We need a dedicated thread for discussion about climate change to prevent current weather threads from being derailed.
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Hillybilly (David), Blackee (Anthony) & me, 93ben (Ben) have taken over running the forum after the passing of Rivergirl (Robyn) last year . I just wanted to let you know that I'm currently in the progress of cleaning up and updating things after I was able to finally gain access to it. We will post more later.
Hillybilly (David), Blackee (Anthony) & me, 93ben (Ben) have taken over running the forum after the passing of Rivergirl (Robyn) last year . I just wanted to let you know that I'm currently in the progress of cleaning up and updating things after I was able to finally gain access to it. We will post more later.
Climate change
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Australis(Shell3155)
- Supercell
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- Location: FTG
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who changed it...
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tonycynic
- Cumulonimbus
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- Posts: 494
- Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
- Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)
Well I might as well step up. The overwhelming consensus among climatologists seems to be that the planet is warming, the climate is changing more rapidly than ever (except for extreme events like volcanoes or meteor strikes) and humans are the most likely cause. It is a problem that we as a whole should be doing more about and failure to act will cost us a lot more than working to solve the problems. Calling out people and organisations that are working to deny ACC or misrepresenting the science is a minimum of what we should be doing.
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hillybilly
- Site Admin/Moderator
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- Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
- Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
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Probably moved beyond consensus now to become peoples lived experience. Most people now get that things are different, and there’s no real normal. This is at just 1.3C with another 0.2C happening basically every decade for the next (at least) 50 years.
Btw there are a few ways in which climate change impacts during La Niña. First is it adds to the positive SAM (climate change has led to a marked shift towards positive SAM) and La Niña adds to this. It means a dry summer in southwest Tasmania, but adds to the rainfall and flood risk for the east coast and much of inland Australia. You basically have the natural and human drivers aligned.
It also increases the available water vapour. Every degree of global warming increases atmospheric humidity by 7%. That 7% also increases energy released in heavy precipitation events by 7%, so the combined effect is the very heaviest rainfall can increases by about 14%.
The increases in humidity also leads to slowing weather systems. Rain events are more likely to get stuck. That effect is about 5% per degree of global warming.
We are at about 1.3C so the new peak rainfalls are about 20% larger than they were, and the weather systems prone to move about 7% slower. These are global numbers so some places will see more or less.
The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now.
None of this needs fancy theory. It comes from very simple principles known about for decades.
Btw there are a few ways in which climate change impacts during La Niña. First is it adds to the positive SAM (climate change has led to a marked shift towards positive SAM) and La Niña adds to this. It means a dry summer in southwest Tasmania, but adds to the rainfall and flood risk for the east coast and much of inland Australia. You basically have the natural and human drivers aligned.
It also increases the available water vapour. Every degree of global warming increases atmospheric humidity by 7%. That 7% also increases energy released in heavy precipitation events by 7%, so the combined effect is the very heaviest rainfall can increases by about 14%.
The increases in humidity also leads to slowing weather systems. Rain events are more likely to get stuck. That effect is about 5% per degree of global warming.
We are at about 1.3C so the new peak rainfalls are about 20% larger than they were, and the weather systems prone to move about 7% slower. These are global numbers so some places will see more or less.
The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now.
None of this needs fancy theory. It comes from very simple principles known about for decades.
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tonycynic
- Cumulonimbus
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- Joined: Tue Feb 15, 2011 5:57 pm
- Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)
Assuming everyone has seen this but just in case. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... SApp_Other
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Petros
- Supercell
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- Posts: 1964
- Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
- Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic
A very interesting article posted by Martin Armstrong on the Beaufort Gyre around the Nth Pole - its cyclic changes, and its potential to disrupt the Gulf Stream:
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/worl ... s-a-fraud/
https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/worl ... s-a-fraud/
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Petros
- Supercell
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- Posts: 1964
- Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
- Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic
HB can you show us this reality using the Lakes Entrance tidal data over say, last 30 years?hillybilly wrote: ↑Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:10 pm
The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now.
....or are you relying on those models, proven to be wrong all the time?
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Petros
- Supercell
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- Joined: Tue Dec 01, 2009 6:25 pm
- Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic
When they are now telling our children that it is no longer climate warming, no longer climate change, no longer climate emergency, ....but now is promoted as climate BOILING. Most rational people, many like me with daily temperature/rainfall records going back 40+ years, are realizing that this is now a climate cult.
Its all about scaring the population, google the World Economic Forum - agenda 2030.
Its been pushed as a new religion, ...pushed repetitively into our younger generation by relentless repetition by the school and university system, the globalist owned media, aka The Brave New World.
I now accept you cant tell those hypnotised by the cult to observe what's actually happening (not happening) outside their windows - we are not drowning, the dams (had they been built) would be full in Australia now, we are not experiencing abnormal fire season cycles etc.
The typical answer to those realists like me is to "trust the science" (scientology) - ignore what you observe. Clutch to any iota of climate events that bolster the narrative - to keep us all scared. To justify ridiculous CO2 reduction initiatives that are only designed to send the majority of Western Civilizations broke, in synchronism, in 6 years time. To usher in the Great Reset.
Its all about scaring the population, google the World Economic Forum - agenda 2030.
Its been pushed as a new religion, ...pushed repetitively into our younger generation by relentless repetition by the school and university system, the globalist owned media, aka The Brave New World.
I now accept you cant tell those hypnotised by the cult to observe what's actually happening (not happening) outside their windows - we are not drowning, the dams (had they been built) would be full in Australia now, we are not experiencing abnormal fire season cycles etc.
The typical answer to those realists like me is to "trust the science" (scientology) - ignore what you observe. Clutch to any iota of climate events that bolster the narrative - to keep us all scared. To justify ridiculous CO2 reduction initiatives that are only designed to send the majority of Western Civilizations broke, in synchronism, in 6 years time. To usher in the Great Reset.
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stevco123
- Supercell
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- Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
- Location: Cranbourne 78m asl
Yep, agreed. I can debate global warming with anyone at any time, and am happy to get views/points, but definitely don't believe in any of the extreme conspiracy garbage such as great reset, 15 minute cities, flat earth, HAARP etc
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Australis(Shell3155)
- Supercell
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HAARP conspiracy ?
Research facility in Fairbanks how is this a conspiracy, and I’m lead to believe there placed all around the globe, sorry wrong word, World..
15 minute cities, nope they seem to be called 20 locally here.. plenty of documentation on these also..
seems it’s unfolding pretty swiftly if notice is taken..
Research facility in Fairbanks how is this a conspiracy, and I’m lead to believe there placed all around the globe, sorry wrong word, World..
15 minute cities, nope they seem to be called 20 locally here.. plenty of documentation on these also..
seems it’s unfolding pretty swiftly if notice is taken..