Vigorous westerly stream with a series of fronts: July 19-

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Jul 30, 2024 6:47 am

-1.1C here overnight. Nice frost, though Sc moved in during the earlier hours which stopped the -3C which looked possible when I went to bed and it was already -0.5C. Could be a really cold day if the cloud hangs in. Yesterday was only 3C at 10 am, but then sun popped out and was 11C at noon, so entirely dependent on if we get a break in the clouds or not.

This pattern of cold nights will last the rest of the week.

The sudden stratospheric warming event is throwing up very negative SAM values but unfortunately for us the long wave trough in the Indian Ocean is currently dominant.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Tue Jul 30, 2024 9:09 am

Had 12mm here over the weekend and yesterday. That finishes July with 82mm. Not a bad result, especially with systems having generally favoured west and north facing areas, as is typical during a negative SAM.

We had cloud cover throughout the night, so no frost here but the cloud has mostly cleared this morning. So a sunny day ahead and possibly a very cold one tonight.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Tue Jul 30, 2024 10:34 am

Another frost this morning - 0c Min. July 2024 has been drier than average for us, only 45mm. And the first two weeks of August likewise look very light-on for rain. A bit of a worry with such a -ve AAO and IOD now marginally -ve as well. Maybe another cold burst mid-next week?

With those climate indicators we would normally be awash with rain. Let's see what late-August brings...

Post by **hillybilly** » Wed Jul 31, 2024 6:54 am

Another -1C night here. Light frost with a lot of moisture in the garden.

Next two nights look like being basically the same with no change on the high or airmass.

Climate drivers are odd. Could well see the most negative Antarctic oscillation values on record, almost La Niña in the pacific if you remove the global warming signal that exists in the 1961-90 or 1991-2020 baselines (so the relative Nino value is about -1), record global warmth and an IOD which has jumped from positive early in the year to almost negative now. I’d be worried about some big bursts of westerly winds and record warm for eastern Australia with that combination in the next month, but for the southeast it should be wet you would think

Meanwhile we just get thumping highs, occasionally replaced by cutoffs.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Wed Jul 31, 2024 1:31 pm

-2c this morning - one of the deepest frosts this month.

Total ridge-out over the next two weeks. Not good....

jimmyay · Post by **jimmyay** » Wed Jul 31, 2024 2:28 pm

Has taken all day for fog to clear and temp to reach 8 degrees in Melb.

Macedonian · Post by **Macedonian** » Wed Jul 31, 2024 9:39 pm

Very odd weather. 11.8° at 870m asl for my place today, probably the warmest July day I have recorded in more than 20 years of living here.
Meanwhile Melbourne had just 10° at sea level.
Weird.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Thu Aug 01, 2024 5:06 am

A strong temperature inversion yesterday. We got to 17c again.

July 2024 here had average mean minimum temp, but near record warm mean max. Probably one of the sunniest July's in living memory.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Aug 01, 2024 6:31 am

Another frost here, with a minimum of 1C. Guess we need a new thread. Unfortunately it’s a highs, highs, and more highs thread. Who knows then it’s going to rain properly again for the general southeast. This year is becoming a bit of a joke with huge highs for weeks punctuated by the odd low that drops a month’s worth of rain in three days. Never seen anything like it.