Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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Guess we may as well have a thread for Mondays system. Geez wish it was a look at all those storms but instead another hot one. Very gusty wind, with a late change. Dew points don’t drop out too badly, but still will be a dangerous fire and heat day. Temps will probably top 45C in the Mallee, low 40s Melbourne surround and about 30C Hobart. Melbourne’s gonna have its hottest summer on record if this pattern continues for much longer.
Could be the odd shower or storm near the change. Have seen these fronts fire a bit with storms so don’t be surprised to see a few cells as the system pushes through central Victoria late arvo. Similar for Hobart.
hillybilly wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2025 6:35 am
Guess we may as well have a thread for Mondays system. Geez wish it was a look at all those storms but instead another hot one. Very gusty wind, with a late change. Dew points don’t drop out too badly, but still will be a dangerous fire and heat day. Temps will probably top 45C in the Mallee, low 40s Melbourne surround and about 30C Hobart. Melbourne’s gonna have its hottest summer on record if this pattern continues for much longer.
Could be the odd shower or storm near the change. Have seen these fronts fire a bit with storms so don’t be surprised to see a few cells as the system pushes through central Victoria late arvo. Similar for Hobart.
Hottest summer on record? People will laugh at that with what seems a normal quantity of 30 degree days, and no 40 degree day yet.
I know stats don't lie, but surely the 26.5 average last month and the 27.3 this month aren't records?
There have been much hotter summers i would have thought
HB never said it was the hottest summer ever. He said 2024 was the hottest year on record and 2023 was the hottest on record before that etc. So be good if you stuck to what was posted.
Lighthouse wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2025 10:41 am
HB never said it was the hottest summer ever. He said 2024 was the hottest year on record and 2023 was the hottest on record before that etc. So be good if you stuck to what was posted.
Please see screenshot of his comment.
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Hot and windy one but only for 6 to 8 hours really on Monday the cool at night again so much Sly this summer.
hoping wishing the change delayed till 8 or 9pm so can get couple hours at beach before cold gusty cool change monday evening then another cool week following it.
Next weekend into early following looking like nice run of mid to high 30s happy times hope comes off
sadly those looking for rain non really in next 2 weeks or so
Lighthouse wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2025 10:41 am
HB never said it was the hottest summer ever. He said 2024 was the hottest year on record and 2023 was the hottest on record before that etc. So be good if you stuck to what was posted.
The basic data is freely available.
Currently this is what they show when you add the forecast…
December OP max 15.3C max 26.5C
January OP: min ~17C max ~28C
They are more than 2C above average. If February follows summer to date it will be touch and go for a new hottest summer on record.
Here’s the quote btw. No I didn’t say it would be the hottest. “Melbourne’s gonna have its hottest summer on record if this pattern continues for much longer.” But if this pattern sticks it will be the hottest.
Why are you doing this? Climate science won’t be changed by you taking a quote and trying to pick a fault. Global warming won’t stop because you post a snowy photos from the US.
Monday looks a touch cooler. Thinking 39-41C across metro Melbourne and 31-33C across Hobart. Unpleasant spike day.
Not much rain in the offering. Monsoon is still to start (that’s a new record) so not really seeing good links to the tropics. There is little relationship between ENSO and the monsoon start date for neutral to weak La Niña, but setting a late record is odd given decades of data. Strange summer indeed.
It’s certainly felt like a long hot summer to me HB, those temp stats and trajectory make sense. It’s been the average temps and overnight temps that I’ve noticed most this year. Long runs of mid-high 20s days and no real cold outbreaks. We’ve had heaps of nights where it’s felt hot for sleeping.
I found those headlines from the US alarming, particularly in contrast with the LA fires. Weather systems seem to be so slow moving and supercharged. Information is so much more accessible with the internet these days, but the weather on balance feels very different to what I remembered it to be like as a kid.
ACCESS model suggesting a prolonged period of heat from Feb 1st to Feb 4th and possibly beyond. Late monsoon has a lot of heat on the continent ready to be dragged down.
Yeah all models going for an impressive long duration heatwave of the likes we havent seen in years like the heatwaves of 08 09 14 i think and 19 number of days in the mid to high 30s here low 40s inland with 2 or 3 tropcal lows and cyclones also developing in tropical north
All happening first week of Feb
Hot windy day tomorrow but all over this time tomorrow
Tassiedave wrote: Sun Jan 26, 2025 9:52 am
ACCESS model suggesting a prolonged period of heat from Feb 1st to Feb 4th and possibly beyond. Late monsoon has a lot of heat on the continent ready to be dragged down.
Been watching that. Looks like we will score sea breezes and mostly easterlies in Tasmania so won’t be too bad, but inland southeast Oz could see some nasty conditions. EC has been playing with 3-5 hot days in Melbourne, but suspect sea breezes will cap it a bit. We’ve been so lucky to avoid a Tasman sea block so far with so much heat inland.
This record late monsoon is baffling. Weak La Niña in place and MJO isn’t really an obvious factor. Only thing that’s seems up in the SAM which has been frequently negative. This is the first summer with lots of negative SAM since 2016/2017, so probably we’ve all forgot what a negative SAM summer is like .
Lighthouse wrote: Sat Jan 25, 2025 10:41 am
HB never said it was the hottest summer ever. He said 2024 was the hottest year on record and 2023 was the hottest on record before that etc. So be good if you stuck to what was posted.
The basic data is freely available.
Currently this is what they show when you add the forecast…
December OP max 15.3C max 26.5C
January OP: min ~17C max ~28C
They are more than 2C above average. If February follows summer to date it will be touch and go for a new hottest summer on record.
Here’s the quote btw. No I didn’t say it would be the hottest. “Melbourne’s gonna have its hottest summer on record if this pattern continues for much longer.” But if this pattern sticks it will be the hottest.
Why are you doing this? Climate science won’t be changed by you taking a quote and trying to pick a fault. Global warming won’t stop because you post a snowy photos from the US.
For the same reason MOST people think- Because global warming is not happening for the reasons we are told, and not as bad as we are told. All natural.
I'm genuinely on the fence regarding man made global warming. I must put the disclaimer in there. I'm yet to be convinced.
I'm frustrated that when a heat event happens anywhere in the world, it is plastered all over the news, yet when an amazing cold weather event happens, it barely gets a mention.
I'm also frustrated by what seems like agenda pushing. EVERYTHING is blamed on global warming. Rainy? Cold? Hot? Dry? Snowy? Yep. Must be global warming.
I'm not a conspiracy theorist under any circumstance, but there are too many flaws in what we are being told. Plus so many predictions that have not come true. In fact, most have not come true.
I love your forecasting and your knowledge of how weather works, but don't agree with your stance on global warming- nor do i need to.
We can still get along however
Geez not liking the look of a ~week out. EC has 39, 44, 46, 45, 45, 45, 47, 37C for Mildura’s max starting Saturday. Never seen anything like that. Just a forecast so hopefully it’s nothing near that .
Steve, global warming isn’t natural nor is it less than you are told. It’s tracking exactly as Exxon (yep the oil company) scientists predicted 50 years ago. Every data set agrees, including the sceptics prefers satellite data which is now warming exceptionally fast. Global warming sits in our models, in our forecasts and in our observations. Snow in New Orleans is entirely consistent with global warming because the models had it a week out. Rejecting the science means rejecting every tool and every dataset that we use for meteorology.
Heat kills more than 500,000 people across the world every year and the number of elderly people dying each year from heat related illnesses or weather events is, according to WHO, growing exponentially. I too get frustrated at the media’s reporting of global warming, they generally play it down or ignore it. A heatwave; don’t show people dying in hospital, show a couple of teenage babes on a beach in bikinis instead. As HB says, the evidence is irrefutable. Only the extent of the damage remains slightly debatable. Not that anyone really cares, least of all the media.
StratoBendigo wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 3:13 pm
We've hit 40c. First time for a few years. Windy outside too.
Looks like some problems over in the Little Desert National Park this afternoon.
[/quote We are nudging 38.3 at the moment, hopefully it won't go higher and yes windy here too, really hoping no fires take hold further.
StratoBendigo wrote: Mon Jan 27, 2025 3:13 pm
We've hit 40c. First time for a few years. Windy outside too.
Looks like some problems over in the Little Desert National Park this afternoon.
[/quote We are nudging 38.3 at the moment, hopefully it won't go higher and yes windy here too, really hoping no fires take hold further.