Victoria: Low & Cold Front - 20-24 November 2018

[Onetahuti]

Currently steady light rain, total for the event now standing at 46mm, 5.2mm since midnight.

[Skywalker]

Definitely agree with Stevco, we need things to go more southerly as it benefit us here in the west as well.

Dry, windy & overcast here at present.

[hillybilly]

The fire season well and truly pushed back to January now - which is great news. Also, the semi-drought conditions we could now say is broken in this area with more rain on the way next week. Trees will love this, hopefully, many will be saved by these multiple rain events we are now getting.

Just keeps on pilling up at home. Had 16mm since ~7am. Event now on 106mm, MTD about 180mm. About four hours from cracking a 200mm month at this rate.

Would like to see the month land in the 250 to 300mm range, which has got to be a chance given next week's charts. A big month like that keeps things green for two months, so could see us ok until Australia Day in terms of fires, which is about an average season (of course a crazy hot spell can change things).

I'm always a little nervous about drawing conclusions too far into the new year as both 1982 and 2008 saw substantial rain at the start of summer, but a horrible February.

[JasmineStorm]

great totals folks. Cyclone is moving very slowly NNE, so the dynamics will change later this afternoon with a more SSW stream bringing areas further west into it IMO. End totals are going to be very big in the Yarra catchment.

2 cents worth on the 10am sat pic.

[jimmyay]

Cold day for Melb for this late in November, only about 12 degrees.

This system this week and the one next could end up being our best rains for about a year.

[tonycynic]

Is that the final burst of rain going through now or are we expecting more? Looking like it is thinning out but that band over Tasmania might reform over Bass straight.

[hillybilly]

More to come Tony. The low will throw off a series of showery bands. EC has showers quite thick through til 10pm tonight, then a second burst tomorrow morning. It's in the process of clearing, but slowly.

We've clocked up 40mm since I emptied the gauge at ~6:30am. Puts the event on about 130mm and our month not far off 210mm. The November record for the Dandenongs is 257mm in 1960 so we are starting to get up there

BTW significant storm surge on the Gippsland Coast. Bit of flooding around Lakes Entrance this morning. The photo below is behind the Aldi.

[JasmineStorm]

Decent surge there HB.

The Precip water level is now increasing between the surface and 850 hPa in central areas. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

Once the surface temps drop on land a couple of degrees, the South to South West feed from Port Philip bay will enhance the moisture/warm advection process. Will be interesting to see the effects from the bay over the next 12 hours as the low stalls in the Tasman.

[hillybilly]

Bit of a lull in the showers here atm. Scored 43mm here today, 143mm for the event and 203mm for the month.

Month is really turning out to be a bumper one for central Vic, but mixed bag elsewhere. Hopefully next week spreads it around a bit more.

[jimmyay]

Wild afternoon....some guys were even surfing the bay at South Melbourne beach I spotted on the way home!

[snowfall]

Amazing falls of rain over the past 24 hours in parts of east central. I wasn't expecting all that much here today, but so far we have 10mm. It has been drizzling for the last few hours, and still going. This takes the event total to 42mm and the MTD to 110mm. Nice to finally have an above average month for rainfall. The last months with similar totals were back in May and June. A brief maximum today of 11c, but mostly around 9c for the day, so we're very much back to heating the house currently!

[StratoBendigo]

Just 14c for a max today. Very cold for late-Nov. No measureable rain today though.

[flyfisher]

Monbulk creek near my house is flooded after all that rain. So I did a bit of a "flood chase" and I will try and post some images. About 10cm more and our street goes under, however rain has backed off for now.

[Macedonian]

Colder here today than yesterday 3.4C min to 7.2C max.

[hillybilly]

Foggy morning with drizzle here (still). Squeezed out a further 4mm since midnight, so event somewhere near 140mm. I'll add it up when it stops raining, Looks like the showers won't completely clear until Monday arvo, with a couple more troughs coming through on Sunday and Monday.

Our max yesterday was 9.6C which is chilly, but not that unusual for November here. We've had snow here in December in 2002 and 2006 (not sure if its an El Nino thing ). I find it funny that the media do the "but it's almost summer" whenever its cold, but at the same time do the "4 seasons in one day". It's Melbourne and it can be cold at any time of the year

Looks like another significant low for Tuesday and Wednesday, which will peak near the ranges and east. Does look quite good for southern areas again, but the gradient is tight so slight shifts north of south could make big differences. Current EC has 30mm here.

[flyfisher]

hmm, not sure if those images worked. I can see it on my computer but when looking on the phone I cannot. I will try just one again to test this.

[flyfisher]

Ok, that seems to have worked - I did not publicly share the image in google so I have changed that setting. Here are the others...

[Macedonian]

It hasnt been higher than 9C here since Wednesday night at 9pm.
That is a prolonged cold period for late November.

[hillybilly]

Another 1.8mm yesterday and overnight. We snuck up to 10.6C yesterday, so just one sub ten for us.

Just the odd hit and miss shower today and tomorrow. Uppers are still chilly and winds onshore, so might add some more or not

Bit disappointing but the next two systems seem to be evaporating from the progs. Low for Tuesday and Wednesday is drifting north on the runs. Starting to look like a non event for southern Victoria. The ranges and northern Victoria look a better chance, though even some models are keeping the rain mostly north of the border. Then... could be a stinker on Saturday next weekend. EC has 35C give or take for Melbourne

Great photos flyfisher. This rain has been so awesome up here. Even managed some puddles in the garden here for a while.

[Macedonian]

What was your event total HB?
I ended up with 50.5mm