Vic: April 12 -22 Cool, mild, warm, then a potential upper low

[stevco123]

Not too fussed considering the highest ever max for Melbourne is 35 and the highest average being 24 so not concerned just yet.

[StratoBendigo]

Upgrade on 00Z GFS, both for rain on Friday (30-40mm) and the cold front next week.

[JasmineStorm]

It's been a fascinating low pressure trough this one. Every 12 hours, the models inch it south eastward and rainfall totals upgrade accordingly. Access R and GFS now have me around 20 to 30mm, CMC near 50mm. 2 days ago it was lucky to be a drop. EC has had extensive 40 to 50mm falls across the north west in the last 24 hours, so it will be interesting what EC serves up for the 00z run across the state. The BoM this afternoon are also publicly getting the farmers north of the divide all excited

[Gordon]

'Rain, possible heavy falls' in BOM's forecast for tomorrow or Friday over a very wide area of western/central Vic, including places as far apart as Mildura, Warrnambool, Maryborough, Bendigo and Echuca. We are currently just outside the 'zone' here...

[JasmineStorm]

EC 00z has just wobbled the trough eastward once again.... watch for the rainfall upgrades north and south of the divide

[hillybilly]

Latest batch of progs are much wetter. EC now got widespread 20-50mm falls extending into central areas including Melbourne next few days.

Other models pretty consistent. Heaviest falls currently tending to focuss in northwest to north central.

Good to see models swinging towards more rain.

[StratoBendigo]

Might need a boat if EC comes off - as in 65mm!

It also has an epic polar blast on April 26.

[Geoff]

Oh well, lets just see what eventuates. Remember up until a couple of days ago some of the models were indicating mostly dry weather through the rest of the month. EC currently forecasting 72mm here in the next nine days!

[JasmineStorm]

It's becoming interesting this set up.....Access R is starting to show a juicy convergence zone on Friday afternoon in north central Vic and northern country. SB might need that boat in Bendigo if that comes off

EC upgraded here to 40mm + .....

Precip water values going into the 30 to 40mm range....

Looking forward to the next model runs in the morning

[snowfall]

It sure is looking interesting now and nice to see some further upgrades, especially this close to the actual event. The key will be tomorrow's models. Very mild here today - reached 24c. Currently 17.4c and a fair bit of wind.

[StratoBendigo]

Forecast models are lining up for 50mm+. Excited, even daunted...

[JasmineStorm]

Looks like 30 to 40mm is the range for me across most models. Very handy if that happens.

A nice little tropical feed coming into NW Victoria this morning. http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

It's certainly a juicy system looking at the BoM's 4 day, 8 model combination this morning.

[hillybilly]

Was about to add that image JasmineStorm

Great autumn break coming up if that eventuates. Almost ideal timing too just before ANZAC Day. The unseaonal warm weather we've had will mean any crops and pastures will take off like a rocket.

Models look to be quite remarkable in their consistency. Good falls Mallee, Wimmera, North Central and possible northeast. OK falls into central areas. Only areas that might miss out are the far southwest and Gippsland. Slow moving complex system that looks to just wiggle the rain around covering most areas.

Let's hope it doesn't disappoint.

Proper front for next week.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

when do I have to have this mowing done by..?

[Geoff]

when do I have to have this mowing done by..?

If you can't get it done today, then Saturday might be okay Shell. Next week not looking favorable.
EC has dropped our expected rainfall from 72mm to 30mm, that'll do fine.

[Vic]

Latest model by GFS is upping the ante by extending the area of 50mm+ falls....

[JasmineStorm]

Another nice warm one and into the 20's with the clouds coming across up here now. Interesting that the Indian Ocean has warmed off the coast of Oz and cooled off East Africa in the last 7 days. All of a sudden we are getting NW tropical feeds with another cracker of a trough early next week before the cold front. The southern wet season is arriving

This trough combination could get very wet tomorrow with the moisture coming into it. It's a tricky little bugger..... here’s my 2 cents worth on top of the 1.40pm IR sat pic.

[StratoBendigo]

Already some good rain totals in the far West. i.e 8mm in Edenhope and also Walpeup.

[Hawker]

Yes, could do Jasmine anything. Bom 3 day model has a bulls eye in the western part of the north central district,
of up to 100mms in 24 hours for tomorrow arvo into night. Which fits in with your combining troughs scenario.
BOM might have to think about flood watches. The Loddon river had a nice flow after the last rain.
Cheers Chris

Edit just looked at your post again and that is your Noah's ark zone

And Cairn Curran is not far off full

[Tassiedave]

Launceston reached a maximum of 25.4 degrees today at 248 pm. Other temperatures in Tassie today included 25.7 on Flinders Island, 26.5 in Strahan, 26.4 Fingal, 22.7 in Hobart and 24.1 at Hobart Airport. 24 degrees forecast in both Launceston and Hobart tomorrow. The forecast temp for Hobart next Wednesday is 12 degrees!! At 430 pm today Brisbane and Launceston were both 23 degrees!