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Two deep lows: October 21-28

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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hillybilly
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Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Two strong systems showing up in the forecasts for the next week. The first develops in an easterly dip on Friday developing into a strong Bass Strait then east coast low. The second then moves up from the southwest for mid week and ends with a burst of cold air.

The whole sequence is very dynamic. Initially warm to hot weather. As the low deepens heavy rain spread across Tasmania with showers for southern Victoria, with heavier falls confined to the usual Vic wet spots. Could turn to very heavy rain for southeast Tasmania depending on the details.

It then clears out, but by Tuesday or Wednesday the next low moves in. Whole sequence ends with a deep southerly with snow likely on the alps.

Further north looks nasty with hot, dry and windy weather for days. Won’t be a good week for fires over the inland. Also expect potential for state record highs to be approach or bettered 😬
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Latest EC has 200mm down here over the weekend. That’s serious. Hopefully it falls over the full 48 hours and not in a few hours. The totals are approaching the extremes seen in the April 2022 and May 2018 events. 200mm would see our annual total jump from something around decile 2 to decile 6 😳
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Progs looking really wet for TAS. Most models showing 100-200mm across much of eastern Tasmania. Also looks wetter for VIC. Big infeed wrapping into the low drawing warm moist air from the north Tasman Sea. System then ends with a cold outbreak around this time next week.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by StratoBendigo »

Looks dry for us. But not a bad thing given crops need to dry out. Interestingly it could be a bigger grain crop in Vic this year than last, due to the lack of flood damage.

Apart from the occasional warm day, it looks quite mild for the rest of October.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by snowfall »

Sure is looking wet for Tas, with an extra focus in the southeast. Will be a drenching at your place HB.

For Vic, the models have pretty much settled on focusing the rain in areas east of Melbourne (east central and south Gippsland) and along the southwest coast. Should be some fairly decent falls in those areas. Not surprising given that the set up will likely result in a dominant southwest airflow. Might get a few mm here but we’ll be largely rain shadowed for this event, so I’m not expecting much beyond a series of cloudy windy days, but thankfully it won’t be hot!

A warm one here today, with a very settled and mostly sunny max of 23.9c. It actually felt much warmer - must still be used to cool temps.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Strange weather here the last few days with cold misty mornings, sunny mornings to early arvos then chilly sea breezes which have brought in banks of fog to about 300m on the hills. Each days has got a little warmer and a little more humid.

Starts to change tomorrow with the low approaching southeast SA and warmer conditions for Victoria and warm air advection starting to build here from the northeast. Should see some showers near the far southwest of Vic tomorrow, and drizzle start down here towards evening.

Quite an impressive cold outbreak mid week. Snow to low levels here 🤗
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Steady rain here this morning. Still waiting for the easterlies to kick in which will bring the heavy falls and perhaps storms as today progresses. So far had 2mm.

Unfortunately the whole system is a bit messy on the latest runs and also tending to push the heavier rain further south. Still looks like 40-80mm here for the weekend, but down from the 100mm+ on earlier runs. A lot does depend on convergence bands around the low which are likely to form from mid arvo. Progs are showing they will have embed thunderstorms. Have seen these set ups drop rainfall rates over 50mm/hr and train, so could easily see pockets well above the average I’d they get going.

For vic, mostly windy and actually quite mild for the first parts. Pretty crazy overnight temps in parts. Some showers and the odd storm mid arvo. Given the winds the storms could be very gusty.

Cold outbreak for Wednesday looks a doozie. Snow down here on EC to near sea level and subalpine for VIC.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

8mm here today. Bit underwhelming tbh. The upslide slipped south of Tas for a while which dragged the rain away. Big band currently building to our north, so should get a heavy burst overnight. Might include some rumbles. After a dry few months for most of eastern Tas we need it.

Been a strange day with a cool southerly becoming a humid easterly with cloud dropping to near sea level. Very murky.

Not a lot for VIC. Off shower and storm left for today, then more widespread showers pushing through tomorrow. Going to be very windy near the coast.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by Skywalker »

Pathetic lazy "all eggs in one basket" forecasting by the BOM this morning. :roll:
There's obviously zero chance of getting anything out here in the western side of town.
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Absolute cracker of a storm here last night. Peak rainfall rate of 230mm/hr and strobe lightning for nearly two hours. Picked up 41mm to 9am to add to the 4mm yesterday. Paddock dams are full after that with heaps of run off. Sets us up now going into summer.

Not much in VIC with flow mostly westerly.

Quite an unstable day today over Tas so expect more showers and storms, particularly over the middle. VIC will be a bit showery near the exposed coast and windy but not Vic.’s event.

Btw apparently another earthquake in southern VIC with a 5 near Colac. Strange how many quite strong quakes are occurring atm. Seems to have really step up since the big Gippsland tremor back in the early 2010s with a 5+ or so most years now 🤔
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by Gordon »

hillybilly wrote: Sun Oct 22, 2023 10:08 am Absolute cracker of a storm here last night. Peak rainfall rate of 230mm/hr and strobe lightning for nearly two hours. Picked up 41mm to 9am to add to the 4mm yesterday.
Good to see south-eastern Tas getting a bit. Looking forward to an update after the latest wrap around comes through.

Nasty day here, very windy and cold. Only a few mm in the gauge but keeps the monthly total respectable.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Lots of storms around here yesterday but held just inland with a humid sea breeze. Finally got a weak wrap around in the evening though only a few mms. Still, finished the weekend with a very healthy 50mm. That’s 20,000 litres on the water tanks or about $250 of free water 🤗

Shower mid week to come. It’s going to be a cold fairly dry system so not big totals but will add up in the usual spots. Snow to around 400m down here, and somewhere around 800m in VIC. The system looks like it might eventually form a low near northeast NSW will will slow the incoming high and also give that region their first possible decent rainfall in months.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by snowfall »

Good to see Tas did OK.

Just cloudy and windy here over the weekend, as expected. We managed a grand total of 0.4mm yesterday from a few brief showers. The main feature was the very gusty westerlies.

A calm and settled day today. However that is all about to change, with gales developing overnight. The bureau has us under yet another severe wind warning. I have lost count of the number of these warnings this winter/spring, but they seem to be coming almost every week and sometimes more. Really looking forward to whenever the El Niño is over!
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Warm and windy for the southeast today. Odd shower and even a mid level storm possible. Not expecting much in it, but sky still looks very dramatic.

Strong but moisture starved front for tomorrow.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Mid afternoon. Yesterday 12.3…
This morning a clap of thunder,
40klm gusts.
And all sky observations out of the book..
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by StratoBendigo »

Cold. Some local frost in parts of Northern Vic this morning. Not good for crops.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by hillybilly »

Crazy crazy winds in southern TAS last night. Lots of trees down and power outages. Peak gust just shy of 160km/hr on Kunanyi which dragged the feels like temperature down to an Arctic -25C 😳

Good falls near the south and west coast but it’s a dry airmass so struggling to make it north and inland. The dry is good for snow with steep lapse rates and dumping snow quite low. Could end up with a good cover by morning (am planning a hike tomorrow to get some shots). TBH this really feels like El Niño atm. The strong cold blustery swly fronts are a real signature of El Niño events in spring (and then alternate with quick warm ups once the winds shift back to northerlies).
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by StratoBendigo »

Just had short burst of hail in the Southern suburbs of Bendigo.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by Dane »

Just had a coldie through Ballarat.
Temp on my PWS dropped from just over 10c to 4.7c with that.
At Ballarat Airporrt temp dropped to 3.8c.
Some sleety type rain with That. Noticed some ice crystals in
the rain when it hit the car windsceen - indicates that snow was falling
200 to 300 meters higher up.
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Re: Two deep lows: October 21-28

Post by Didjman »

Had a cracker of a hail shwr in Gisborne town early this arvo, ice drifts everywhere of pea size hail on cars and against fencelines. Snowfall - what did you get?
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