Thought I might as well slip in a date range with the weather pattern showing signs of change. An initial trough will move through on Wednesday with some instability through central areas before amplifying on the NE Ranges and becoming part of a rain event for large parts of NSW. High pressure will follow but there are signs of an decent upper low moving into Victoria early to mid next week. Let the downgrades and upgrades begin
Last edited by JasmineStorm on Wed Oct 10, 2018 11:33 am, edited 1 time in total.
Thanks for the thread Jasmine. After my last few efforts I didn’t want to jinx the week ahead
Warm day here today with a few spitty showers. Hoping for a few mms tomorrow, but timing of the tough is not good for central areas, too early so the convection will likely all fire in northeast and eastern areas.
Looking a bit thundery on the weekend, and next week looks very wet in EC and the new GFS model. Too early to get excited
Those cells in the Riverina are showing some nice rotation
EC & UKMet are putting that upper low next week over the S.A border around -20c at 500 hPa. I've seen water bombs get triggered with these set ups, if it gets a converging moisture feed from the NW and NE. EC is starting to hint this.
Picked up a mm of mizzle this afternoon. Thick hill fog atm.
Good to see a bit in the far northwest (Mildura is currently having a record dry year) and northeast.
EC, GFS, GFS-V3 and CMC starting to get rather excited about next week EC has been the most consistent and earliest onto the developing low so hopefully it comes through.
Nice drop for western areas of NSW. Broken Hill's 34mm should settle the dust for now. Albury 24mm.
The expected daily downgrades and upgrades is well underway from the models for next week as the position of the upper low wobbles around, taking the surface low with it.
Nice drop for western areas of NSW. Broken Hill's 34mm should settle the dust for now. Albury 24mm.
Broken Hill got more rain in 10 minutes (29mm) than it has seen in the previous 9 months (24mm). They were running driest year on record. The YTD total is still dismal, but much better
GFS3 and CMC looking good for next week. EC synoptics similar but latest run has pulled the rain to mostly north of the divide. Would guess a wiggle, at this stage. The EC ensemble show a big range of outcomes, so very uncertain as to what the detail will be
The charts are looking rather wet and stormy next week - right on que for my annual fishing trip. My last fishing trip was early December 2017 and we all know what happened then.
So it seems I just have to make some outdoor plans to bring on rain
flyfisher wrote: ↑Thu Oct 04, 2018 8:16 am
So it seems I just have to make some outdoor plans to bring on rain
Good of you to take one for the team flyfisher ; we could certainly do with some wet weather here now. Anyway, depending on your trip location, a bit of rain may help the fishing?
Certainly a drought hot spot there Gordon. We have been fortunate up here, it’s below average but nowhere near a drought so far. September was the first real dry month for the southern wet season.
Cool with a south easterly today, looks like a nice warm weekend ahead.
Nice drop for eastern parts NSW with that inland low. Lots of 50 to 80mm west of Sydney. with near 50mm for Sydney.
There has been an eastward trend by the models for next week’s upper and surface low’s with most quite aligned until the latest 18z run which GFS and Icon has dragged back west. More uncertainty now than 24 hours ago. Here is the latest on GFS for Wednesday morning, an upper tropospheric polar injection which can be explosive if they line up with moisture from the North
The BoM's severe weather department will be getting sweaty palms after the 00z runs today. Icon, Access, GFS, CMC and UkMet all have their different volatile scenario's for certain areas of Vic. EC is not really onboard and has the high ridging in quite quickly.
Very hard to read at the moment, needs another 24 hours I think but at least it's a chance for once
Icon, Access, GFS, CMC and UkMet all have their different volatile scenario's for certain areas of Vic. EC is not really onboard and has the high ridging in quite quickly.
Models are seriously spraying for next week, and the ensemble members for individual models are spraying. EC this morning had totals ranging from ~0 to ~50mm+ for Melbourne.
Really need this one to deliver, but just not confident.
Icon, Access, GFS, CMC and UkMet all have their different volatile scenario's for certain areas of Vic. EC is not really onboard and has the high ridging in quite quickly.
Models are seriously spraying for next week, and the ensemble members for individual models are spraying. EC this morning had totals ranging from ~0 to ~50mm+ for Melbourne.
Really need this one to deliver, but just not confident.
Yes, low confidence indeed as they are all different scenarios. EC is the best in the world at picking the strength of a ridge, which lessens my enthusiasm for the moment