Dose of summer heat: November 27-29

[hillybilly]

Shaping up as our first very hot spell, with exceptional heat building over WA atm, destined to be over Victoria this coming weekend. Southern areas will be warm to hot with 30s Friday and Saturday, while the north will be searing hot for three days. The Victoria spring max record of 45.8C is not out of the question at Mildura with forecasts showing around 45C. Before 2012 Victoria had never recorded a 45C in spring, so not a nice record to be potentially challenging. Thankfully, recent rain and lack of wind will take the edge off things.

Front looks mostly dry but some showers possible in southern areas around Sunday.

[hillybilly]

Not much change on the progs. Starting to look a bit hopeful for a rain band behind the change, late Saturday into Sunday for southern parts. Will run through Bass Strait, and the coastal strip. Question is how far inland it gets. Looks like 2-10mm south of the divide on current Progs.

Still looks like 45C for Mildura on Saturday. A number that high used to be exceptionally rare. From the 1980s to early 2000s Vic saw only one 45C day across all months.

[Tassiedave]

Wide variation of temperatures over the state - Tas temps today: Hobart 31.2, Campania 30.6, Friendly Beaches 29.4, Launceston 20.1, Scottsdale 16.7. Hobart averages 6.3 days per year > 30 degrees - so far this year there has been 9.

[Derwent]

Thankfully no fire alerts issued around southern Tasmania yet considering its blowing a gale

[Sean]

Looking a tiny bit cooler, but still approaching records yet again - and in a La Nina year.

Could be stormy in a weeks time though, so something to look forward to.

[Didjman]

Could be stormy in a weeks time though, so something to look forward to.

SAM is now virtually zero on a positive trend, and the MJO is forecast to be fairly strong passing over the Top End early December.

[hillybilly]

Hot one yesterday up here with 26C. Woke to humidity and fog this morning. Front slowing down a touch for Saturday, so could still end up hot in Melbourne. Some showers and storms, particularly east ahead of the change, then a rainband through Bass Strait overnight. Could well drop good falls over the islands and northern Tasmania, and possibly the coastal strip of Vic. Northern Vic and NSW will bake in a shocker. Historically this would be a remarkable record breaker if not for 2012.

[Mike]

Just had a few rain drops ,actual drops, not mizzle from some of the unstable mids floating by.Nice surprise. 16 degrees currently

[Tassiedave]

La Nina but Brisbane has had only 20 mm of rain this month and the average is about 90 mm

[hillybilly]

La Nina but Brisbane has had only 20 mm of rain this month and the average is about 90 mm

MJO has been stubborn and unfavourable. Looking like December could be rather different as a strong La Niña and MJO come into alignment. Will know soon Progs are starting to look better next week and tropics is starting to fire up.

Nice day here today, hot one tomorrow. Should go over 40C in the northwest. Saturday splits between a warm to hot and cloudy south with rain near the coast and a stinking hot north. About 45C in Mildura, which will be the second hottest day on record if it happens. Could well crack 48C in South Australia, so the national record could fall

Rainy Saturday night along the coastal strip, possible extending inland.

[snowfall]

A bit of a split between the models, with some showing the rain on Saturday hugging the coast line while a couple going further inland. Neither EC nor GFS are going for inland rain, so it’s probably the more likely scenario. Would be good to get follow up rain after last weekend, as the heat will dry things quickly, but not expecting much this time around. At least I haven’t had to water the garden this week!

[hillybilly]

Progs pretty stable, which is good for those of us in the south. Hot one today, though not to bad for areas south of about Bendigo. Stinker in the Mallee.

Tomorrow throws up a remarkable split. Coastal spots in the high teens to low 20s while north is in the 40s and northwest mid 40s. Could well see a near 30C gradient north south in western Vic Expecting we will get our second hottest day on record tomorrow for Vic in November, but could break the 2012 record if unlucky. National record of 48.7C is go, but suspect will fall around 1C below this (at Oodnadatta).

Substantial rain late through Bass Strait. This system will stand up a bit so will spread inland to about the base of the Great Divide. Progs range from 2 to more than 20mm here, so details matter a lot. Hopefully it gives northern Tasmania something.

[StratoBendigo]

38c today. A stinker but nothing like the 41.8c we got on Nov 21 last year.

Walpeup topped the State today with 44c.

[Sean]

Few records broken this month, none in Vic (that I'm aware of).

Could see a storm tomorrow. EC and GFS, meanwhile, progging a band of heavy rain through Melbourne and south vic Sunday morning. Fingers crossed

[hillybilly]

Hot 29C here today. Trough has drifted in an we sit in a col for much of southern Vic tomorrow between the deep heat low near the Murray and a shallow low in Bass Strait. Will be the odd mid level shower and possible sparks.

44.1C at Walpeup is the sixth highest November temperature recorded in Vic, and has only been exceed on two days (in 2012 and 1980). Should see a degree hotter tomorrow

Substantial rainband through Bass Strait. Could well see 50mm around the Otways, but tapering off to near zero at the divide. Expecting perhaps 10mm here for Sunday.

[James]

Some rumbles here

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Some rumbles here

I heard some heavy rain,
only to wake to a dog inside and being told of thunder,

[93ben]

Some rumbles here

Yeah my weather station recorded lightning around 1:30am.

[hillybilly]

Some rumbles here

Good to have that verified I slept through the rumbles but torrential rain at about 1:30am work me up. Lasted about 30 seconds. Suspect there was small hail given the roar. 0.3mm in the gauge

Day of contrasts today. Coast is cloudy, humid and the odd shower turning to widespread rain overnight. North stinking hot, possibly record hot. In between it gets about 5C hotter each 100km you go north

Rain looking much better on the runs. EC has light falls now reaching to Bendigo, and moderate falls across most of southern Vic. Has 10-20mm central, and potential approaching 50mm about the usual wet spots like the Otways. Be a nice way to finish a pretty crazy month of weather. Melbourne could well get an above average month.

[Didjman]

0.2mm in the gauge with the sky looking unstable in the mids which the radar confirms. Could get a rumble or two here.

Edit: getting a few high based rumbles. Tracker showing the odd CC. They are fast moving (NW-SE).