Lingering low with showers and rain 11-18 August

[Gordon]

Several days of wet, cool weather coming up for Victoria starting tonight.

More a gradual accumulation than a downpour, but should end up with 25mm plus over a sizeable area by the time it's done.

[StratoBendigo]

Looking like 15mm or so here. Not particularly cold though (Southwest WA seems to be getting all the polar modified air at present).

[Petros]

GFS outlook is interesting!:

[StratoBendigo]

Uggh. Cut-off ECL garbage. No good for here - just dry, warm and windy rubbish for us...

[hillybilly]

Progs are starting to go big for eastern Victoria and eastern Tasmania. Could well see flooding, though looks less significant than some of the earlier lows in the year. Worth watching Thompson which is close to full, and might crack 100%. Almost all of Victoria looks ok. Slow and complex so details matter a lot.

Unfortunately a pretty mild system so thinking a lot of rain in the snowfields, though the very highest parts might be ok. Will start out initially as snow but warmer air roles in as each day goes on.

[hillybilly]

Cloud cleared here briefly at 3am and temperature dropped to 1C so fourth frost in a row Cloud now coming in with virga in the northwest sky. A few showers likely today.

Could well see 50-100mm here from Sunday to Tuesday.

[Gordon]

A few mm already here with a short-lived thunderstorm and steady rain since. Surprised at the lack of rainshadowing for us.

A very interesting and complicated system; will be full of such surprises I think.

[StratoBendigo]

Steady rain here now. The forecast models seemed to have upped the potential totals too. Could be quite decent rain in the next week (i.e. 30-50mm). A lot will depend on the positioning of the various Lows.

[Blackee]

Yeah more models interested in a bigger event next week but again doesn't look cold so marginal for snow and with current focus in the NE, could be a season ender, or extender if cold enough.

[Macedonian]

Pouring rain in Macedon. Windy and cold as well.

Big thanks to Blackee, Ben and Shell for helping to retrieve my login details and getting me back onto the forum.

Snow pic from three years ago today. The last time we had a really good fall at home.
Nothing much this year so far. Bit of a boring winter.

FB_IMG_1660181552751.jpg (81.47 KiB) Viewed 1897 times

[Skywalker]

Things pretty much going along as predicted here with plenty of cloudy windy filth & just the odd shower pushing through.

[StratoBendigo]

6mm with Round 1 this morning. Not bad.

EC is keen for quite a bit more tomorrow.

[Gordon]

Yeah more models interested in a bigger event next week but again doesn't look cold so marginal for snow and with current focus in the NE, could be a season ender, or extender if cold enough.

6C (and 8mm) here at 620m asl, so that puts the freezing level at roughly 1200-1300m asl.

I'll be surprised if Buller and Stirling don't get a nice top up from today's incoming band at least, and I think things are looking promising beyond that.

(PS: Lovely pic Macedonian - let's hope you can repeat it soon!)

[Petros]

A trace of rain made it to the ground earlier this morning. EC/BOM show the weekend low forming more south as a Tassie event, GFS/CMC have it nearer Gabo. At least we have something to watch for a change.

If we do get decent rain Sun-Tue, that would melt a fair bit of snow, and with Lake Glenmaggie with only 15% headroom, a possible period of flushing down the Macalister - very spring-like if it does.

[snowfall]

Nice photos of snow and frost Macedonian and HB!

3.8mm here today. The sky cleared sharply following the front so a day of contrasts with steady rain followed by sunshine. Interesting week ahead with rain showing up pretty much everyday, but a complex pattern so expecting some twists and turns as things evolve.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Good to see you back on line Macedonian….

Mild morning, dry until around 11am, main rain wasn’t until mid afternoon, 5.5mm

[hillybilly]

Pouring rain in Macedon. Windy and cold as well.

Big thanks to Blackee, Ben and Shell for helping to retrieve my login details and getting me back onto the forum.

Snow pic from three years ago today. The last time we had a really good fall at home.
Nothing much this year so far. Bit of a boring winter.FB_IMG_1660181552751.jpg

Nice photo. Perhaps others have thoughts but this year seems to be tracking about the leanest year in living memory for low level snow on the mainland. Two place I watch pretty close are the Dandenongs and Blue Mountains which have pretty good records. The first is basically snow free. The second had barely any. I haven’t seen any reports of decent snow in the usual spots such as Trentham and Marysville.

Hasn’t been a particularly warm winter, but just lacked solid cold outbreaks.

Down here we’ve had quite decent low level snow. Been four solid settling events at 400m in the foothills suburbs of Hobart. Best was near 10cm. We’ve had three snow days here near sea level south of Hobart. One settled very lightly. None of this is historically unusual, but still nice to have.

[hillybilly]

Ranges caught all the rain here last night. Never looked that good. Contrast with northern Tas where there have been more heavy falls.

The system has nudged south a bit so best falls tending to fall near the Vic coast, Bass Strait and eastern and southern Tasmania. Looks good here. Should see 50-100mm. Need about 30mm to finally fill the tanks so fingers crossed.

The ephemeral streams here are flowing well after a solid May to July here (about 300mm here). Bit of a contrast with western Tasmania which is in relative “drought”. Our two dams are full

[93ben]

Nice photo. Perhaps others have thoughts but this year seems to be tracking about the leanest year in living memory for low level snow on the mainland. Two place I watch pretty close are the Dandenongs and Blue Mountains which have pretty good records. The first is basically snow free. The second had barely any. I haven’t seen any reports of decent snow in the usual spots such as Trentham and Marysville.

I agree. There hasn't been any snow in the Dandenong Ranges this year and the usual ski mountains have barely had any.

[Petros]

Latest model run has consensus for the late weekend low to position more over Tassie. Could get very wet in West Gippsland, 10-20mm in central Gippsland by Tuesday.

Still 2 days out, so things will typically change by Sunday night.