A series of strong fronts to start April

[hillybilly]

Active weather sequence coming up with multiple fronts to start April. First is on Thursday, then another late Friday, then late Saturday then late Sunday. They get stronger and colder in the sequence, with snow developing on the peaks which could get heavy in Tasmania. The exact details will vary, but should add up in coastal parts of Victoria and western Tasmania, with showers spreading inland around each of the frontal passages.

[StratoBendigo]

Zero rainfall forecast here, despite the cold fronts. More blowing dust for us then.

[hillybilly]

Zero rainfall forecast here, despite the cold fronts. More blowing dust for us then.

Yep, unfortunately a south of the divide system for Victoria. Fronts on today’s models look a bit better, but still mostly staying coastal and ranges for Victoria.

Meanwhile heavy rainfall for Queensland after last months widespread record falls. Precip water values are approaching 65mm in Brisbane today which is really up there

[Lighthouse]

The latest long term BOM outlooks is dire for most of Victoria but especially south-western Victoria. Let’s hope BOM gets it as wrong as they have these past two years which resulted in unprecedented and record breaking drought for the south-west despite it predicting above average rainfall for much of that period.

[hillybilly]

First front in the sequence today. Shot of colder air coming into the low which still sits in the Tasman Sea. Showers will tend to come from the south to southwest and be slow moving so will be shared around but mostly light falls as they are hit and miss. It’s quite unstable so expect some rumbles during the arvo.

More classical front for tomorrow night with showers.

Unfortunately for Victoria. The decline in autumn rainfall is really strong now around 30% http://www.bom.gov.au/cgi-bin/climate/c ... 5&ave_yr=0. That’s climate change and basically comes into play every single autumn. Unfortunately the highs are getting stronger as the tropics expand. You can still get lucky, so fingers are firmly crossed.

[StratoBendigo]

It's blocking highs for the next 6 weeks here.

As I said, a good chance that 2025 will be our driest year on record.

[QldTwister]

Amazing flooding in SW Qld so so much water

No water in Vic sadly coastal showers and in the hills east of Melbourne get some rain but W NW N Vic getting nothing for at least the next 2 weeks sad times drought rolls on only good news is your another day closer to rain

Here in SE burbs sure get another 10-15mm next few days but happy to not get any had 150m so far this year give to those that need it

W Tas looking wet but little for Vic away from W n S gippy, east of Melbourne and SW cosat

[Australis(Shell3155)]

[hillybilly]

Nice grab Shell Water spouts / weak coastal tornados are surprisingly common in southern Victoria this time of year, particularly around the Otways and South Gippsland where land perturbs and lifts the unstable flow. In one day alone we saw four at Sandy Point a few years back, all sat under coldies. All F0 and shreaded within a couple of kms of crossing the coast. Warm ocean temps and the firsts shots of colder air create intense convection.

Good to see a few heavy showers last night but patchy. 4mm at our place which is welcome, with the odd local fall over 10mm in southern Victoria and Tasmania.

Next front overnight. This one is. More classical westerly front and will only just scrape Victoria. Better in Tasmania where it will be heavy on the west coast.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

2.79mm around 4am
Not sure if it was a tad windy with it also.

[Macedonian]

1.5mm overnight and a cold 4° start. Chilliest for autumn so far. Some nice autumn colour starting to show here at Mt Macedon. I was out driving between MM and Fawkner yesterday. So desperately dry and brown, same out Kyneton when I was there on Friday. Victoria has such a harsh dry climate. Never enough rain.

[Gordon]

An even 1mm here, making a mighty 2.5mm for the thread . Certainly cold, with 5C when I got up and still only 7C.

A few observations re rainfall trends - and I can only speak for our area. Our first 13 years here (1996 to 2009) were way drier than the last 15 years. I haven't crunched the averages, but for the first block, we had only had two years over 29-year average of 826mm, and didn't once come close 1000mm.

It all changed dramatically for the better in 2010, when we 1072mm, then 1094mm in 2011. Since 2010, 7 years have exceeded our average, and we also had our wettest year in 2022: 1132mm. Even 2023 wasn't too bad at 755mm.

In summary, I'm hating this current dry spell, with 530mm for 2024 being our driest year, and 2025 running below average so far, but we're miles off a longer-term drying trend here.

[Lighthouse]

I’m not sure of the distance between Gordon and Aireys Inlet as the crow flies but it wouldn’t be very far yet my experience is nothing like yours. Been here for nine years and only 2021 was above average, with 2022 close but no cigar. Most years have been well below average, 18, 19, 23 and 24 being exceptionally dry. Yet this year looks like it could be the driest yet. Obviously something to do with topography as very little of that rain from the north makes it to the coast and overall, we are relying on that tropical moisture for rain.

[Macedonian]

An even 1mm here, making a mighty 2.5mm for the thread . Certainly cold, with 5C when I got up and still only 7C.

A few observations re rainfall trends - and I can only speak for our area. Our first 13 years here (1996 to 2009) were way drier than the last 15 years. I haven't crunched the averages, but for the first block, we had only had two years over 29-year average of 826mm, and didn't once come close 1000mm.

It all changed dramatically for the better in 2010, when we 1072mm, then 1094mm in 2011. Since 2010, 7 years have exceeded our average, and we also had our wettest year in 2022: 1132mm. Even 2023 wasn't too bad at 755mm.

In summary, I'm hating this current dry spell, with 530mm for 2024 being our driest year, and 2025 running below average so far, but we're miles off a longer-term drying trend here.

The end of '97 to 2009 was hell on earth in Victoria. Most people don't seem to remember how bad it was.
We bought our place at Mt Macedon in 2003 as a direct response to how dry it was in Melbourne at that time.
For me it was either find somewhere with a less hot/more rainy climate (hence Mt Macedon) or leave Victoria completely.
As an east coast native, Melbourne's heat and dryness was just too much for me. I lived in Melbs from late '95 to the end of 2009 and my abiding memory is of dry, hot weather with meagre rainfall.
Moved permanently to Mt Macedon just as the drought finally broke at the end of 2009/ start of 2010. Can actually remember torrential gorgeous rain on that NYE and the next day that came very close to flooding the house we had just moved into at Bolobek.
We have been very lucky since then with good rainfall totals. Even last year we had a total in the 900's when everyone locally had much much less.
It's still not enough for me. We have sold at Mt Macedon and are moving back to the Blue Mountains in NSW next month. Average rainfall up there of about 1500mm mostly in the warm half of the year. I've had enough of the dry Victorian summers. Can't enjoy them at all when you have a big garden and the fire risk/insurance issues will just be too great going forward.

[Didjman]

It's still not enough for me. We have sold at Mt Macedon and are moving back to the Blue Mountains in NSW next month. Average rainfall up there of about 1500mm mostly in the warm half of the year. I've had enough of the dry Victorian summers. Can't enjoy them at all when you have a big garden and the fire risk/insurance issues will just be too great going forward.

Hey Macedonian,
I work in the insurance industry and depending on where you are moving too - insurance premiums may not be a lot better (unless you have checked already )

[Gordon]

Wow, so much fascinating info there, I don't know where to start.

Macedonian, sorry you'll be leaving - I'll lose my closest high elevation neighbour! Love your reports, although I did notice they had become fewer and now I can see why. Best of luck with the move and I hope we'll get some Blue Mountains reports.

Lighthouse, yes the distance Isn't great. My late parents and my brother (now in QLD - being swamped in Hervey Bay ) lived in Bellbrae/ Anglesea for decades, so I made the drive regularly. Maybe direct line distance to Aireys would be 100km tops. (On a clear day, I can see the northern Otways/ Boonah area from here!) Mum & Dad kept very good rainfall records but I suspect they've been lost. Mind you, I only have to travel 25 minutes to the Parwan Valley near Bacchus Marsh, and the average annual rainfall halves, so I guess you don't need much difference in distance for dramatic changes in rainfall. I had a local farmer mate with a big property (long since sold), and he reckoned his annual rainfall dropped by an inch a mile heading north to south. Macedonian's mountain vs town reports have usually told a similar story.

In any case, I agree with Macedonian that the late 1990s and 'noughties' (aka the Millenium Drought) was a shocker for its duration, and also its 40C plus days. Somewhere I have a Weekly Times front page, with a meteorologist promising desperate farmers that it would in fact rain again one day. (He was right - eventually!) I have no idea if Aireys etc was spared (could well have been).

And Didjman, I'll be sure to seek your opinion if I ever contemplate leaving here - which is unlikely in the foreseeable future .

[Macedonian]

Thanks Gordon. My new house is 940m above sea level at Leura. The village cbd and railway station is 985m. Looking forward to the change and def looking forward to the end of this week coming because it's my last ever working week, phew!
Didjman, thanks for that advice re. Insurance. We have had our new place insured in the BM for the last year. It's worth less than half of what our acreage at Mt Macedon is worth so that's reflected in the premium. I was more concerned about the risk of becoming uninsurable at Mt Macedon if there is another bad fire, which is overdue at MM. It's 42 years since Ash Wednesday wiped the place out. We are front-line on two sides to the state forest here at MM.
I've lost my nerve for that kind of exposure to wildfires.

[Didjman]

Didjman, thanks for that advice re. Insurance. We have had our new place insured in the BM for the last year. It's worth less than half of what our acreage at Mt Macedon is worth so that's reflected in the premium. I was more concerned about the risk of becoming uninsurable at Mt Macedon if there is another bad fire, which is overdue at MM. It's 42 years since Ash Wednesday wiped the place out. We are front-line on two sides to the state forest here at MM.
I've lost my nerve for that kind of exposure to wildfires.

Wow-42 years since I saw burnt bracken falling in Little Bourke St! My parents were living in Newham at the time and said the range was burning from end to end. While a beautiful area, I understand your concern as everything is still so dry.

[hillybilly]

Went for a hike on the mountain yesterday, up the Zig Zag and down the Ice House Track. If anyone’s ever in Hobart, that’s one of the better hikes on Kunanyi / Mt Wellington. A few photos which you can also see on the Tasmanian Snow Reports Facebook page and on BSky. Was about 5cm across the top, with drift to around 10cm. First snow was settled at about 700m.

Much warmer morning here today with gusty nwly winds ahead of a front. This one mostly slips under Victoria, but should be heavy in western Tasmania but lighter in the east.

Lighthouse, your basic rainfall problem is the dependence on westerly weather. The more Mediterranean your climate (cool season rainfall peak) the more climate change is biting into the rainfall in southern mainland Australia. The biggest declines and hence multi year rainfall deficits are affecting spots like the Yarra Ranges, Perth, Otways. Other areas like northern Victoria and the ranges are making up for some of the rainfall decline in summer. Take a look at the rainfalls at http://www.bom.gov.au/state-of-the-clim ... mate.shtml


When we moved it was largely because the Dandenongs were getting too dangerous. Summers had become months of watching the forecast dreading the next hot windy change. Black Summer was hell. We deliberately moved to a coastal peninsula with low bushfire risk in southeast Tasmania where rainfall is stable or perhaps even going up a touch with increasing easterly rainfall. Our insurance costs nearly halved. Summers are fantastic here. Weeks of 20s, with multiple beaches with 30 minutes. Most summers water temperatures are peaking in the 20s “thanks” to the rapidly warming east Australian current (total warming is now near 4C).

[Lighthouse]

Yes, you don’t have to be Einstein to realise what’s happening to our climate and what’s coming as a consequence. We are trying to sell our house, only hope we haven’t left it too late. It’s too risky to stay. While everyone knows about climate change, I don’t think most people have any idea of what it’s going to do to asset prices and living standards.