Vic: Never ending High, June 10 to 20 2017

[JasmineStorm]

A strong blocking high scenario is settling in for at least the next week and maybe beyond. This thread will contain plenty of fogs, frosts, gloom, sunny breaks and not much rain.

[hillybilly]

Each morning the last few days wake up and look at the progs to see if this blocking sequence is showing an end. Today's prognosis. EC trying for a front in seven days, other models just have high after high.

Guess that gives us about a 25% chance of the highs breaking down in the coming week

Mild weather both day and night here.

[JasmineStorm]

Another frosty start here, down to -1c. Long term average is 5 minimums under zero in June which has already been reached.
As HB mentioned, EC starting to show some signs of the frontal conveyor belt shifting north next weekend.

[stevco123]

I've been a microclimate the last 3 or 4 days where the temp fails to rise as much as other suburbs. I noticed this with Frankston as well and Cerberus too but not as much

For example today we have failed to crack 12 degrees.

[hillybilly]

5.9 to 11.2C here today. Nice day, but starting to get rather a lot of them Feels like an El Nino winter, but we don't have an El Nino

No change in progs - very weak front brushing the coast tomorrow might introduce just a bit of drizzle. Otherwise seven to ten days of highs.

Some pretty worrying trends out west with SW WA and parts of SA west of Adelaide yet to see their "autumn" break.

[Adam37]

Speaking of SW WA they have had some quite incredible max temps for winter, Perth has been in the low to mid 20s for days
way above average.

[StratoBendigo]

12z GFS throws up a cold and dryish Antarctic blast for Sunday. No rain North of Divide... But it is GFS and 6 days out.

[hillybilly]

EC, CMC and GFS now got a strong front for Sunday. Way out so would read a lot into it yet.

Looks like a drizzly arvo today on southern areas with a front sneaking around the high.

Speaking of SW WA they have had some quite incredible max temps for winter, Perth has been in the low to mid 20s for days
way above average.

Has been record warm by a significant margin. Also, shaping up as a record dry May-June for them unless the second half of the month delivers significant rain. They are suffering the loss of the fronts

[Tassiedave]

Some rainfalls in the last 24 hours include Mt Read 30 mm, Strathgordon 14 mm, Smithton 7.4 mm, Cradle Mountain 7 mm, Strahan 6.4 mm, Flinders Island Airport 5 mm, Scottsdale 4 mm, Bridport 3.8 mm, Low Head 3.5 mm, Launceston Airport 0.2 mm, Launceston 0 mm, Hobart 0 mm. Hobart has not registered any rain in June so far.

[JasmineStorm]

Foggy 3c start up here. To only have 3mm of rain by the middle of June is unheard in Kyneton. Most of our rain comes in winter from the North West cloud bands and stronger fronts. It's not unusual to see blocking highs in early June but this is now unusual. GFS on its 18z run still thinks that front on Sunday will be a decent cold pool and spawn a cracker of an ECL off east Vic and NSW.

[hillybilly]

A foggy spitty day up here with 0.6mm. Looks like winter, but a quite mild day with a max of 10C. MTD just over 20mm here. Need it to get a hurry along.

GFS and CMC losing interest in Sunday's front after getting excited on earlier runs

[JasmineStorm]

Models are still hit and miss on the Sunday front but EC 00z has just produced a shriving polar attack for this Sunday on Victoria with the uppers around -30c. That might go atomic off the east coast on NSW / Vic. Longer term runs are showing a significant shift in the weather pattern at the end of June with the high pressure ridge getting run out of the neighbourhood

[Sean]

A few sprinkles, clouds and relatively cool temps have kept things moist, but it's rather dry.

This constant procession of highs is really, really boring now, g-dammit. I wish we could push them away with giant machines.

We haven't even been blessed with the glorious blue skies they usually provide. It's like what f-ing good are you

[hillybilly]

1.2mm for yesterday. Drizzled for a few hours but very light most the time. MTD almost 25mm.

EC, ACCESS and CMC completely dropped the front for Sunday. GFS still trying to produce something.

At this rate we could threaten the Vic June low rainfall record. Current Vic MTD is about 8mm. The three lowest values on record are
194406 22.40mm, 191406 22.58mm, 200606 24.77mm (two El Nino years and one a near miss El Nino).

[JasmineStorm]

Sun is out north of the divide this morning, 3c overnight low.

nice stats Hillybilly. I can't remember a June being this dry in Kyneton. Even big El Niño years would have had double figures mm by now.

All the models have dropped the Sunday front south. At the moment it's a clipper at best. This thread seems to have no end ATM

[StratoBendigo]

Another morning, another 1 degC start to the day...

We've had 1mm of rain for June so far. Not a great start for one of the wettest months of the year here. Looks like some sort of breakdown in the pattern around June 24?

[Macedonian]

Booming bright sun at Mt Macedon in June and it has been like this a lot lately.
Yesterday even saw a double digit max at my place for the first time since May 19th.
Yday it reached 10.5C

[StratoBendigo]

00Z GFS is very depressing... Looks like an upper-level High pressure system over the top-end is having an influence. They're notorious for not letting anything from the South push through.

[Adam37]

I was just speaking to my dad in Perth and it's 26c there now!! June is normally the wettest month (180mm) for Perth
but they have recorded zilch!

[hillybilly]

Progs have basically zilch for whole of Vic next ten days. Not even clear when it might rain after 10 days.

Perth by far the warmest start to June on record.

Maybe one day we might have a proper cold winter, but looks like this year won't be it