jimmyay wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 12:30 pm
I heard on the radio this morning it had all been downgraded and people were breathing a sigh of relief!
Almost every model has 100-200mm across the northeast for the week. The models don’t capture the peak falls, so would usually expect spot falls to double that.
Heavy falls through eastern Tasmania. 100-200mm northeast and up to 150mm southeast. Am expecting about 100mm at home. We are not prone to flooding so no concerns where we are.
System is really two parts and potentially three. First low coming south tonight gets captured as a trough in the westerlies.
Second low forms on the front coming up into the back of trough one, and then stays over southeast Australia for best part of a week with lots of warm air advection and record or near record precipitable water waves.
Watch out for a possible third system forming late in the period. Too far out to be confident.
I’m up in Albury for a couple of days and very humid here and warm. Rivers are completely full to the tops of the banks and usually over the banks still.