Warm and humid with showers and storms: Late December to early January

[hillybilly]

A lengthy period of warm to hot and humid conditions with storms. Main focus will be the ranges and east, but they will roll off the ranges at times. Expecting locally moderate to heavy falls, but some areas will miss out completely. At this stage Saturday and Monday looking the more active, but all days to about Tuesday look like being active.

Temperature mainly low 20s (coast) to low 30s. Will creep higher in the usual spots. Will round out a month that started cool and ended warm. Expect many spots will end up pretty close to average, despite the unusually cool start

[James]

I've been very sick over the break with the dreaded virus but have been watching the clouds from bed each day, some really lovely anvils and side views of storms over the other side of the mountains but nothing coming over this side (Boronia). Close yet so far each day! The BOM has been continually saying possible severe in the outer east suburbs, yet nothing as usual!

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Sorry to hear [mention]James[/mention] about Virus.
I’ve been glad to not cop that mess your talking about..
I’d be happy with a sprinkle over night for the garden tho.. !

I hear of some red cells out Coongulla way yesterday…… flash flooding in back yards.. ?
Flat Roofers may have copped a good storm out east..

[hillybilly]

I've been very sick over the break with the dreaded virus but have been watching the clouds from bed each day, some really lovely anvils and side views of storms over the other side of the mountains but nothing coming over this side (Boronia). Close yet so far each day! The BOM has been continually saying possible severe in the outer east suburbs, yet nothing as usual!

That’s not good. It is really hit and miss. Some people I know are out for two weeks, other barely register and cough. Seems like not much pattern to it.

[hillybilly]

Progs really spraying the next four days, and also jumpy. This happens with broad diffuse patterns where there isn’t a lot of forcing. These situations can deliver some of the most cracking storms but also really frustrate.

Those storms out in east Victoria where locally severe. Few spot reports of other 50mm, particular in the foot hills south of the divide. Most spots east of about Marysville seemed to have picked up 10mm plus.

There is now a small cluster of storms in south Gippsland on the leading edge of a little vorticity max. Not picked by the progs, so will be interesting to watch what it does and where it goes.

Down here in Tasmania gone from very dry sunny conditions yesterday to cloud at almost sea level and mizzle this morning. 2.4mm in the gauge here, and locally up to 5mm in the hills. Usual peak around Bicheno where easterlies hit the ranges next to the coast. Progs had next to nothing this time yesterday Is strong warm air advection coming in off the Tasmania Sea so now very humid.

Progs suggest focus today will again be in the ranges of eastern VIC, east coast Tasmania and possible also the ranges in Tasmania’s southwest.

[dazrain]

I've been very sick over the break with the dreaded virus but have been watching the clouds from bed each day, some really lovely anvils and side views of storms over the other side of the mountains but nothing coming over this side (Boronia). Close yet so far each day! The BOM has been continually saying possible severe in the outer east suburbs, yet nothing as usual!

That’s not good. How many jabs have you had?
I’ve had all four (2 Astra, one Moderna and one Pfizer) and was a very strong positive on the RAT on Wednesday before Xmas. Thursday I was garbage, Friday 80% ok already. My taste and smell went on Xmas Eve for two days. What great timing!

Far better than a year ago after only 2 jabs. That was horrendous- but may have been Delta back then not one of the Omicron variants.

[James]

one thing i notice thats a repetitive pattern is that the Windy models almost always show storms in the eastern suburbs prior to and almost 24 hours before the day (and the bom forecast storms) but on the actual day, the latest model update ALWAYS moves them out more to the east, (which anyone could have predicted as its how its turned out 100% of the time so far) - yet the BOM seem to still predict storm chance for eastern suburbs.

This is an overall pattern this season with weather, also..you can be guaranteed of exciting and colorful imagery a week out, which is just as guaranteed to vanish by the date (doesn't stop a lot of social media amateur weather people gathering an audience into a frenzy about future events that are unlikely to unfold quite that way!).

Still i guess there'd be nothing to talk about otherwise!

Yes, I'd prefer not to have anything severe here, the tomatoes are doing wonderful this year with flowers galore, perfect time for them to be ruined!

[Gordon]

Those storms out in east Victoria where locally severe. Few spot reports of other 50mm, particular in the foot hills south of the divide. Most spots east of about Marysville seemed to have picked up 10mm plus.

A mate up near Mt Buller reported 80mm, so some serious totals out there away from the official stations, which you would expect with hit-and-miss storms.

Back here, very benign with any development well to our east. Maybe a chance for something next couple of days but best opportunity looks like Monday?

[snowfall]

Hope everyone has been enjoying the festive season - hope you're feeling better soon James.

Typical summery weather here recently, apart from Thursday that gave us a burst of cold and wind and a max of 15c.

It's currently a humid 23c here. There's a fair amount of cloud around but I think our chances of seeing any storms will be low, as we're probably a bit too far west. However, it's a different story for eastern Vic with a lot more potential out that way. I hope to see something over the next few days, but we'll have to get very lucky!

[weathergasm]

Most recent sounding indicates quite deep instability around Melbourne at present. Not a guarantee of storms of course, but looks better than yesterday for the metro area.

Edit: looked at the wrong city’s sounding, Melbourne’s is very marginal. Sorry!

[Wilko]

Bit of convection inner east
Looks a little promising however there seems to be a cap on the activity

[hillybilly]

Warm 28C here yesterday. Had a good visual on a Cb cluster over the southwest wilderness which bubbled away during the afternoon, probably giving some hikers a hose down around Federation Peak. Hottest day for December for us was a very pleasant 28.9C
Today looks like a stinker. Bit of a ridge over the southeast so convection will struggle. Around 40C in northern Vic, and 30s as you head towards the coast. Might well see around 35C in the hottest TAS valleys. Expect about 28C down here in Howden

Tomorrow looks the peak for storms. Widespread near the trough. Progs showing quite patchy rainfall so could be 5mm or 25mm depending on the details and luck.

[StratoBendigo]

There's convection but it's not organizing into storms.

Hot today. But not crazy hot.

Incidentally, annual rain total for 2022 was 841mm. About 300mm more than average, and the 240mm in October was our wettest month on record. A month we'll never forget.

[Didjman]

There's convection but it's not organizing into storms.

On the Melbourne sounding, there was a cap at around 16k ft, so without forcing not a lot was going to happen. Hopefully tomorrow is better.

Melbourne fcast for tomorrow:

Humid. Partly cloudy. High (80%) chance of showers, most likely in the afternoon and early evening. The chance of a thunderstorm, possibly severe with damaging winds, heavy falls and large hail in the afternoon and evening. Winds north to northeasterly 15 to 20 km/h increasing to 45 km/h before shifting south to southwesterly 20 to 30 km/h in the early afternoon.

[hillybilly]

29.7C here today. Hottest of summer. Humid northeast breeze.

VIC peak of 41.7C at Walpeup and TAS 32.3C at Strahan.

Tomorrow has potential to be a big storm day. LI drop to -6 in southeast TAS and widely -5 for Central VIC and TAS. Storm probability is near 100%, with severe guidance looking pretty nasty. Of course, storms are always hit and miss, so sure there will be a bust for some

[Dane]

Thunder and lightning here in Sebastopol but only a few spots of rain.
Main cell is to the south so Buninyong probably picking up a bit.
Ballarat Airport AWS out of action since 3am on December 30, bit annoying.

[Amandagorural]

Was able to watch the continuous lightning going over the you yang's and out onto the bay. Direct hit here on the north Bellarine. Bucketed down for 5 mins, if that, and produced 4mm. Cooled the air down nicely. Perfect start to the year.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Mad dash to the clothes line after a storm sound of boom.
Heavy rain not lasting long, Along with a second band hitting just now..
a sure freshen up after that heat yesterday, ~37 C.

[tonycynic]

Woke up to heavy rain about 1am, had seen the blob on the radar at Ballarat but didn’t expect it to make it all the way here. No rain total, the spiders are back in the AWS. Anyone got a good method of keeping them out?

[Supercellimpact]

Beautiful storm here this morning. See link for pics.