Becoming hot and very windy with bad fire weather: December 25-27

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Dec 21, 2024 5:41 am

Nasty sequence coming up from Christmas Day with hot conditions building ahead of a very windy second half to Boxing Day into Friday. The very hottest air moves in late on Thursday and with strong winds which will see temps in the low to mid 30s for much of the night. Winds could well locally top 100km/hr so very nasty fire weather conditions. Definitely a time to try to find a cool spot and keep up to date with the warnings.

The Melbourne record mid night temperature could well be a risk (34C at the current site) as could the December record high, depending on the timing of the front on Friday. Over the open oceans progs are putting winds over 150km/hr west of Tasmania with an exceptionally deep low which passed near Hobart late on Friday. Some showers behind the front but not a lot at this stage.

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Mon Dec 23, 2024 10:14 am

Sounds awful.
Given the forecast the fire that has been burning just out of Bullengarook is now a real concern for us at Macedon and Mt Macedon once the change comes through early on Friday morning.
A very similar set-up to what occurred on Ash Wednesday.
Any idea of what the wind speed will like with the change and how long into Friday before the wind moderates?

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Mon Dec 23, 2024 12:22 pm

Fingers crossed for you Macedonian, hopefully they can get some more containment work done during this brief cool/ damp period.

Boxing Day looks like it will be an anxious one for those of us living in rural areas, particularly in the western half of Victoria. Traditionally, we spend Boxing Day with family at Anglesea, but they've moved, so will be close to home instead. Probably a good thing.

Didjman · Post by **Didjman** » Mon Dec 23, 2024 5:08 pm

Whats the possibility of the fire getting into the Wombat Forest under the 50k northerly?

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Mon Dec 23, 2024 5:21 pm

The forecast Fire Danger Ratings for this Thursday are getting up there. FDR of 83 for Southwest Vic is knocking on the door of 100 (Catastrophic). http://www.bom.gov.au/vic/forecasts/fir ... ings.shtml

North Central and Central Vic is in the 70s. Take care all.

I'm glad the weather will be quite mild after Thursday.

QldTwister · Post by **QldTwister** » Mon Dec 23, 2024 7:29 pm

Yeah just a spike 12 hours of heat and strong winds or so then mild to warm quite and stable right through new years and beyond.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 6:56 am

Progs have fortunately wound back a bit so high 30s southern Victoria, and peaking just a bit over 40s in the north. But, airmass is very dry and winds will approach 100km/hr near the mid to late arvo front. Main concern is out west where things are so dry, and weather will be worse. Hoping firies who are doing such an important job and giving up their Christmas manage to hold the fires.

Bit of rain for Tasmania following the front but, not seeing much for Victoria. The MJO is now to our east and monsoon has disappeared so moisture infeeds are on hold for a while despite the relative La Niña. Post front air will be quite chilly, so could well see the odd flurry on the mountains.

stevco123 · Post by **stevco123** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 9:09 am

Probably not looking as bad as forecast for Thursday to be honest. Still bad, but not THAT bad. Melbourne Probably 35-37 degrees as the cloud moves in sooner.
Only thing I'm concerned about the fire near Mount macedon, on the change. That area is now quite populated

Lucia · Post by **Lucia** » Tue Dec 24, 2024 12:03 pm

We are grateful for the 22mls and still drizzling we got from this cold front, certainly dampened the dust and reduced the fire risk.

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Dec 25, 2024 8:57 am

Happy Christmas all. Nice day for most today. Be a good day for sitting outside, at the pool or the beach. Hopefully the firies catch a bit of a break.

Tomorrow looks very unpleasant but has pulled back from the shocking conditions in the progs a couple of days back which were rivalling some of the worst conditions I’ve seen on a model. Fortunately the low is forming a bit further south which flattens the warm air advection. Melbourne will still be high 30s and likely to see low 40s in the Mallee. Still very serious, with relative humidities dropping to about 5% and winds gusting near the front.

Just the odd shower post front, with better rain on Tasmania’s west coast.

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Wed Dec 25, 2024 12:56 pm

Happy Christmas to you HB. Thanks for your forecasts at this time. Good to hear that it's backed off a fraction!

ollie · Post by **ollie** » Wed Dec 25, 2024 4:46 pm

Yes thank you HB and the other members for there forecasting this is my first point of call for my weather forecast

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Dec 25, 2024 9:01 pm

Bit hotter than I expected on the mainland today. Was thinking low 30s in the south but quite a few spots nudging the mid 30s. Tomorrow is a typical summer spike day. Gusty wind the late change. Fortunately the really hot air is staying north on the channel country where it will nudge the mid to high 40s.

Just the odd shower after the front, then a few milder days.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Thu Dec 26, 2024 7:02 am

Mt William AWS went offline at 1:30am last night. Either lost power or got run over by fire. 70-80 kmh gusts when it died.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Dec 26, 2024 9:30 am

StratoBendigo wrote: Thu Dec 26, 2024 7:02 am Mt William AWS went offline at 1:30am last night. Either lost power or got run over by fire. 70-80 kmh gusts when it died.

Looks like it burnt out. Temps started to spike in the couple of minutes before.

So sad. That area is unique and has some rare snow gums. It joins Mt Cole a year back in having fires burn through remnant snow gum patches

Stinker today. Much nicer in Tasmania.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Thu Dec 26, 2024 11:02 am

hillybilly wrote: Thu Dec 26, 2024 9:30 am
StratoBendigo wrote: Thu Dec 26, 2024 7:02 am Mt William AWS went offline at 1:30am last night. Either lost power or got run over by fire. 70-80 kmh gusts when it died.
Looks like it burnt out. Temps started to spike in the couple of minutes before.

So sad. That area is unique and has some rare snow gums. It joins Mt Cole a year back in having fires burn through remnant snow gum patches

Yes it's gone. Bugger

'Bureau of Meteorology senior forecaster Michael Efron told ABC Melbourne radio that one of the BoM's station appears to have been destroyed by the Grampians fire.

“Our weather station looks like it’s been impacted by fire in the Grampians at Mt William,” he said.

“Looks like it went offline around 1.30am this morning and just prior to that we saw a spike in temperature.”

Meanwhile, conditions much better than I expected here so far (11am); full cloud, 25C, and not a lot of wind. Expect things will get worse, but every hour without extreme conditions when it's so freakin' dry, is a bonus I guess.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Dec 26, 2024 9:59 pm

Crap day for much of Victoria. Thankfully cloud cover kept temps down a touch, and looks like there were no new major starts, but the Grampians fire is an absolute monster now. Near 80,000 hectares. This is now the fourth big December fire event Victoria has seen since the start of the century. First 2006, then 2015 and 2019 and now 2024. The 2015 Otways fire was the first December fire event in Victoria’s history to see major property loss. We’ve always had bad days and fires, but they were always mid to late summer thing

The fire season has expanded so much.

Down here was much milder and humid. Very late the northerly came in and has now brought a heap of smoke from Victoria

Fortunately a milder few days ahead and a little bit of rain

Post by **hillybilly** » Fri Dec 27, 2024 7:49 am

Wild winds down here this morning as the deep low drifts southeast. We got lucky with a band of heavy showers just on sunrise with a quick 5mm. Sky is now brilliantly blue.

Dribbles for VIC. Looks like the heaviest down in the towards with a few spots topping 5mm.

Today is mild , windy and just the odd shower. This nothing weather looks like running for the next week.

WeatherViewer · Post by **WeatherViewer** » Fri Dec 27, 2024 5:06 pm

Not feeling overly confident tomorrow, my little boys birthday party outdoors in Glen Huntly around 2PM. I assume we'll get hit by rain? Hoping the run holds off until after 4 PM

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Dec 28, 2024 6:20 am

WeatherViewer wrote: Fri Dec 27, 2024 5:06 pm Not feeling overly confident tomorrow, my little boys birthday party outdoors in Glen Huntly around 2PM. I assume we'll get hit by rain? Hoping the run holds off until after 4 PM

Does look like a mid afternoon showery change. With a record warm bay wouldn’t be surprised if this one over performed for east central. Good for gardens, not for parties.

Overall a cool showery one for both TAS and Victoria today, though dry or nearly so in northern VIC. Should get a bit of rain on the fires. Unfortunately lightning started a number of new blazes so cool with showers is really needed atm.

Not sure on the next thread. Weather overall looks a bit dull atm with nothing substantial.