Strong front followed by a week of westerlies: May 25-

[hillybilly]

Thread for the new week with a strong front for Thursday, followed by a week or perhaps even two weeks of westerlies. System doesn’t link any moisture, but should still produce lots of showers. Be heavy falls in western Tas and coastal VIC. Not much for eastern Tas and inland VIC. In between a strong gradient. Kinda continues the story of the last month, as the weather feels pretty El Niño like

Expect snow, quite low on Thursday, then mostly about the peaks. Trentham and Fern Tree etc might see some flurries.

[stevco123]

Definitely looks like one of those short,sharp low level snow events that lasts a few short hours and then quickly turns too warm for snow.

El nino still a 50/50 chance of happening, but is looking more likely as the weeks go on. Some of the best cold weather events happen in el nino years so should be an interesting winter. However not looking forward to summer if it does get influenced by an el nino

[hillybilly]

Crazy winds down here in southern Tas overnight with a few big branches and trees down in the area. Was also ridiculously warm at 16C at midnight.

Cooled down now with patchy rain. It’s definitely a western Tasmania special, but hoping for a tank top up after a really ordinary first three weeks of May. Locals are still trucking in tank water. In contrast, western Tasmania is starting to wet up nicely after a couple of very dry years.

[Gordon]

Wind has moved on here thank goodness, now under good steady rain - 6mm so far.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Breeze had chill in it around 10am.
Recently started raining, eased up now..

[Gordon]

Up to 12mm now, a good result already.

[StratoBendigo]

10mm here so far. More than I expected tbh.

[hillybilly]

7mm here for the day. Best event for a couple of weeks. Puts off buying water for a week Big falls out west as expected. VIC a bit of a mixed bag. Surprised to see ok falls in the northern country and Wimmera but expected more around Melbourne.

Nice chilly airmass now with snow down to around 700m atm. Nice accumulation around the peaks

Another decent front for Sunday.

[StratoBendigo]

15mm in the end. Great result.

[snowfall]

That's very good SB. Just 5.8mm here.

[Gordon]

15mm in the end. Great result.

Very good, and great to see decent (10mm plus) widespread falls through the northern Vic generally. Even Mildura got 11mm!

Back at our place, 12mm ended up being the 9am total, but happy with that. Maybe a few more mm to come for the rest of the month.

[StratoBendigo]

Quite wet this morning. Already 6mm...

Update -10mm. 25mm since Thursday lunchtime.

[Quasar217]

15mm so far this morning in Ringwood North. We just hit 100mm for May second month in a row, and 8 of the last 10 months above average. The BoM forecast has consistently underestimated the rainfall. We have got over the top end of the estimated range every time in the last few months. This time they said 1-7mm, so double that.

[snowfall]

Heavily rain shadowed here, so only 5mm. The main rain band looks to be clearing soon, but good to see some healthy falls across a fair part of Vic.

[Gordon]

The BoM forecast has consistently underestimated the rainfall.

Same for us. 1-5mm forecast for Gordon on this occasion, and we got 9mm. 21mm for the thread, 66mm mtd.

[stevco123]

Related to the same system- sort of, large tracts of Nsw had their coldest May mornings on record, including western Sydney.

A couple of -10 and -11 too in rural towns. Crazy stuff

[hillybilly]

Yesterday was a bust for eastern Tas, but delivered for western areas. Was picked by the progs. I was really surprised to see Melbourne do so well. Amazing that three months in a row the cbd and nearby ares have scored above average while rest of Oz has been drying out. Funy how sometimes a random pattern just sticks like that.

Another strong front today, though just scrapping coastal Vic. Starting to see river rises in western Tas catchments which is good to see after a couple of dry years. Forests out there have been dangerously dry in a couple of recent summers so really need a wet one.

We scored 0.5mm yesterday, and another mm today in southeast TAS. At about 60% of the average for May, so headed for our third below average month in a row. June showing signs it might start with a cut off, fingers crossed

[snowfall]

Picked up a few more mm in a heavy burst of showers in the late afternoon to make it 8.6mm for yesterday. It's looking quite mild for this week, especially as we're heading into June.

And had a good shake from the earthquake last night

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Tomorrow forecast 4 here..
Heavy showers… 40% <1mm.

Please explain..

[hillybilly]

Nice wintery one in Tas with good showers in the west, but sparse in the east. Another mm in the gauge. Chillly max of 10.9C at sea level at our place .

Front for Wednesday looks solid, with potential moderate to heavy falls back home. Bit less for vic.

Btw people tracking sea ice? 2 million kms below average atm. Crazy. Nothing like that seen in the records, ever. Doesn’t bode well for winter, though perhaps we will get luck in Oz.

Funny how we’ve bucked the trend so far this year while so many places are record warm. Even a few more record low mins yesterday in Queensland, though most at short run sites except Maryborough.