13, 2024 3:36 pm

Getting very dark here in Templestowe.