First heat of summer? November 26-start of December

[hillybilly]

Messy few days ahead with no strong system, but overall pattern is a slow warm up as we head into summer.

Might see the Mallee reach 37C on Saturday, then cooler for a couple of days then back on the rise to the mid to high 30s.

Melbourne will probably fall short of 30C Saturday, but pretty likely to get there later in the coming week. Will be another spring without 30C which is pretty uncommon nowadays.

Some showers in the sequence, and possibly a storm Saturday, but overall mostly an event for west coast Tasmania.

In the north the monsoon may well spin up which will reset the weather pattern over much of Australia with more heat and tropical influences.

[stevco123]

So far coldest November in Melbourne in nearly 50 years, and the first without a 30 degree day since 2001.

Not bad for a city that is much more built up than 50 years ago

[mick]

Mel is about to get some wind,. it came through here at 11am, narrow band but 80k winds so I expect you will have the same soon.
Time to put the trampolines in the shed.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Yerr.. just looked at radar… best I move that washing quick.

[mick]

So far coldest November in Melbourne in nearly 50 years, and the first witha 30 degree day since 2001.

Not bad for a city that is much more built up than 50 years ago

Same here in the desert of SA, had 80mm last november, this october 80mm november so far 90mm, seasonal creek has been runnicg for 6 weeks from lateral inflows, first time since 2000 it has flowed for so long. All the roads in SA are a mess, the rain and trucks have destroyed them. Much better than 40c for sure. We are 3 years into a 10 year wet spell here, IMHO!

[tonycynic]

STW just out from the bureau, doesn’t seem to be much rain behind it though. Will be nice to be able to walk on the lawn before Xmas.

[Wilko]

Looks like QLD turn next
http://stormcast.com.au/raincast.html

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Now

[hillybilly]

10C difference between here and Melbourne yesterday. Max out in the 17s. No complaints.

Front was pretty lame, with part B inbound for tomorrow. After that a long warm up.

Weather overall is pretty dull. Guess it was inevitable. Pattern shift underway to our north with a large warm up over the continent and mid 40s popping up over the hotter subtropics.

[snowfall]

2.4mm overnight. That leaves us with 143mm for the month, which is the fourth month in a row of 100+ mm.

A cool month too. The average maximum here has been 17.5c, at least a couple of degrees cooler than usual. And the highest temp was only 25.8c. For context, the highest temps for November 2019, 2020 and 2021 were 38.7, 33.1 and 28.3 respectively. Although November 2021 here only had a slightly higher average max (17.8c) to this month.

A bit of an uneventful period coming up weather wise, other than possibly our first more significant warm spell over the weekend.

[StratoBendigo]

Nov 2022 has been very cold here. Max temp 4c below average, Minimum temp 1c below. Highest temp 28.2c.

We might get our first 30c since March on Saturday. Latest 30c since 1992 I believe.

[hillybilly]

Chilly start to Tuesday here with showers and 6C. Was another dusting on Kunanyi but all gone by about 10am.

Steady warming trend from here. Melbourne should see it’s first 30C on Saturday or Sunday and will approach 40C in the Mallee. TAS mid to high 20s. Might see our first 30C.

Apparently the hottest November day since 2019 in Perth today, so heat definitely building to the north and west. Next couple of weeks look hot and dry for much of Australia so any northerly will tap some hot air.

Could be a decent rain event for Eastern Vic and Tasmania on the backside of this approaching warm to hot event.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

I saw the sun..
the sky was blue..

[Gordon]

Finished this very cool, cloudy and (occasionally) snowy November with bang on 150mm, 1085.5mm ytd. 10mm more and we'll equal the wettest year in our 25 years here.

Warmest day so far is 23C so any heat is certainly missing us to date. Perhaps a couple of mid twenties this weekend before back to cool again?

[hillybilly]

Steady warming trend from here. Thinking Melbourne should see it’s first 30C on Saturday and at least some suburbs will approach 35C on Sunday. Monday depends a bit of the timing of the front, but more likely 20s. Northwest will see mid to high 30s Friday to Monday. Will get very windy up there, so would not surprise to se fire weather warnings posted at the same time as areas are affected by river floods

Warmth down here in Tas tends to peak in the mid to high 20s, and cool down tends to happen on Sunday.

Not a lot of rain with this system. TAS looks better, and may well get moderate falls, but Vic likely to be hit and miss.

Progs are showing a very dry two weeks ahead for much of Oz with very high temperature developing in the northern subtropics. EC and GFS have been nudging 50C in the Pilbara by the end of the week coming up. Exceptional heat in La Niña in summer does happen during breaks in the wet, so be interesting to see where that heat goes. Currently looks to stay well north of us in the southeast.

[StratoBendigo]

In Melbourne today and it's still cold.

Of note has been the record low solar irradiance in SE Australia over the past couple of months. And this has drastically reduced crop yields.

Just for reference, we average about 19.7 MJ/m3 over Spring. In Spring 2022 it was just 17.2.

[hillybilly]

Melbourne finally cracks 30C A month later than usual.

Will get close to 35C tomorrow. 27C down here in southern TAS. Nice evening on the beach though stiff southerly has come in with a trough.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Local back yard WS notes 32.2 Saturday
Already 23.5 @ 7.30am.

Worrying the long grass that couldn’t be mowed by councils due to the wet… is still long..

[Petros]

Paddocks have dried markedly around here, irrigation now in full swing, seems a good chance for storms in Gippsland this arvo and overnight. 32C here yesterday, tempered back by seabreeze mid arvo.

[hillybilly]

Paddocks have dried markedly around here, irrigation now in full swing, seems a good chance for storms in Gippsland this arvo and overnight. 32C here yesterday, tempered back by seabreeze mid arvo.

Same down here. Couple of drier weeks and a fair bit of wind.

Rain inbound for Tas, particular,y east with a bit of a wrap around on a weak low. VIC will mainly see showers in the south. Fair chance for some rumbles overnight.

Quite a wintery week ahead, with a couple of milder days, but mostly southwesterly to southeasterly flow with showers. Snow in the alps and down here about the usual peaks.