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Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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hillybilly
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Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Thread for a long, possibly record breaking warm to hot spell. Currently looks like it will last for ten days over inland areas, with perhaps a couple of short lived cooler spells in coastal parts. TAS goes in an out of the earth air, so while above average will see some solid changes, and ironically some significant rain in western areas. Very long range GFS suggest the warmth could well run through to the end of the month.

Lots of records potentially in play, including Victoria’s earliest 35C, Melbourne’s earliest 30C, and warmest September days etc. Progs showing peaks could well be around 37 or 38C in the Mallee, but a bit of spread so too early to be sure.

Not liking the Synoptics for the set up. Strong possibly gale force northwest flow across the whole mainland southeast. Fire indices will spike. Too early for these set ups.

Spring last year was the coolest in twenty years for VIC with the bumper La Niña, so will be a bit of a shock.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by stevco123 »

Rubbish. There won't be a 30 degree day in Melbourne this September. Maybe in the usual outer south west suburbs or Geelong. Unseasonable early (maybe record breaking) warmth but it all falls apart around the 20th of September according to some models. 😀😀😀😀😀.

Inland areas could be a different story, as is usually the case.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Looks much milder on both EC and GFS than was forecast earlier. Still dry though.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

First warm one in the sequence. 22 to 24C around metro, close to the highest in the state. Temps ended up a degree or two above the forecast which is interesting. Might be a pattern - dry soils - or just one of those random things.

Cooler down here in Tas, with just 17C at our place. Tried to rain a couple of times but nothing to report.

Slowly warming from here. System looks to be slowing down a touch so Tuesday could be generally warm. 850Ts peak at 19C on the EC over western VIC and sit above 18C over Melbourne for about two days which is far too warm for the first half of September. Under. Summer sun that would be 35 to 36C mid arvo. Not sure what a weak September sun does with record higher uppers 🤔
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Liking the looks of the rain with this event for TAS. Ironical that the northwest flow which will bring record warmth to the mainland including high (or higher than high) fire danger will stream multiple bands of rain over Tas. We very much need it, so fingers are crossed.

Progs otherwise not changing much. Main question is does the system around Tuesday stand up and draw the hottest air further south (EC scenario) or keep in more inland (GFS). The uppers are cooking. Progs have 850Ts near 20C over Sydney for multiple days which is crazy for this time of year.

Some record already fallen back in WA with Tmins of 23.2C at Meekatharra and 22.8C at Kalgoorlie in Western Australia (first a record by near 2C, the second by 1C). Today they get hit by a cracking front 😬
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

29C in Mildura and 25C at Campania the tops today. TAS number only a couple of degrees below early season records. Had 24C here today which is about 9C above average.

Tomorrow looks similar, perhaps a touch higher.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by snowfall »

22.7c here today. A nice summer-like day, and I’m sure the garden is enjoying it. But it’s way too warm for the time of year. Average max for September is around 14c.

Very windy couple of days coming up for here. Might be back to regular watering again soon…
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Both EC and GFS speeding up Tuesday’s front. Might cut the warm wave a day short.

Rain for Tas is tending to increase, and Vic might also see something middle of next week. Anything welcome as we face the triple wamy of a positive IOD, developing El Niño and record global temps.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by QldTwister »

Amazing run for awesome weather atm mid 20s sunny for days this early loving it. :D :D :D :D

Bad news for crops and farmers across inland areas, will def need good soak soon, but mid next week looking like light falls for them at this stage

Record warmth for Alps today tomorrow and eraly next week lots records also fall early next week in NSW and eastern Vic then back to normal and much cooler from Wednesday.

Loving this run and sign of lots more to come
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

16.2C at Falls and 15.3C at Mt Buller. Jeepers. The first breaks the old record by 1.7C. The second is an early season record, but short of the whole month record.

Shows the uppers are basically record warm with this system already. Being so early in the month the heat is struggling to mix down, plus a bit of cloud and sea breezes.

In Tas bit contrast between places with sea breezes which are mid to high teens and those which are a touch inland with mid 20s.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Quite a few September records today. Perisher Valley with 18C probably the most shocking.

Here’s a quick list
24.4C King Island
21.2C Cape Sorell
20.5C Liawenee
20.6C Sheffield
22.6C Tunnack
16.7C Mount Baw Baw
16.2C Falls Creek
18.0C Perisher Valley

We stayed in a humid misty marine layer down in southeast TAS with mild temps but high dew points. Max of 19C.

Tomorrow is a touch cooler for most, ahead of a surge of much warmer air heading into next week.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Crazy squall line through here this morning. Big gusts and temperature jumped to 17C at 7am. This so so not normal September weather 🫣

Gauges showing a mm or two in spots so hopefully it might give us a bit of a drink.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by snowfall »

Wild winds overnight here... again. Pretty much every week from June we've had gale force winds and a severe weather warning from the bureau. An almost relentless pattern of northerlies that has gone on for months. A change would be very welcome.

Strange to have a strong, yet bone dry cold front in September. Back to sunshine this morning, but thankfully the wind has died down. From 2am to 3.30am, the temp actually went up to 19c here before dropping again after the passage of the front. That would easily be a very warm summer night for here.

Hope you get some rain HB.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by jimmyay »

Light sea breeze has come in bayside. Rather early in the year for sea breezes but welcome

Feels rather humid though.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by QldTwister »

Wow isnt today just stunning prefect day so nice, why cant all post cold front days be this nice lol.

Though sign of things to come long hot dry 9 months ahead, hope crops can get the odd rain burst next move or 2 to carry them through but not looking good
Knowing there luck we go humid and stormy for a week during harvest just to annoy them even more :(

Stunning weekend ahead pumped, but back to normal Sept weather mid and late next week.

Lots records falling for Sept and even more will fall Mon through Wed across SE Aus and all the snow be gone by next week.
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by dazrain »

what is Melbourne’s record for 20 degree days in September? By the middle of
next week we will already be up to 11 !!
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

dazrain wrote: Fri Sep 15, 2023 4:16 pm what is Melbourne’s record for 20 degree days in September? By the middle of
next week we will already be up to 11 !!
Most I’ve spotted is 12 including in 2013. Would expect that record will go.

20.2C here today. Nice but quite breezy. Looking at my data it was 18C at 3am. That’s three degrees above our average max.

Should be a rainy day down here in southern Tas for tomorrow as a strong front streams across the state. Could get quite convective during the arvo. Warmth just rolls on for the mainland.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Quite the contrast between Tas and VIC today. We’ve got 850Ts of 0C this morning with thundery bands of rain. Haven’t heard any rumbles but waves of convective showers racing across us in a front which is running along its axis. Heavy perhaps very heavy falls for western parts. Moderate falls elsewhere. We’ve had 6mm so far, and should see another 20mm or so. After a few very dry weeks we really need it.

VIC just rolls on with warm uppers and sunshine. Progs have tweaked a bit for next week with the system for Wednesday flattening a bit so the hottest air doesn’t make it into southern Vic. Would think Melbourne will top out in the mid to high 20s. NSW will see record or near record high temps for days with 850Ts up to 20C. Those numbers would be odd for January but unheard of for the period before the equinox. Ski resorts will be basically bear by Tuesday. Shame for the folks up there.
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by jimmyay »

What a cracking day.

Scary temps for the time of year for Sydney though.

Glad I’m not doing the Marathon tomorrow there - 30 degrees forecast. 😬
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Re: Early spring warmth/heat: September 12-?

Post by hillybilly »

Just shy of 16mm for the past 24 hours here. Very happy with that. Month is still tracking pretty ordinary, but at least we are now double figures 🫣 As picked by EC was even cold enough for a bit of snow on the mountain. Some quite heavy falls in the southwest with the odd spot approaching 100mm with very good topographic enhancement. The Derwent Valley also did well with a few spots cracking 20-30mm for their best event in a year 😳

Mainland warm or heat just rolls on. Nice weather in southern VIC, but becomes record or near record warm as you head north. Parts of Sydney looking at 3-5 days in the mid 30s which is just ridiculous. Ski resorts as expected are now close to bare.

Wednesday change is looking like a cracker for Tasmania, with some showers for southern and mountain parts of VIC.
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