Will We Finally Get Some Rain This Weekend March 15/16 ?

[Didjman]

A cold front with a prefrontal trough crosses Vic/Tas Saturday into Sunday. Strengthening northerlies Saturday with a spike in temps give way to a strong gusty change Sunday with the prospect of the best rain in months. Showers and storms are forecast with the change with uncertainty around the timing of the change.

[hillybilly]

Well named thread. Western Tasmania will get rain, probably locally over 100mm. East central VIC will do ok. Guess the rest of us watch the progs nervously.

First a warm Friday, then a hot windy Saturday, lots of cloud Sunday with heavy rain for western and northern Tasmania, but patchy for Victoria and eastern Tasmania. Looks like 2-10mm give or take for most of those areas, then a strong front late. That has a really deep cold pool with snow headed for the peaks in Victoria and dropping fairly low in Tasmania. Then a pretty quick clearance.

Looks like a pretty wild day for the Grand Prix with gales, sideways rain, maybe a storm, best front in a couple of months timed pretty badly for the days events

Btw some remarkable weather over in WA. Spot falls approach 100mm in the southwest. Good season break where it fell, but also spots on nearly zero given the convective/tropical nature of the system.

[stevco123]

Waking up to a surprisingly thick fog this morning here

[Lighthouse]

Talk about raining on the parade HB, here I was thinking the Surf Coast might finally get some rain on Sunday and then you utter the horrible words of the past two years, East central Vic will do ok. That means we miss out.

[QldTwister]

Strong front this weekend, summer on sat arvo, winter sunday arvo/evening

Showers and thunderstorms tending to a band of rain in south and mount Vic many should see 5-10mm at least
sadly little to nothing north of the ranges, SA might do ok in south they need more than anyone

Melb more 10-20mm less for west burbs, more 20-30mm east burbs into the hills and yarra valley and WnS Gippy usual wet spots for sure

Prefect day today very nice

Hopefully everyone gets rain this weekend we all should, but its not the 30-50mm that we all want and need.
But April coming will be wet or at least rains will return

[StratoBendigo]

Can't see more than 5mm here. At least it will be cooler on Sunday afternoon.

Looks a lot more promising the weekend after though...

[hillybilly]

Looks good for western Tasmania and eastern Victoria. Elsewhere will struggle, particularly drier parts of eastern Tasmania and northern Victoria. Good some will get a good fall and it will ease the dry.

Hoping for 10mm at least down here south of Hobart but totally comes down to how much the rain is shreaded by the ranges. That can be really hard to pick in the long lived rain events,

[Gordon]

First sheep grazier's warning for a while. Bring on the change of seasons!

[StratoBendigo]

A revolting 38.6c here today. Almost a March record (39.1c in 1965 and 39.3c in 2016). Over it.

[hillybilly]

A revolting 38.6c here today. Almost a March record (39.1c in 1965 and 39.3c in 2016). Over it.

Some horrible temps for this late in autumn. Just shy of 43C in the Mallee and nearly 44C in Adelaide’s northern burbs. 44.1C and Ceduna. Revolting weather for a week before the equinox. TAS much cooler but still well into the 20s. I’m on the north coast for the weekend and been really humid here. Temps around the low 20’s but dew points just under 20C. Been light rain, which is slowly increasing.

Hopefully for some rain overnight for most, but looks mainly western Tasmania and eastern Victoria/ranges. East central wil do very well with showers Sunday into Monday with the deep southwesterly flow.

[StratoBendigo]

It's so dry here that farmers around Kyneton are now offloading stock. It's getting very bad.

And next weekend doesn't look that wet now.

[hillybilly]

Mixed bag overnight with bumper falls for western Tasmania, ok falls on the north coast and on the hills, and not much elsewhere. Now waiting to see if the showers can bump up totals more. Just 4mm at home which is pretty disappointing given models had up to an inch earlier in the week.

Looks like a miss for South Australia, and most of northern Victoria. Central and eastern Victoria should do pretty well today, which will be welcome.

Is turning much colder and will be some snow on the alps, but airmass is quite dry so probably just dusting by the morning.

[Ryant1234]

Yesterday was sitting at an average maximum of 31.6 at the viewbank site so far this month. 25.4 is the usual.

Finally some rain. Until yesterday at the Epping melb water site, since the 21st of Feb only 0.4mm of rain across 2 days. And 10.4 mm since the 14th of February.

38.3 maximum yeaterday and 30.4 at 10:20pm when i went to bed. Still warm next week

[Gordon]

An even 10mm here so far, maybe a bit more to come. Nice not to have the rain miraculously part around us like it has for the last month and a half. 16C; wind picking up.

[Didjman]

0.1mm here so far lol. Now as of 1145 we are getting a good drop 12 mm here so far. The best fall all year!

[Lighthouse]

Just 4.8mm at Aireys Inlet, up to 7mm for the month. Settle the dust for a few hours.

[stevco123]

10mm so far. Happy with that and about 9.9mm more than I expected.

Been a while since there's been a good southwesterly flow of showers. Looks to keep going the whole day

[StratoBendigo]

3mm in Kangaroo Flat. About what I was expecting. Nice and cool now.

[QldTwister]

Lots of 10-20mm around Melb and 20-30 east of melb with thick drizzle here atm and more to come.

22mm here and still coming down with thick drizzle

Nothing in SA or W or N Vic really just in central, and gippy and eastern Vic then SW flow bring more to east melb and gippy tonight but much of state misses out.

Its chilly and wet out there but welcome rain for many

Tropics waking up in coming weeks, lots rain up north need that to link up later this month into April

[Onetahuti]

Today 28mm and counting so 53mm for the week.

My maternal grandfather who died in 1956 held the belief that if Victoria had a dry spell like we have experienced it would break by St Pats Day,