Another long dry spell for most: March 22-

Post by **hillybilly** » Fri Mar 22, 2024 6:29 am

Unfortunately another long long dry spell. Not strong highs but just enough to push all the rain north and south of Victoria, and limit rain for TAS to the western half.

Temperatures are pretty close to average, perhaps a little above or below. Dry soils mean we will start to see some chilly nights even though uppers are pretty unexciting.

Makes for nice autumn weather but without meaningful rain in parts of TAS for three months or more and two months for vic is starting to get horribly dry.

Post by **93ben** » Sat Mar 23, 2024 8:53 am

And it's drizzling this morning!

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Sat Mar 23, 2024 9:55 am

A bit of drizzle this morning, but nothing meaningful.

We really need some rain now. But unfortunately it's still looking dry for the period ahead. If we end up with only 3mm for March, which seems likely, that would make it the driest month I have ever experienced living here.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Sat Mar 23, 2024 7:44 pm

Yes a bit of drizzle here too, though barely a dust settler.

If I'm feeling desperate enough, it seems there's something in a few of the models towards the end of Easter. However, on recent form, it would be a big call to trust anything that far out.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sun Mar 24, 2024 8:54 pm

Zero mm here for the front. Progs had 2-10mm. Thats probably it for the month, and headed for a total of about 15mm.

Melbournes on track for a March low record, and would guess Hobart and Melbourne are both going to see a February-March record low. Perth is also running record dry though for more than six months so much worse there.

Starting to see quite a bit of tree death on the steeper north facing slopes around Hobart now. Particularly on the rocky slopes.

Maybe something in bout seven days or not. No consistency across the progs.

Post by **hillybilly** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 6:11 am

Still no rain

Been drizzle on the bigger hills around Hobart with some spots sneaking 5-10mm, but nothing on the flats. Looks like it will continue fraction day or two.

Looking at Melbourne the driest March and driest February-March records look pretty certain to fall now. That’s pretty significant in a bad way.

Still not seeing anything concrete rain wise.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Tue Mar 26, 2024 8:01 am

This morning's WATL has something for Vic (at last!), although you know it's dry when the possibility of 5-10mm several days out catches your attention!

Edit: individual models certainly are a mess though - latest EC has us down for 170mm in the next 8 days, GFS almost zero!

Pengaz · Post by **Pengaz** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 10:19 am

Yep, still holding this morning too. Looks like the potential for some form of low to develop this time next week?

We’ve actually managed a light shower here today but hardly enough to register.

Shaping up to be a great Easter long weekend for those camping. Still not seeing any true autumn break on the horizon yet.

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Wed Mar 27, 2024 11:20 am

At least GFS and EC are finally agreeing on decent rain for us (25mm plus) and a fair bit of Vic early next week, instead of one on/ one off.

Other models are mixed, reflected in a more modest WATL chart this morning. Keen to see if ACCESS gets on board, which it hasn't really at this stage.

Post by **hillybilly** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 5:34 am

The dry just rolls on. Not sure what to think of next week. Models are very jump, and can’t decide between 5 and 50mm. Going by the last three months that usually ends in zero mm

Hope to be completely wrong and that this awful drought affecting the eastern half of TAS finally starts to break.

snowfall · Post by **snowfall** » Thu Mar 28, 2024 10:56 am

Yeah it's hard to put much faith in the models next week, especially when we are still quite a few days away and they're jumping all over the place.

One thing to note, but still can't be all that confident, is that GFS is at least showing more activity this time. In the past couple of months, it has tended to forecast dry weather more often than the other models, which has generally turned out to be the case. But with so much inconsistency between models and a recurring tendency for blocking high pressure systems this year, we might still be waiting until we're much closer to the time to see if we have any chance...

The rain is really needed now. Everything is so parched and dry. We'll be finishing the month on a pitiful 3mm and I am seriously having to consider buying in tank water if nothing changes in the next few weeks, something which I have never had to do. One saving grace now is that at least it's not mid-summer with a full blown fire risk. Just hope something does emerge next week...

Gordon · Post by **Gordon** » Fri Mar 29, 2024 10:45 am

8 of the 10 models I can see give us at least 20mm plus Monday/ Tuesday, and that includes EC, GFS and ACCESS. Some are triple that.

Still a bit 'forecast shy' after the disappointments of the last two months, but if we don't get the autumn break Easter Monday/ Tuesday, it will be the biggest bust I can recall.

StratoBendigo · Post by **StratoBendigo** » Sat Mar 30, 2024 5:31 am

Really seeing some good rain totals across 90% of the forecast models now.

Post by **hillybilly** » Sat Mar 30, 2024 6:30 am

StratoBendigo wrote: ↑Sat Mar 30, 2024 5:31 am Really seeing some good rain totals across 90% of the forecast models now.

Yep. Looks very good for the middle half of VIC and northern TAS. Slow moving low with storms spreading to rain.

Not sure about the western and eastern edges of VIC and southern TAS is in and out of the rain. Perhaps a thread for that one.

We’ve had 0.4mm here in the past tens days so this thread has nailed the non event