System looks to be on track. Very warm night, with a current temperature of 25C in Melbourne
![Surprised :o](./images/smilies/icon_e_surprised.gif)
Trough sits in western Victoria and is slow moving, expected to move through central areas late arvo. There is a decent shot of low level moisture racing south through NSW with dew point jumping from around 5C to near 15C. By early arvo dew points ahead of the trough will be widely into the teens, and instability indices showing significant instability. The LI will be widely in the -3 to -5 range, so lots of potential. Low level shear is significant with northeasterly winds near the surface, becoming northwesterly aloft. This will help with storm structure. Overall winds are fairly modest, so storms will not move too quickly.
Expecting the radar and lighting tracker to light up from about 2 to 3pm, with lots of storms through central areas around rush hour
Wednesday looks like a bit of an inbetween day as the main low moves into western areas, then a secondary system develops near Bass Strait and becomes dominant. Heavy showers and rain becoming widespread Thursday and Friday, with most models showing falls in the 50-100mm range for southern and mountain areas east of about Geelong. Looks like a 100mm system here, based on current guidance.