Blustery cold fronts: 18-20 July

[Sean]

About 6mm yesterday. An okay drop.

July is shaping up to be rather tame with these obnoxious high pressure systems getting in the way. The synoptics started looking a bit better not that long ago, but back to the ridges we go...

[wobbie]

July is shaping up to be rather tame

Boring pressure systems
At the absolute worst time

[StratoBendigo]

Yeah, it's all very boring. Some early indications of something from July 28 - August 4 though (multiple cold fronts). But not much rain in the mix yet. BOM extended outlook does look much better for August, especially for Inland areas.

[hillybilly]

Damp night here with fog and drizzle which added up to just over 6mm, and then it’s continued all day for another mm and a bit. Dates on about 10mm so not a complete dud, but still pretty lean for mid July. Still need about an inch to get to the average.

Here is today’s fog photo. Been foggy here most days this month under persistent moist southwesterly flow. Really thick at times today,



Progs are hopeless for those looking for some proper winter weather

[snowfall]

3.8mm here since Sunday. A bit of mizzle this afternoon, but not enough to register in the gauge. Felt quite cold today with low, thick cloud. Reached 9.3c but only briefly - most of the day was around 7/8c. It really hasn’t been much of a winter this year. Temps haven’t been too far from average here, but we’re definitely down on rainfall. June was below average and it looks like July will only be about half our average, thanks to the persistent high pressure. Really hoping for a pattern change in August. Last August we had snow here - would be great to have a repeat

[hillybilly]

3.4mm in the gauge this morning, and then a dull misty and spitty day. Went in and out of fog. Max of just 6.3C after a min of 4.8C. Not quite sure how the local AWS got to 8C. Perhaps they got a bit of sun, as we didn’t This time of year being on the south side of the Dandenongs compared to the north side can be worth a degree or so, and we are 50m higher.

Another cold spitty day tomorrow. Still need 25.8mm to get to average which isn’t looking too likely atm.

[StratoBendigo]

Well the forecast for the next 2 weeks looks very dull. Perhaps no rain at all in this time period...

That said, all the long range climate models reckon La Nina and -ve IOD this Spring.

[Derwent]

Hi from Hobart, I'm absolutely convinced this Winter is dead. Just more warm calm sunny days and frosty nights.
Just to put this into some perspective, I've been in Hobart for 15 years. Every Winter despite how much snow falls on the mountain there has always been small residual snow / ice pacts that don't melt and remain well into Spring. These can always be seen from the suburbs. This year it's not there at all , it's just bone dry.
A very sad and worrying sign of the missing fronts.

[Rivergirl]

Just seems to be the same day after day atm

[flyfisher]

Have a look at the current weak incoming low. It's in the bight, goes up into NSW bypassing Vic then heads down the NSW coast as a strong low once it gets on those warm waters. It's like there is a big rock in the road right over Victoria and every system has to go around. Will require something special to blast this blocking pattern away, but just frustratingly waste of winter rain potential - suppose that sums up 2020.

Meanwhile NZ are having a great season.

[Didjman]

.......It's like there is a big rock in the road right over Victoria and every system has to go around. Will require something special to blast this blocking pattern away, but just frustratingly waste of winter rain potential - .....

The LWT pattern and the MJO are stationary at the moment. The peaks of the LWT (near WA and NZ) rise and fall but do not move west to east as per "normal". Hence WA and NZ having a "good"winter.
The MJO has been stuck in phase 2 (near the Mediterranean) for at least a month!

Moreover, on the satpics, NW cloudbands (our traditional winter rain producers), have been seen near WA and the Tasman. Not in between.

[hillybilly]

Got a heavy shower yesterday just before 9am to close out the system. 1mm in the gauge in about 5 minutes Puts us on about 85mm MTD, so need just less than an inch to the average. Has been quite a wintery month in the Dandenongs with temperatures almost on the average (which is cold nowadays) but really a case of endless unproductive anticyclonic gloom Yesterday's max was just 5.6C which is well short of a record for us, but definitely on the nippy side of things

Not sure what the next thread should be. Some chance for showers early next week, but most will miss to our north. Perhaps a thread will encourage the weather gods to spread it a bit further south.