Woken up to a quick downpour this morning
5mm in the gauge...no more rain please..we live on the bottom of a hill and every time it rains over 20mm we get a flood from our neighbours not looking after their gutters
Hopefully the local Plummer can fix
Nothing compared to what is happening with our rural cousins though
Yep EC and Gfs look downright nasty
The new forecasts issued this afternoon certainly do not look good for areas already badly affected by flooding missing out on more substantial rainfall in the coming week.
Sitting waiting for the progs to settle. Currently looks substantial, with all models throwing out locally big numbers. Looks a lot wetter for eastern Tasmania which is interesting (GFS and EC both showing 100-150mm here).
Synoptics look straight forward so not expecting a major shift. First low coming out of WA with lots of showers and storms Thursday to Saturday. This then slips southeast as the upper trough builds back west with a big cutoff tracking southeast. Heavy falls to the east and south of the low. This will exacerbate flooding, and possibly add significantly to it. Pretty stressful time for those near rivers.
I know this sounds glib, but the way the more reputable models are chopping and changing for my area (the only one I'm following in great detail) makes me think the details are too volatile to predict exactly what will happen.
Large parts of Victoria are in the firing line for a lot more rain soon BUT when it falls (every day without rain is another day to allow flooding to subside) and where, remains unclear to say the least.
Yeah, the forecast models are throwing out all sorts of totals. GEM is horrific. Others not terrible, but not particularly great either. The BoM (or whatever it is now) has quite manageable totals at this stage.
Ballarat Airport reached 19.9c today so it still has not officially reached 20c in Spring yet.
Last day it reached 20 was 26th of April.
21 is forecast for tomorrow so we should get it then.
Bit of a downgrade to the forecast Rain over the coming days.
Very tricky to forecast this coming system.
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Thu Oct 20, 2022 8:20 am
It's not looking good. Widespread 50-120mm likely across most of Vic, with NE Vic looking particularly bad.
Expect significant food and potentially power shortages in coming weeks and months.
Yes no looking good at all for large swaths of NSW and VIC
Nat disaster will be declared