Slow moving complex low: August 13-

[hillybilly]

Messy sequence coming up with a fronts initially sliding south ahead of a cutoff which then moves through Bass Strait towards the weekend. Initially rain will mainly affect Tasmania, but will spread to Victoria later. Expecting heavy falls for western Tasmania, and potentially good falls for the rest of Tasmania and coastal and mountain parts of Victoria.

System is very mild so basically all rain in the alps (perhaps a little snow very high), and into next week no real sign of winter returning. Watch for Melbourne possibly breaking its consecutive August days above 20C (which I understand sits at 3 days).

[hillybilly]

Not feeling very wintery out there. 21C in Hobart the top number for Tasmania, while 24C at Mildura the peak in Victoria. A 28C back in South Australia at Tarcoola. Cools off here a bit next couple of days with some showers, but over the mainland warmth rolls on. Could well get a run at record highs towards the end of the sequence about this time next week. Too far out to be confident about details but certainly nothing properly cold for the next ten days.

[hillybilly]

Warm windy night with a bit of rain, but not enough to tip the gauge. Few mms out west.

Another really warm day for winter in those areas further north.

Was mistaken in the record for consecutive 20s in Melbourne. These are the records. Earliest 4-day spell is 17-20 August 1995, earliest 5-day spell 23-27 August 1935. Nothing longer than 5 in August, winter record is 7 from 2-8 June 1957. Probably get 4, and would put it at a coin toss to get a 5.

[StratoBendigo]

The funny thing about the August 1995 heatwave was that 2 weeks later we had the most epic cold outbreak in the past 30 years with snow as far North as Elmore, and Mt Dandenong caked in it

[hillybilly]

Foggy night here after a mild humid day.

Today’s a bit of a change day down here with cloud coming in and rain overnight. Still mild. Victoria largely misses the rain with this system and the front looks more like a weak trough. Temps still way above average, with lots of max and min values running within a few degrees of average. I don’t think this airmass is quite warm enough for break August records and it’s still pretty early in the month but there might be the odd one that pops up.


Friday and Saturday look quite showery, with the potential for moderate falls in eastern Tasmania with a weak wrap around later Saturday. Far too warm for snow, unfortunately until late Sunday

[snowfall]

Where has winter gone? We've had some very nice sunny days, but it's kind of crazy for the time of year, especially this early in August. We've been around the 18-20c mark all week and currently close to 15c now, heading for another warm one today. I've even had hay fever all week, something I've never had in August. It usually arrives around September/October, so something is sending out lots of pollen early. Fruit trees here are also starting to flower, which is definitely early.

Looks like most areas will get at least some rain over the next couple of days, mainly tomorrow in Vic. I think we'll struggle here, as we're still in a strong rain shadow pattern. So I wouldn't be surprised if we get nothing or less than a mm. We still haven't had any rain this month, so we're possibly heading for one of our driest Augusts unless something big happens towards the end.

[Gordon]

Liking the rainfall forecasts for the coming week, but too burnt from the recent fails to get excited. Hanging back until it actually starts to fall! FWIW here's WATL this morning:

[hillybilly]

Starting to get into record territory with this warmth and dry. With Melbourne's top temperature reaching 20°C, the city has now recorded its earliest instance of 4 consecutive 20s (previous 17-20 August 1995). It is also only the 2nd instance of a rainless fortnight in August (after 1899).

Pattern is now changing, but this stuck pattern of rain followed by multi week dry mild spells just keeps on happening.

Progs looks good down here for TAS the next 72 hours then more systems next week. Victoria a bit less promising, but will at least break the dry spell. As for temps nothing wintery for another week. Maybe a little snow up high, but tbh looks more like late September uppers than mid August.

[QldTwister]

Stunning few days so mild to warm though cloud came in both days just over city so annoying.
So mild still great not having heater on ripper week nice weather

Lots showers thunderstorms in SA lots storms repoprts of ping pong hail on Eyre pensulia impressive like Nov lol

Farmers desperate for rain in SA and Vic but sadly only looking at light falls hoping it over produces.

Def pattern change coming Wly belt returning next week with regular fronts whipping through so lots of wind and showers but no tropical conection so little inland sadly and warmth and wind will contuine to dry crops out.

winmdy with spits here tomorrow but showery and Cold Saturday will be shock to system lol

[hillybilly]

Good to see ok falls across eastern SA overnight. Mixed bag for Tasmania so far but a lot more incoming. Unfortunately for VIC the low is fading, then new low develops in the Tasman Sea.

Another mild days for most today, ahead of a cooler weekend. Rain wise looks good for Tasmania, but mixed for Victoria. Northern slopes should do ok with a bit of instability, then shift to favour near coastal areas tomorrow.

A rainy night here and quite humid.

[StratoBendigo]

1.5mm this morning to open the account. Some of the forecast models this morning have given it an upgrade.

[Gordon]

3mm to 9am here, thereby quadrupling our August total to date . (Was stuck on 1mm.)

[Skywalker]

The never ending dry & boring conditions continue here. Not a single drop.

[StratoBendigo]

And no more. A bad fizzer. Again.

[Blackee]

A heavy rain period lasting 20mins for us up here around 11 but that's it for now. Dry but not ridiculous Mansfield way ATM.

Lake Eildon just under 90% has risen slightly from the seasonal low of 88%.

[hillybilly]

Melbourne’s dry run has ended with 0.2mm in the gauge. Also put an end to that run of 20C days. Better falls to the cities north, with reports of some rumbles and small hail.

Down here in Tas, been murky and rainy for much of the day. Generally light to moderate falls, but welcome after two weeks with almost nothing.

Bit more normal winter weather, at least for a couple of days. Tomorrow looks wet for southern and eastern TAS, and some falls for southern and mountain Victoria. Temps almost back to seasonal norms.

Messy week of fronts and troughs, ahead of what could be some notable winter warmth in a week.

[hillybilly]

Lots of showers through souther TAS this morning. Bit patchy and slow moving with very strong topographic enhancement so a mixed bag on the obs. Some spots over 20mm other less than 1mm. All welcome, of course after and really dry couple of weeks.

Victoria is messy with showers along the northern side of the ranges and Gippsland but mostly fine in between. Cool, and alps are now finally more or less cold enough for flurries.

Progs look pretty mild after this with a quick succession of fronts and lows. Next weekend might then bring one of the most significant August warm events on record into southern Australia. Early days but EC has temps over 38C in SA and near 30C in northern Victoria.

[snowfall]

Struck it lucky here last night with a heavy period of rain. Didn't detect any thunder or lightning but managed 10mm.

An area of light to moderate rain is currently making its way through here and across to Melbourne. It has produced 2mm here so far. Still a long way to go to make up the August rainfall deficit. I doubt we'll even get close by the end of the month, but at least it's raining again for now!

[StratoBendigo]

10mm here too. Forecast models beyond Thursday are all over the shop.

[Gordon]

10mm here too. Forecast models beyond Thursday are all over the shop.

Yep, after a lifetime looking at forecasts and models, now I mostly just look in the Nylex every morning! Something is broken with short and long-term forecasting these days... well, long-term has never been great, but you'd think computer power would have helped short-term at least .
Anyway, back on topic, and we've had another 8mm.