Slow moving complex low: August 13-

[stevco123]

10mm here too. Forecast models beyond Thursday are all over the shop.

Yep, after a lifetime looking at forecasts and models, now I mostly just look in the Nylex every morning! Something is broken with short and long-term forecasting these days... well, long-term has never been great, but you'd think computer power would have helped short-term at least .
Anyway, back on topic, and we've had another 8mm.

A real disaster the whole year. Very dry followed by very wet

[Blackee]

12mm here 24hr total in two bursts which was in the forecast range

[hillybilly]

A wild 24 hours down here with a humid east to southeast rain event followed by a squally southerly with cold air, snow on the mountain and big swells. Just shy of 12mm more at our place and near 20mm for the event. Big totals on the hills with 50mm+ around the mountain. Little town of Lower Longley about 20km west of here which sits at the top of a saddle seems to have peaked with near 60mm for the last two days. All very welcome.

Quite a nasty erosion event on the beaches. This is Blackmans Bay around 5pm last night. Beaches are taking a battering with record high sea levels and a couple of big swell events in the past month. Fortunately most our beach’s have space to retreat some before houses or roads start falling into the water.

Long spell now of cool to mild westerlies with embedded fronts. Looks very wet on the west coast, and expect a lot on the Victoria alps (which will be almost all rain). Elsewhere bands of showers with the fronts which come about every day or two.

Winter heatwave stick in in EC and perhaps cranking up a notch. Generally EC nails these events well ahead of time, but guess we will see how it evolves.

[hillybilly]

First cold day for the month here with a max of just 9.6C. Made it up Kunanyi this morning and was snowing nicely but just a light cover.

Lots of fast moving fronts this week but not a lot of cold air. Will add up on the west coast down here but not a lot for most.

[StratoBendigo]

Looks like a series of clipping fronts this week. Hopefully some useful rain. Where is the cold air though? Some indications of that later next week... BOM has 20-30mm in the next 8 days over the Central Vic ranges and around here.

And FWIW, the ants are going crazy.... I take that as a sign.

[QldTwister]

Yeah lots of fronts and troughs next 7 to 10 days, lots of wind to espeically in the south it has been a windless winter so will be a shock for some.

Sadly no tropical connection with any of these fronts but each should drop a few mms very fast moving pattern next 2 weeks no blocks to be seen.

Sadly the warm windy weather will not be great for crops that are just hanging on in parts of the Mallee and Wimmera hope they get more rain than expected dont need rain locally but will prob get 20 to 30mm for the next week or so here.

Enjoying the mild weather though just hope we dont pay for it with cold weather in Nov Dec

[hillybilly]

Progs are just crazy. One of the most active sequence I can recall. Reckon a new thread. Close out this one here with a frost with -0.2C. Glad it didn’t get colder as the trees have all budded really early down here because of the record warm start to August.