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Easterly trough with showers and storms: January 21-26

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Wilko
Supercell
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Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic

Tue Jan 24, 2023 6:33 pm

Nothing here
Weird steering and pulses ;)
Sean
Cumulonumbus Calvas
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Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb

Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:14 pm

Expected nothing, got nothing lol
snowfall
Supercell
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Joined: Mon Mar 20, 2017 7:39 pm
Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:50 pm

Nothing here either. Narrowly missed a storm (again!) with a bit of nearby thunder, but ultimately no luck.

Big downpour in Ferny Creek - 35mm, most of which fell in about 45 mins.
weathergasm
Cumulonimbus
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Joined: Sun Feb 14, 2010 9:32 pm
Location: Box Hill

Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:51 pm

Got it good here in Ringwood. The dogs and myself were startled by several close CGs and the resulting whipcracks of thunder.

Unfortunately I was glued to the computer as I’m WFH, but still a great water for the garden!
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hillybilly
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Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
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Tue Jan 24, 2023 7:53 pm

Stuck between a trough to the west and low to the east. Lots of bubbly Cu, but cells basically killed by a tiny bit of mid level warming. Missed by models.

That storm in Melbourne’s east was a cracker. Spot near Ferntree Gully scored 75mm, with a few nearby 50-70mm falls. Today was always the best day for the plains, but with a weak trough and no upper forcing could only be pulsey and hit and miss. The best odds for the usual suspects, but it’s impossible to predict the details. Can see that when you look at that one cell which dropped 75mm in the Gully but basically missed the areas south of the Burwood highway 5-10km away.

Clearing to the odd shower tomorrow. Still a chance for a rumble in southeast TAS, and northern and eastern VIC but clearing out.
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Location: FTG
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Tue Jan 24, 2023 8:23 pm

Currently Marcus Hill.. had mild storm @ Caravan Park.

Apparently FTG / Boronia copped over 40mm.
See Forest road is flooded..
WS further up hill said over 60mm..
stevco123
Supercell
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Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:41 am

Looks like all parts of the metro area got something (at least a light show). Except for my area. Zero. Nothing. Zilch.

Disappointed
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Gordon
Supercell
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Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Wed Jan 25, 2023 12:24 pm

stevco123 wrote: Wed Jan 25, 2023 11:41 am Looks like all parts of the metro area got something (at least a light show). Except for my area. Zero. Nothing. Zilch.

Disappointed
I got 1mm which is almost as bad. The rainfall map from the Melbourne radar tells an interesting story of the haves and have nots. http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDR02D.loop.shtml#skip
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Didjman
Supercell
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Wed Jan 25, 2023 1:28 pm

Nothing here either
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hillybilly
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Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:19 am

Another bust on Wednesday here. Glad to see that teasing non event gone.

Progs messy for the week ahead. Warm to hot Saturday. Might get some showers Sunday, or not. Possible quite cold system this time next week. Shame we can’t get one big tropical infeed with widespread rain and storms this summer. So much humidity, but no triggers.
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Didjman
Supercell
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Thu Jan 26, 2023 7:47 am

Also HB,
I noticed on Melb soundings the air was quite dry above 10 - 15 thousand feet. I agree - we need a good warm tropical infeed with a strong front behind for forcing.
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hillybilly
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Fri Jan 27, 2023 6:24 am

Progs starting to brew up a large scale event for the second half of next week. Deep low with cool to cold air aloft. Lots of rain and storms. Been lots of systems come and go in the models, so probably a bit early to latch onto it. In between a stinker tomorrow, followed by an almost dry change.
snowfall
Supercell
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Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Fri Jan 27, 2023 9:51 am

Definitely need a good rain event. It is getting quite dry here now, and tomorrow will be hot and windy, so will dry things out further. We're sitting on just a notch below 30mm for January, which will be our driest in quite a while. The three previous Januarys were all above 100mm.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Fri Jan 27, 2023 3:34 pm

Tomorrow looks like the last hot day for a while. Quite a decent cold front this time next week too for Feb. But we're unlikely to see much rain.

January hasn't been too bad here. Two decent downpours during the month at either end have helped. But far less rain on the other side of Bendigo interestingly.

Meanwhile, Northern Australia looks like it'll cop a pretty big monsoonal system in the next week or so.
stevco123
Supercell
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Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:05 am

Interestingly, Melbourne hasn't had a 40+ degree day in February since 2014.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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hillybilly
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Sat Jan 28, 2023 8:02 pm

32.1C here today which is our hottest for summer. Not a particularly nice day with lots of high level cloud and gusty winds at time. Nicer now, with a southeasterly change having kicked in with a bit of humidity.

The rainband will thicken up a little bit overnight. Maybe 2-5mm if you get lucky, but looks like missing most of central.

Guess new thread time. System is a doozie, but probably more cold and wind, though will be decent falls in the usual spots.
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:15 am

stevco123 wrote: Sat Jan 28, 2023 7:05 am Interestingly, Melbourne hasn't had a 40+ degree day in February since 2014.

My memory fades….. how many very very hot days in a row did we get, was this that event in 2014.
I do know it was far too many….
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:42 am

Saturday started like so..
Stayed overcast which was a relief for outdoor activities.

Upon arrival home after being away 5 days, missing mulch of many areas, accumulated gum leaves from rivers of water, and on the bitumen road was the large mound of lilydale topping from a diagonal neighbour.
Some of the photos and videos showed it was insane the storm.
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Australis(Shell3155)
Supercell
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Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:57 am

Checked out radar ..
gee I must have read the forecast incorrect….
I have washing to go on the line..

The weather seems to have had missed sending the memo to the weatherman that it’s going to rain,
Or is this the radar that’s over reading..
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hillybilly
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Sun Jan 29, 2023 7:14 am

Australis(Shell3155) wrote: Sun Jan 29, 2023 6:57 am Checked out radar ..
gee I must have read the forecast incorrect….
I have washing to go on the line..

The weather seems to have had missed sending the memo to the weatherman that it’s going to rain,
Or is this the radar that’s over reading..
Most over Melbourne is virga. Models are split between it staying as virga and some reaching the ground. The system does fade near central so line ball.
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