Warm to hot, then rain and storms: Nov 21-29

[Macedonian]

15mm so far at Mt Macedon. Still verdantly green here on my mountain, not so down the hill, went to melbs yesterday and was shocked by the brown from Macedon to the city.
Just like the bad old days early this century. Ugly and dry as far as the eye can see.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

That ugly dry had only recently turned.
10mm makes gardening chores so much easier, pulling weeds and no dust mowing with better temperatures, although very steamy when working.

[Adam38]

I’m currently in Perth but my weather station is saying 20mm. Happy with that! Hopefully my garden won’t be cooked when I come back.

[stevco123]

That humidity is next level. Real Queensland type. HATE IT!

[StratoBendigo]

6mm today. BOM very pessimistic in their forecast compared to every other forecast models. I think they're onto something.

[James]

where is the storms?

[StratoBendigo]

It's a fizzer. All the rain is to our North. We'll be lucky to get 5mm for the rest of week. All over.

[Blackee]

Not a fizzer for parts of central, n central and n east. 35mm + falls so far in ne ranges and 14mm here event total and still coming down nicely. Up to 25mm here is forecast tomorrow with possible severe storm. Dew point arond 20c here currently

[hillybilly]

Great to see that rain across Victoria. Definitely needed. Ironically with a big end to the year possible, not out of the question that many parts will get average rainfall for the year, but the middle when people expect the rain was very ordinary. Guess we will see.

Not much for TAS, though we’ve got a weak trough which is starting to thicken up drizzle here now. Wouldn’t be surprised to see decent total overnight in the foothills.

Trough is now stalled and digs back west with the approaching front currently south of WA. That’s gonna mean more widespread rain and storms which will affect all of Victoria and Tasmania Tuesday to Thursday. That system then weaken and third low develops for the weekend. Really complex set up, so will wiggle, but overall looks like a big end to spring. Humidity will approach November records so expect it could be heavy at times. Also probably a concern for fruit and crops with high humidity. Weather is certainly all over the place atm.

[Gordon]

Hoping your analysis comes off for us HB. 12mm is a start but could really do with more. Fingers crossed.

[stevco123]

... and to add to the strange weather, we're having what seems like some rare sea fog moving in. Humidity almost 100% and quite breezy out there

[hillybilly]

Rainy day for much of Victoria today, though southwest will miss out again. Drizzle for eastern Tasmania. The rain band will weaken later, as the next low develops in the bight. Tomorrow will be exceptionally humid and warm. More like a day in Brisbane… storms late, particular out west. Rainy for Wednesday.

Progs really upping totals for Tasmania, with progs showing locally over 150mm for the week Definitely need a good fall, but that might be more than we need

[StratoBendigo]

So far 8mm and light rain at present.

Unfortunately the rain is persistent in the Northern cropping and fruit growing areas. Not good at this time of year.

[snowfall]

21mm here, including drizzle overnight. It was great to see some proper rain again. Felt like it had been ages.

Perhaps the negative IOD is finally starting to kick in given the boost we're now seeing in atmospheric moisture. Would be great if we could get a big finish to the year. It will take a solid drenching to bring the soil moisture back to anywhere decent.

[Blackee]

Rained most of the night and early morning here. 23mm ETD

[James]

another day of no storms....

i wonder if the state will see any of them yet?

a lot of fog and humidity then drizzle, but thats all

I think its to do with the cloud cover, not allowing any heating and convection to occur

[Sean]

another day of no storms....

i wonder if the state will see any of them yet?

a lot of fog and humidity then drizzle, but thats all

I think its to do with the cloud cover, not allowing any heating and convection to occur

Storms aren’t in the progs until late Tue into Wed. The ingredients aren’t there today.

Wouldn’t get your hopes up, though. EC is showing a few bands of storms through/around Melbourne, but as you say, cloud is an issue. Northern VIC and SE NSW tend to get the storms regardless, but Melbourne relies on some pockets of sun.

[Lighthouse]

The south west and Surf Coast keep missing out. 1mm in Aireys Inlet for the event and on track for our driest November ever and currently running more than 200mm below average for the year. Another record dry month will mean five such record dry months in the past year. It’s seriously dire.

[Lucia]

The south west and Surf Coast keep missing out. 1mm in Aireys Inlet for the event and on track for our driest November ever and currently running more than 200mm below average for the year. Another record dry month will mean five such record dry months in the past year. It’s seriously dire.

Yes and the farming community are suffering badly too.

[stevco123]

Hygrometer stuck on 100% humidity the whole day today, even in the CBD. that's gotta be some sort of record