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Hillybilly (David), Blackee (Anthony) & me, 93ben (Ben) have taken over running the forum after the passing of Rivergirl (Robyn) last year . I just wanted to let you know that I'm currently in the progress of cleaning up and updating things after I was able to finally gain access to it. We will post more later.

Climate change

All general weather related discussion & questions, including model discussions, longer-term outlooks & anything non-breaking weather.
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Gordon
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Fri Oct 14, 2022 1:37 pm

We need a dedicated thread for discussion about climate change to prevent current weather threads from being derailed.

Go your hardest here!
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Fri Oct 14, 2022 4:08 pm

who changed it...
tonycynic
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Fri Oct 14, 2022 8:30 pm

Well I might as well step up. The overwhelming consensus among climatologists seems to be that the planet is warming, the climate is changing more rapidly than ever (except for extreme events like volcanoes or meteor strikes) and humans are the most likely cause. It is a problem that we as a whole should be doing more about and failure to act will cost us a lot more than working to solve the problems. Calling out people and organisations that are working to deny ACC or misrepresenting the science is a minimum of what we should be doing.
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hillybilly
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Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:10 pm

Probably moved beyond consensus now to become peoples lived experience. Most people now get that things are different, and there’s no real normal. This is at just 1.3C with another 0.2C happening basically every decade for the next (at least) 50 years.

Btw there are a few ways in which climate change impacts during La Niña. First is it adds to the positive SAM (climate change has led to a marked shift towards positive SAM) and La Niña adds to this. It means a dry summer in southwest Tasmania, but adds to the rainfall and flood risk for the east coast and much of inland Australia. You basically have the natural and human drivers aligned.

It also increases the available water vapour. Every degree of global warming increases atmospheric humidity by 7%. That 7% also increases energy released in heavy precipitation events by 7%, so the combined effect is the very heaviest rainfall can increases by about 14%.

The increases in humidity also leads to slowing weather systems. Rain events are more likely to get stuck. That effect is about 5% per degree of global warming.

We are at about 1.3C so the new peak rainfalls are about 20% larger than they were, and the weather systems prone to move about 7% slower. These are global numbers so some places will see more or less.

The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now.

None of this needs fancy theory. It comes from very simple principles known about for decades.
Wilko
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Fri Oct 21, 2022 11:53 am

Great read...thanks HB
tonycynic
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Sun Oct 23, 2022 12:28 pm

Assuming everyone has seen this but just in case. https://www.theguardian.com/australia-n ... SApp_Other
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Petros
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Wed Nov 02, 2022 12:47 pm

A very interesting article posted by Martin Armstrong on the Beaufort Gyre around the Nth Pole - its cyclic changes, and its potential to disrupt the Gulf Stream:

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/worl ... s-a-fraud/
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Petros
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Wed Nov 02, 2022 7:00 pm

hillybilly wrote: Mon Oct 17, 2022 9:10 pm

The final factor if you are close to sea level is the 25cm of sea level rise. If your river is in flood that retards the flow and near the river mouth basically raises the water level by 25cm. That 25cm is increasing by 4-5mm/yr now.
HB can you show us this reality using the Lakes Entrance tidal data over say, last 30 years?

....or are you relying on those models, proven to be wrong all the time?
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