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Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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hillybilly
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like top in Vic was 33C at Mildura. Much cooler near the coast as expected. Crazy hot airmass just north of VIC. Quite a few records in South Australia today including 40C at Ceduna. Plenty of early seasons records as well.

Tomorrow looks to be a degree or two warmer for most of Vic and TAS. Front for Wednesday will pack quite a punch with gales near the coast, heavy rain for much of TAS, and lots of showers for southern Vic.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Sneaky front dragging through Bass Strait atm. Might be the odd shower and a bit cooler, though still 4 or more degrees above average. Still warm to hot in the north. We kinda got lucky with this one in southern ares with this weak system introducing slight cooler air for tomorrow compared to earlier runs.

Record heat persists to the north. Heat warnings posted for parts of coastal NSW. Might seem strange, but apparently quite a few heat affected runners on the weekend in Sydney as the mid 30s temps have hit early and fast.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by stevco123 »

hillybilly wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 6:49 am Sneaky front dragging through Bass Strait atm. Might be the odd shower and a bit cooler, though still 4 or more degrees above average. Still warm to hot in the north. We kinda got lucky with this one in southern ares with this weak system introducing slight cooler air for tomorrow compared to earlier runs.

Record heat persists to the north. Heat warnings posted for parts of coastal NSW. Might seem strange, but apparently quite a few heat affected runners on the weekend in Sydney as the mid 30s temps have hit early and fast.
Wouldn't say "lucky", rather it was never the right time for southern Victoria to have such intense heat so early. Lucky would mean we dodged a bullet of some sort 🤭.

What's happening up north has happened before. Granted, it is not very common but nothing out of the ordinary, especially with reliable records only going back 50 to 60 years (even 150 year records don't mean that this type is weather wasn't common before that).

Ceduna used to have two sites -one of which closed in 1990. Who's to say that it wouldn't have recorded a warmer day than yesterday in the 33 years that it's been closed.

Excuse the cynicism but it's the finer details like this, that makes me want to get the facts from all sides before making an informed opinion on topics.

I'm just glad we have a little milder weather the September, unlike the last 10
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Mildura got to a nasty 36.5c today. 27.8c here. Yuck.

Could be a pre-equinox record for Mildura. They did get to 37.7c on Sept 23, 2017.

Looking forward to the cool change on Tuesday night.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

StratoBendigo wrote: Mon Sep 18, 2023 3:33 pm Mildura got to a nasty 36.5c today. 27.8c here. Yuck.

Could be a pre-equinox record for Mildura. They did get to 37.7c on Sept 23, 2017.

Looking forward to the cool change on Tuesday night.
Yep, it’s a Mildura and VIC early season record. Not happened before. Pretty hard to keep track of all the records with many early season, run of days, and days above for September records across so much of southern Australia. This follows our record warm winter, and record early peak to the snow season by almost a week. Would think it’s pretty likely that September averages will come in record warm for a large part of Australia, too.

Would be nice to balance the hot records with some cold records, but it ain’t gonna happen.

Winds picking up the next two days and becoming wet for Tas and parts of VIC. Pretty worrying for NSW with fire dangers rising.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Last warm one today for the sequence. Hot air is mainly north and east of VIC so don’t expect any records today for TAS or VIC, but heat continues over NSW.

Winds are getting gusty now ahead of the sharp though moisture starved front. Peaks down here are already gusting to near 110km/hr while exposed spots in Vic are approaching 100km/hr. Expect a bit of a storm surge on the coast, though tides are quite low so don’t imagine too many issues.

Heavy rainfall for western Tas the next 36 hours with light to moderate falls for southern VIC and eastern Tas. Not much for northern Vic, unfortunately.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by snowfall »

Crazy levels of heat in NSW. I saw reports today that schools have closed on the south coast due to fire danger... and we're barely out of winter.

It's already up to 22.4c here and the wind is picking up. Would love some rain, but unfortunately it's looking very lean.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Meanwhile, South Africa is having a very cold start fo Spring:
https://www.thesouthafrican.com/news/we ... mber-2023/
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by QldTwister »

Amazing run of heat and yesterday felt cold after the warm week but much nicer today in the mid to high 20s but dam patch of cloud wont move to give some sun

Wed and Thursday going to be a shock after the warm week going to feel freezing lol

Expecting little if any rain and not good news for northern Vic no rain for next couple weeks hot windy sunny crops will be dryong out real fast

El Nino and IOD both occuring so these condtions will just roll on for months to come

2019 repeat on the cards but fires wont be as bad but heat will be

heat returns from sunday
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Spoke to soon about records in Vic. Gabo Island with 140 years of data has just smashed the September record by an unbelievable 3C. Lots of records being approached or exceed just across the border, including Cabramurra in the Snowy Mountains with 20.0C.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by Macedonian »

First day over 20° at my place since April 4th when I had 19.9° rounded to 20.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by Tassiedave »

Catastrophic Fire Danger on the south coast of NSW in mid September
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Crazy winds down here topping 100km/hr. Now have a band of heavy rainfall pilling up on the west coast. Precip waters are very high with this system in Tas, so expecting high rainfall rates the next few hours. Wouldn’t be surprised to see some minor flooding in the southwest.

Here closer to Hobart the rain is slowly edging closer. Hoping for 20mm overnight.

Will be showers for southern Victoria next 24 hours and getting cooler. Will actually get quite chilly with light snow on the alps. More records to fall just over the border in NSW. Nasty fire weather to.

Lastest data are showing that September is probably going to be the hottest month on record for the globe with a huge lead over the previous record. Those climate drivers are noting playing nicely atm. Hopefully we can continue to get a bit of rain to keep the worst impacts away.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Solid rainband down here last night. Big falls our west with a few spots topping 50mm and still raining. Local flooding out there. Sparser as you head east. 11mm here, so just shy of 30mm for the thread. Happy with that.

Much colder, with snow on the mountain but mostly light falls so far. Record heat over NSW and Victoria in between. Some showers today, though mostly look quite light.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Feral in a good way down here this morning. Hail and rain which is sideway, gales, and finally snow on the mountain to a reasonable level - was about 800m at 8am. That more typical of spring down here :D Still some concerns about a couple of fires in the northeast of Tas with the strong winds and dry air up there.

Good to see a few mm's in parts of central Vic with the change, though mainly a dust settler than anything to meaningful.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Very welcome 7mm more here today. Wasn’t expecting anything much so very happy :) Very vigorous often icy wind, with temps below 10C most the afternoon. Unfortunately picked a break in the sun around noon and shot up to 13C so won’t go down notably cold.

Blizzards on the mountain closed the road about 2pm. Looks like 5-10cm settled. Here’s a shot from northwest bay at the end of our street of Kunanyi just on dusk. My first snow across the water for 2023 (last year we had snow visible on those mountains for weeks.

Good to see a bit of a drink for VIC this arvo. Week to ten days from now look really dry for almost all of Oz so anything is very welcome. In contrast Tas, particularly the west is going to get bucket loads.

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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by snowfall »

Good to see some rain about and the snow down there HB.

Just 1mm here. That takes the month to a grand total of 15mm. It's looking like we'll end with a very dry month here, especially for spring.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by Macedonian »

3.7° this morning. Back to winter.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Nice cold air day here today with sparse but dumping coldies. Plenty with hail. Most spots only got a mm or two because they were small, but a classic winter days. Brilliant sunshine and not much wind meant temps were jumping up and down all day from 11c to 8C and back again 🤣 Max briefly here of 12C after an overnight 4C. Now had about 40mm for the thread which has been a huge relief.

Shaping up for a frost tonight.

Nice weekend then maybe a trough for Monday.

Records in northern NSW today and the heat spread to NZ where they set an early season record just shy of 30C. Snow resorts there have been hammered by huge rainfalls and heat. Same for the Snowies. Largest one week decline on record for September at 65cm at Spencers Creek. Bit over all these records that keep going in the same direction. At least, no repeat heatwave for a week or more, though if EC is correct October might open with something nasty in the heat department 🫣
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by Pengaz »

Managed to squeeze out 5mm here from showers on Wednesday.

Everything is very green around here at the moment after the soak we got a fortnight ago. Looks like we might get a chance to add to our September tally next week, but I expect we’ll be well short of our monthly average.
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