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Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

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hillybilly
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Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by hillybilly »

A substantial system showing up in the progs with an upper trough to the west and easterlies at the surface with a deepening trough which eventually forms a low near southeast Australia. It becomes increasingly humid and showers and storms slowly spread south and west as the week goes on. For Melbourne looks like it will arrive around Thursday, and Tasmania is around a day later.

Progs are showing locally heavy falls but a bit jumpy.
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Petros
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Petros »

Looks like a similar easterly dip scenario similar to early October. Only this time it looks set to rain continuously into early summer!

[media] https://www.weatherzone.com.au/models/c ... ep=summary [\media] - trying out Bens new feature. But it will only stay relevant for 12 hours I guess :(
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Blackee »

Looking forward to the onset of some humid and stormy conditions this weekend. Melbourne is looking dry presently. East central, parts of the lower NE are still quite green after benefiting from the huge early October event. Hoping this El Niño is reaching it's peak with a return to more average conditions.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Gordon »

Good system for a bit of 'model shopping' :) - Latest ACCESS gives us 170mm by Sunday night, while UK has 7mm. All the other models somewhere in between :?
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by StratoBendigo »

The farmers around here don't want rain atm. They're busy harvesting and it would largely be of nuisance value.

I'm thinking 15-25mm might be possible on Friday-Saturday. We got nothing yesterday (after they were pretty adamant we would get 5-10mm), which makes me think the forecast models are overcooking the totals.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Gordon »

StratoBendigo wrote: Wed Nov 22, 2023 10:02 am The farmers around here don't want rain atm. They're busy harvesting and it would largely be of nuisance value.
Still benefit in rain around here for pasture and late-sown cereal crops, plus keeping the local area green and fire risk down.

Is drying off fast, so this coming system would be welcome locally!
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by snowfall »

Still a fair amount of inconsistency across models regarding rainfall totals. It could end up being a bit of a patchy system, with some areas getting a decent amount (especially with storms) and others not so much. Despite that, most areas of Vic and Tas look likely to get at least some rain over the next few days, including northern and western Vic, as a trough and low develop out to the west and then move east.

The rain is very much needed here. The somewhat decent amount we had in October is well behind us. Everything is drying quickly and the landscape is rapidly browning off. We've had 25mm for November, which is well down on what is typically our wettest month, and only a couple of mm in the last fortnight. It's dry! It's also not helped by a high evaporation rate. We could do with some nice soaking rain but will happily take anything at the moment...
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Petros »

Heaps of water vapour pluming into Vics NW atm.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by StratoBendigo »

snowfall wrote: Thu Nov 23, 2023 9:45 am Still a fair amount of inconsistency across models regarding rainfall totals. It could end up being a bit of a patchy system, with some areas getting a decent amount (especially with storms) and others not so much. Despite that, most areas of Vic and Tas look likely to get at least some rain over the next few days, including northern and western Vic, as a trough and low develop out to the west and then move east.

The rain is very much needed here. The somewhat decent amount we had in October is well behind us. Everything is drying quickly and the landscape is rapidly browning off. We've had 25mm for November, which is well down on what is typically our wettest month, and only a couple of mm in the last fortnight. It's dry! It's also not helped by a high evaporation rate. We could do with some nice soaking rain but will happily take anything at the moment...
We're on 5mm for November here. I'm thinking 10-20mm in the next few days.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Gordon »

Yep, the 'system' (if you can call it that) is on our doorstep, but the picture isn't any clearer than it was several days ago, at least to my inexpert eye!

Really want this one to come off, which doesn't make the uncertainty any easier...
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by hillybilly »

Progs sorta wriggled off this system, but now seem to have settled down. Main event for Victoria is Friday and Saturday, with rain tending to build during the afternoons and fade during the morning. Widespread 20-50mm.

Tasmania see it about 12 hours later. Definitely need something solid for eastern Tasmania with a dry November so far. Anything will be very welcome in our parts,

Shocking back in WA who are seeing the consequences of the big high a long way south plus hottest planet on record. Perth could well see a November maximum approaching 8C above average. So many heat records have fallen and is possible the region will see the largest positive temperature anomaly for any month for any location in Australian history.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Petros »

3 of 4 WZ models predict 90 - 100mm to fall over Nth central Gippsland for the 8 days Sat - Sat 25-2nd Dec.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Gordon »

Very odd system. Low pressure centre of 1013hpa at 11am today (about over the Coorong), is forecast to barely move to be just west of Nelson at 11am tomorrow at 1009hpa. Basically stationary, but intensifying.

Meanwhile, we've had full cloud and intermittent light rain for about an hour, but barely enough to trouble the scorer.

And to top things off, progs firming for another big system through next week (or is it the same one?) :? .
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just got absolutely smashed. 30mm in 20 min.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Blackee »

Fantastic fall there SB. Looks like intense incoming for Melb in the next hour :o

8mm here so far
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Pengaz »

Clocked up 12.5mm here so far. Started off light but showers have gotten progressively heavier this evening. Nice tropical straight down rain.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by stevco123 »

Seems like this El Nino is delivering more widespread rain over Australia than last years La Nina.

Has been quite weak overall- OVERALL.

No long, hot dry days on end. Usually by now you'd be expecting that, but instead it's been quite normal/wet.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by StratoBendigo »

35mm today - the vast majority of that falling in a torrential downpour and active storm around 6pm.

Some local flash-flooding which dissipated quickly.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by hillybilly »

Some remarkable totals scattered around today, perhaps most notably Naracoorte with near 120mm in 30 hours. It’s broken both its wettest November day on record and November monthly record. Melbourne looks to have picked a hole in the bank with the trough coming too late for storms to hold.

TAS is running about 12 hours being VIC, with rain starting tomorrow. Hoping for some solid falls after a pretty lean start to November.

This big block with lows looks like sticking around for the next week. Will be some huge falls. I’ve certainly seen El Niño droughts break down early - perhaps 1994 was the classic but this is stranger than most that come to mind.

Meanwhile out west Perth and WA bake under probably the most extreme month of temperatures in Australia’s history. The monthly maximum temperature positive anomaly is just over 7C and we would well see November anomalies around 8C. Horrible conditions for them.
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Re: Becoming humid with showers, storms and rain: November 22-30

Post by Gordon »

13mm here, good start.
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