Will We Finally Get Some Rain This Weekend March 15/16 ?

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Sun Mar 16, 2025 5:22 pm

Rain all day here. Fantastic drop of 31mm so far.

Expecting to add to that tonight as the showers in the south west flow kick in, which typically favours us well. Much more like the weather we know here

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Sun Mar 16, 2025 5:55 pm

Nice rain today, more than I was expecting. We've had 8mm since yesterday and 20mm for the week since last Sunday.
This time yesterday it was 29° here at Mt Macedon, today it's 9°!

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Mar 16, 2025 6:31 pm

Real mixed bag today across the southeast. Record heat in NSW after yesterday’s numerous records in SA, light falls in northern Victoria and South Australia, but good to bumper falls through eastern Victoria and western Tasmania. Even some heavy snow showers on the mountains down here in Tasmania this afternoon.

Had 9mm at our place south of Hobart, which is our best fall for about a month. Drove through Liawenee this afternoon and was snowing lightly. Always nice to see

Slowly clearing now but some heavy showers still to come in the usual spots.

Australis(Shell3155) · Sun Mar 16, 2025 7:31 pm

36.91mm FTG

Credits to those whom took these pics.

Lucia · Post by **Lucia** » Sun Mar 16, 2025 8:24 pm

Had a very worrying night, last night, with the fires, so grateful today for 35mls and wonderful 200 firies that turned up to help, they are heroes......

Lily · Post by **Lily** » Sun Mar 16, 2025 10:45 pm

Evening all

An incredible "drop" here since 12am - just hit 51.5mm. I had to double check Wunderground stations close to me to make sure it was right, but sure enough a not too far distant neighbour is measuring similar numbers, yet strangely less than a kilometre in the other direction stations are showing 35-40mm. Looks like we're in the sweet spot.

While the change in weather and rain has been fantastic, I just wish it had all been a bit further west. Having taken a trip through Western Vic into south SA a couple of weeks ago, it's dry, so, so, so dry - I really feel for anyone out that way.

Lighthouse · Post by **Lighthouse** » Mon Mar 17, 2025 7:57 am

Has there ever been a more stark example of the continued east/west rainfall divide than today’s BOM 24 rainfall and river map?All the rain concentrated in the East, just1.6mm for Airey’ s Inlet. Maybe for the first time since European settlement we reach the Autumn solstice with the bushfire threat still very much in play.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Mar 17, 2025 10:18 am

Lighthouse wrote: Mon Mar 17, 2025 7:57 am Has there ever been a more stark example of the continued east/west rainfall divide than today’s BOM 24 rainfall and river map?All the rain concentrated in the East, just1.6mm for Airey’ s Inlet. Maybe for the first time since European settlement we reach the Autumn solstice with the bushfire threat still very much in play.

There were bad bushfires in Vic in Late-March/Early April 2005 at Wilson's Prom. Not unprecedented. https://www.ffm.vic.gov.au/__data/asset ... m__map.pdf

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Mon Mar 17, 2025 10:42 pm

If Thursday's rain comes off, it will be great - but also a forecasting failure. Models had no sign of it just a few days ago.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 5:53 am

Cool one here yesterday with 16C after just 16C on Sunday. Summer to winter, with no autumn in between

Unfortunately not quite the autumn break here. We’ve had 15mm in the past week and grass has a green tinge, but not very deep. Some better falls locally, up to about 30mm, but also some spots have had less than 5mm.

Sneaky system for Thursday. Trough catches some tropical moisture and comes in mid afternoon. Storms for Victoria, east of about Ballarat. For Tasmania, a strong front onto the east coast with a band of heavy rain, but getting shreaded as it heads east. Good to be seeing a follow up system of sorts moving in soon after the last one.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 10:18 am

Still a crazy amount of divergence in the forecast models. 1 to 30mm possible.

The incoming MJO pulse is forecast to be very weak over the tropics. Very ho-hum.

Ryant1234 · Post by **Ryant1234** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 3:30 pm

Hobart is the warmest eastern state capital at the moment

tied with Brisbane

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 3:38 pm

Hmmm, a couple of the 00Z model outputs have got me interested about storms and rain later this week. IC reckons 40mm, ARP has 25mm.

GFS a measly 10mm this week, but off-the-chain with 60mm next week

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 4:46 pm

StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Mar 18, 2025 3:38 pm Hmmm, a couple of the 00Z model outputs have got me interested about storms and rain later this week. IC reckons 40mm, ARP has 25mm.

GFS a measly 10mm this week, but off-the-chain with 60mm next week

Just started a new thread for this one - think it has qualified

.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Tue Mar 18, 2025 4:53 pm

26mm here for the event and a ripper day today

Welecome rain for Melb to mallcoota but agree wish it fell further west and in Sa and W NW Vic

about 130mm here YTD so doing fine thnaks to all the storms