A deep low for Easter 2023

[StratoBendigo]

We had a storm at 4am with a few close strikes. 17mm so far - a great start.

Raining again now.

[stevco123]

Mostly dry day for Melbourne today?

[Gordon]

Looks like a good autumn break for parts of the Wimmera which is a bit of a surprise based on the progs.

Yes, great for that area which has been missing out a bit - quite a few 30mm falls. As late as yesterday looked as if most of the action was going to be to their east.

Only 4mm here so far; hoping to be hit by some convective rain coming down from the north. (Edit: coming down hard now)

[Didjman]

Been rain shadowed by the Divide-2.4mm so far

[Petros]

Had a few high based weak storms about Nth Gippy yest arvo/evening, a mild warm day. Light showers from the Nth have been around on and off here since last evening, but only tally to 6mm so far. Still quite mild out, ...the Foehn effect.

[Blackee]

Rainy night at Mansfield with 12mm event total so far. Storms are forming to our NW as forecast now. Sun's out presently for extra heating.

[snowfall]

A nice rotation visible on the radar over west central.

It's feeling very humid out there and lots of showers around, although just 1mm here so far today, following 6.8mm last night. Should be a fairly wet afternoon.

[QldTwister]

Showers and thunderstorms poping up around Central and Eastern Vic this arvo while rain band continues in western Vic but weakens.
Intresating arvo ahead, quite convective then rainy night and moves eastwards.
Welcome 20 to 30mm falls in Wimmera and SW and 30 to 50mm in NE Vic and prob same again there today. NW Vic missed out this one.

Wet arvo evening for central and east Vic with windy showery weather Sat Sun, easing Mon
Number spots be 50 to 100mm for event and number of 100mm plus in NE Vic likely lots 50 to 100mm east of Melb to im sure with SWlies Sat sunday looking wet and chilly sure donna come in with over 100 for easter.

Enjoying final hours of mild weather here shame high cloud about would be more stormy if was sunny

5mm overnight

Expecting 25 to 40mm here over easter break

[James]

once again bad forecasting, supposed to be thunder rain...nearly called off the gardener as everyone was talking about how it would be torrential rain today and not worth doing anything...I did say dont plan by the forecasts wait and see...i am still waiting and seeing..nothing (granted it might come later) but nothing what everyone was thinking it was going to be so far.

[stevco123]

once again bad forecasting, supposed to be thunder rain...nearly called off the gardener as everyone was talking about how it would be torrential rain today and not worth doing anything...I did say dont plan by the forecasts wait and see...i am still waiting and seeing..nothing (granted it might come later) but nothing what everyone was thinking it was going to be so far.

I also have at least 10 messages on my phone saying that it is a dry day (like i didn't know that haha). I have been telling them for days that the most likely day for rain in Melbourne is Sunday morning, and i stand by it.

[James]

I also point out the forecast for here last night/evening ws updates to say thunderstorms potentially severe for this area, which vanished this morning...after which most people had prepared for that...does not instill faith in taking notice of forecasts.

[stevco123]

Tomorrow's forecast says "high chance of showers".

I'm willing to bet it'll change with this afternoon's update to "high chance of showers, mainly late in the day".

[stevco123]

Flood warning also removed by BoM now. Suggests won't be anywhere near as much rain as forecast.

[hillybilly]

Classic case of Melbourne atm being to close to the centre of the low. Everything spinning around it.

Not much here atm, though tbh today always looked very hit and miss down here for the first part. Super humid with clouds at about 100m above sea level but no uplift and no sunshine for convection.

[Gordon]

Definitely playing out differently to what I expected; a lot more for the western half of Vic (so far). Lots of 30mm+ falls, with Mt William closing in on 70mm which is way more than the models expected. Even here, we've just ticked over 20mm.

Now we westerners wait to see what the wrap around brings from the south...

[weathergasm]

Classic case of Melbourne atm being to close to the centre of the low. Everything spinning around it.

Precisely. I never buy into the hype when the low is pretty much exactly over Melbourne, particularly early in the day.

[Sean]

Yawn

[stevco123]

Looks like low still clear out soon, giving us a mainly fine night and day tomorrow again, then showers with the cold front

[Gordon]

A quickfire 7mm from the latest band of showers, making 24mm since 9am, and 27mm since last night. Wind has really picked up.

Should crack 30mm soon - well ahead of expectations.

Meanwhile Mt William has hit 75mm - 3 inches in the old money and a fantastic result.

[snowfall]

We’ve been in the firing line this evening, with very heavy showers and 41mm so far.

Looks like it will clear fairly soon, but is already well above model projections.