Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:02 pm

Expecting storms to develop over Metropolitan areas late afternoon into evening
Typical playing golf

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:05 pm

EC has downgraded to 32mm. That's more like it.

Expecting a downgrade to 15mm with 00z run.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:10 pm

BIG night and day tomorrow for much of the state bar the far NW they miss out, dont worry Bendigo easy 25-40mm by Sat morning

Sadly the Mallee mostly misses out but everyone else will be wet wet wet

Widespread 30 to 50mm for most of the state with many 50-80mm falls about the place over the next 36 hours.

Some places in NSW inland over 30mm from showers and stroms alreday

Moisture and instability only going to increase and it will explode out west overnight

Fun 36 hours of weather watching ahead

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:22 pm

QldTwister wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:10 pm BIG night and day tomorrow for much of the state bar the far NW they miss out, dont worry Bendigo easy 25-40mm by Sat morning

Sadly the Mallee mostly misses out but everyone else will be wet wet wet

Widespread 30 to 50mm for most of the state with many 50-80mm falls about the place over the next 36 hours.
Some places in NSW inland over 30mm from showers and stroms alreday

Moisture and instability only going to increase and it will explode out west overnight

Fun 36 hours of weather watching ahead

I would love to be on your team for this, but unfortunately every observation I'm seeing shows it being too far north and east of the Melbourne metro area. I don't look at the models as we have already established they are useless due to no planes flying etc.

See that big dry slot between Adelaide and Melbourne? That's what we will get. It will split into TAS and NSW by the look of it

If Melbourne gets more than 5mm by Saturday, it will be a big surprise to be honest

Mike · Post by **Mike** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:23 pm

Yep its a school night (well for the kids) but will be up at 11 to see radar and satellite then, should be pretty interesting (win lose or draw). Pretty mild with some full sun at times atm. Looks like a little bloom around St Arnaud area in the last few minutes. Swear that place is a storm magnet...

Skywalker · Post by **Skywalker** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:28 pm

QldTwister wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:10 pm BIG night and day tomorrow for much of the state

Your leaving yourself open to a massive "egg on your face" moment with that kind of enthusiasm Twister. Hope this event comes off for your sake.

stevco123 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:22 pm If Melbourne gets more than 5mm by Saturday, it will be a big surprise to be honest

Same here, although always happy to be proven wrong.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:30 pm

Trying to share your optimism Twister, but I'm troubled by the discrepancy between today's WATL chart http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp and the current radar, which has the action about 200km further east... again!

While I know it's early days, I have that horrible 'too far north/east feeling'

(Hopefully, it's we who'll have egg on our face

)

Sean · Post by **Sean** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:57 pm

I’m not worrying just yet. EC is indicating that Friday morning (around 7am-ish) is when it starts cranking for us in central areas.

Will see

chasersaddict76 · Post by **chasersaddict76** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 4:05 pm

Windy TV Chart almost got it right at 4pm time

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 4:17 pm

Rather clear out West. No storms in Vic. Ho hum.

Onetahuti · Post by **Onetahuti** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 4:31 pm

Sean wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 3:57 pm I’m not worrying just yet. EC is indicating that Friday morning (around 7am-ish) is when it starts cranking for us in central areas.

Will see

BOM never had much if anything for today, was predominately tomorrow into early Saturday. Latest forecast is still indicating that.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:00 pm

Seems like bom has moved the majority of the rain to tomorrow afternoon with their wording (Heavy falls possible in the afternoon and evening). To me that's a sign of defeat haha.

In all seriousness i see the forecast changing tomorrow morning to "fine morning, shower or two in the afternoon"

weathergasm · Post by **weathergasm** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:07 pm

Happy to see only a comparatively small downgrade (5mm from yesterday) in the BOM’s latest forecast.

Looking forward to seeing what tomorrow brings to the metro area

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:35 pm

Onetahuti wrote: ↑Thu Jan 28, 2021 4:31 pm BOM never had much if anything for today, was predominately tomorrow into early Saturday. Latest forecast is still indicating that.

We were actually down for 5-10mm today on WATL and in the forecasts; so far not a drop. Meanwhile, several sites east of the WATL forecast have recorded 10-20mm so far today.

It's bizarre - the synoptics favour rain where WATL forecast it, but the east somehow wins yet again. La Nina is unreal how it pulls everything east

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 5:35 pm

The trough and associated low are still developing out towards western Vic, so plenty of time to see how it ultimately evolves. Models have downgraded rainfall for here, but I'm not too surprised as I think it will be a case of being somewhat shielded from the north. Even 10mm would be handy, especially if we get a follow-up system next week, which is currently being modelled but too far out for any details.

Has been a mild, cloudy, humid day here - I'll take this any day over a blast of hot, dry north westerlies, even if it doesn't rain!

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:03 pm

Becoming warm and humid up here in the Nongs. Expecting rain to develop overnight into tomorrow with widespread embed thunder. This will be a big system. Am expecting 25-50mm in the Nongs, and this is only the start.

Next week’s Progs are eye watering. EC looks a lot like February 2005. EC has falls locally topping 200mm for the week ahead, and other models are pretty similar. Details will matter a lot, so always good to look at the progs through foggy glasses to smooth out the details

BTW not sure if people noticed but that earlier patchy rain was on a warm front. We’ve now reversed the airmass change that we had on Tuesday with the cold front

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 7:25 pm

Yep, not much summer weather happening atm. Southwest Vic could get a hammering according to some models, right through to Feb 6-7.

Wilko · Post by **Wilko** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 9:16 pm

The forecast still looks on track with the trough deepening over western Victoria tomorrow gradually extending east
The heavy rain was always forecast Friday afternoon
EC only has 130mm for next 7 days
Synoptic charts are bloody great !

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Thu Jan 28, 2021 10:59 pm

Hahah lucky I like eggs lol but i dont think so it will be wet across much of the state tomorrow.

If still like this in 24 hours then i be like ok but big 24 hours for the state not everyone get soaked but most will

Showers strating to pop out west will only increase 20mm falls around Euroa and 10mm in the Grampins

Look at the Dps around the place 15 to 19c for much of the state MOIST

NElys in Vic and Slys in SA trough right on border clear air tomorrow will go bang

Big rains in dry parts of NSW 30-50mm for parts of Central west with loads more to come

About time weather picks up but few more hot days be nice

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Fri Jan 29, 2021 5:38 am

Satpic has the rainband disappearing before our eyes. GFS is on the money with 15mm for here. Might scrape 10.

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Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31

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Re: Rain and storms with heavy falls?: January 28-31