Another long warm and dry spell: April 9-

[Macedonian]

Seems like all of southern Vic is trending towards drought, the past 2 years. I suppose timing is right for a drought too. It's been 'wet' since 2011 (so 14 years). Previous to that, the millennium drought lasted for about 15 years (from 1996ish to 2011).

Unfortunately Victoria hasn’t been wet. It’s been below average for those 14 years. In total nearly a years worth of rain has gone missing since 2011. Almost every autumn has been below average which is when the drying is strongest as the winter fronts are pushed south by rising temperatures. It’s also been the hottest period on record. Here’s the data.

Since 1997 Victoria has lost about four years worth of rainfall.

http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/c ... eriod=6190

HB I think people mean that it has been wet compared to the Millenium Drought.

[QldTwister]

Stunner day yesterday and summer like warm sunny breezy today loving it house open loads of washing done drying quickly outside bright warm and airy crazy to think its mid April

Nice rainband in Tas but nothing for Vic

Cooler tomorrow then Warm Tues to Fri before much stronger cooling and a few showers for easter Weekend

[hillybilly]

Warm one here today with 23C. A bit of rain but mostly shreaded so far. Should thicken up tonight down here, but not quite sure when ti trust the rain forecasts as stalled fronts can be fickle - in the right spot can pour down but a bit north or south and you miss out.

Hot on the mainland. Melbournes 31.8C apparently the warmest April day since 2014. Lots of low 30s. A bit cooler tomorrow but looks mostly dry Dry week unfortunately for most of the mainland.

Stevco Australian rainfall data goes back to the 1850s and the gridded data back to 1890. That data is all there for anyone to see. You can look at the maps. Meanwhile our farmers and fire fighters suffer record heat and rainfall which is no longer reliable.

[hillybilly]

Very welcome 12mm here overnight. Pretty general 10-20mm which will be very welcome after a very dry three month. We were getting close to to having to order water which cost ~$150 a load so good timing.

Scraping Gippsland but won’t make it further north.

Cooler day today, actually quite cold down here and generally mild for Victoria, then warming up before before Easter.

Signs that the whole southeast will get a low with showers and patchy rain for around Sunday. Waiting to see it settle in the progs.

[StratoBendigo]

12z GFS has a spectacular Anzac Day special - deep trough, bombing Low, alpine snow, Autumn break for Western Vic. EC has a ridging High and clipper front.

[hillybilly]

12z GFS has a spectacular Anzac Day special - deep trough, bombing Low, alpine snow, Autumn break for Western Vic. EC has a ridging High and clipper front.

Almost time for a new thread. Progs are pretty jumpy but does look like an autumn break of sorts for much of Victoria. Might slip under more northern parts but currently looks pretty hopeful for the southeast. Could then form another deep Tasman Sea low with more big waves for NSW and its battered beaches.

Nice day here today but cold. Max of just 15.8C. Garden looks completely refreshed… with 14mm in the end. Hoping for a top up on the weekend.

Could have milder days here now, and warm almost hot for the mainland, particularly for the middle of April.

[QldTwister]

Change is a coming all models have a cut off low his weekend with showers, patchy rain and isol storms with poss heavy rain in Gippy and NSW coast sadly little to nothing for north Vic.

Then mid/late next week another front on way from west with maybe a tropical connection

Dont worry all rain is coming, I know not soon enough for many, but we are one day closer

For me gonna enjoy the last 4 days of warmth and sun before cold season begins, after an amazing warm season went so fast

45 to 50 days over 30c around Melb one of highest on record ripper warm season number nice storms too locally

[StratoBendigo]

Gotta laugh at the forecast models. EC and IC are all excited about a very rainfall productive stalling trough Sunday night.... Hilarious if true.

[Lighthouse]

Presume any cutoff low will heavily favour eastern areas of the state but hopefully this one is the exception to the rule. But I won’t be betting on it.

[StratoBendigo]

Presume any cutoff low will heavily favour eastern areas of the state but hopefully this one is the exception to the rule. But I won’t be betting on it.

I wouldn't bet anything on it either. But it has piqued my interest. As for this April, it'll be interesting to see if it ends up our hottest on record. April 2005 is the current record holder.

[hillybilly]

Geez it’s hard to read the models for the weekend. Guess a thread, for something that could give us all 2mm or 25mm. Heavier falls likely for Gippsland and western Tasmania. Before then a couple more warm, almost hot days for much of the southeast. If the coming system doesn’t deliver April’s going to end up dry month for the southeast.