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Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

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hillybilly
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by hillybilly »

StratoBendigo wrote: Sat Jan 15, 2022 10:25 pm Reports of 130cm at Norfolk Island. Upgraded Tsunami warnings for both Norfolk and Lord Howe Islands.

Part of me wonders if the biggest detonation is yet to come....
BoM data. Lucky it missed the high tide on the Gold Coast :?

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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by Tassiedave »

Latest GFS gives Victoria and Tasmania virtually no rain for the next week.
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Ash cloud is spreading westward towards Vanuatu and may reach Queensland coast later this week. Lots of flights might get disrupted:
http://vaac.metservice.com/dynamic/vag/ ... 022_22.png
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by stevco123 »

Anyone else see time lapses of the eruption. It Certainly covered a fair part of the planet in that corner. Massive. From my rough estimates on Google Earth, it seems like the initial explosion of Ash is between 400 and 500km wide.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by Didjman »

How is this vid shot from a boat!! Courtesy ABC website:



https://live-production.wcms.abc-cdn.ne ... height=485

EDIT: on satpic, forward edge of ash cloud is now halfway between Noumia and Queensland
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Getting slightly back on topic, things are terribly dry here. A couple of grassfires this weekend saw the CFA busy South of Bendigo.

Not sure if next weekend will deliver. So much divergence and uncertainty in the forecast models. No idea again.
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by hillybilly »

StratoBendigo wrote: Sun Jan 16, 2022 8:21 pm Getting slightly back on topic, things are terribly dry here. A couple of grassfires this weekend saw the CFA busy South of Bendigo.

Not sure if next weekend will deliver. So much divergence and uncertainty in the forecast models. No idea again.
Been a really patchy month. Some spots out east have topped 200mm, while others are struggling to get to 5mm. Across Melbourne metro, close to 100mm in parts of the west to around 5-10mm in the northeast burbs. Then been really warm. Melbourne’s currently running 2-3C above average.

Week ahead looks pretty dry, though some rain later, probably later on the weekend.

Been similar in Tasmania. Bit more consistent, but still patchy. Across Hobart ranges from around 100mm in the inner northern burbs and Mt Wellington to less than 30mm on the tip of Bruny Island. We’ve had about 40mm here, so ok but missed a bit. 0.4mm overnight.

Btw some pretty horrid heat runs to the north. Longreach has cracked 40C every day this month and is running a few degrees above average. Sure there are many similar runs in areas which have missed recent rain.
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by Wilko »

Very dry here
3mm from last event
Mtd 9mm for January
Summer Dec/Jan 19mm :(
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Spectacular sunrise noted along Qld coast this morning.

Darwin Vaac noting a strong SO2 signature which is an early indication that there might be a decent short-term climate influence:
http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/volcanic ... sory.shtml
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by Tassiedave »

From 20 - 24 January Melbourne forecast to be 30 degrees or above
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by QldTwister »

Yeah Wed to next Monday looking amazing so EXCITED Long hot sunny days becoming humid amazing evenings and beachs will be packed everyday this week and warm at the Aus Open too great summer weather better than 18 and Sc and hopefauly heavy rain and thunderstorms to end it early next week

Looks like SA might get some weather for once lol
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Finally getting a new AC installed tomorrow after the 12 year-old split cycle carked it. It's been rough... So new one is just in time for next string of 30c+ days.

Early next week is still uncertain. I'm not expecting much, or anything in this desert.
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Jan 18, 2022 9:56 am Finally getting a new AC installed tomorrow after the 12 year-old split cycle carked it. It's been rough... So new one is just in time for next string of 30c+ days.
your 2 steps ahead, unit is in boxes in hall, first I need plaster, im tipping snotty noses might hold me up even more..
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by hillybilly »

StratoBendigo wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:01 pm Spectacular sunrise noted along Qld coast this morning.

Darwin Vaac noting a strong SO2 signature which is an early indication that there might be a decent short-term climate influence:
http://www.bom.gov.au/aviation/volcanic ... sory.shtml
Unfortunately looks like the SO2 emitted was something between 1/10th and 1/100th that from Pinatubo. Pretty unlikely there will be a detectable climate signal. It was probably the largest eruption since Pinatubo with the eruption reaching around 40km, but the cloud appears to be relatively lower in SO2 and was a lot more explosive because much of the volcano was under water. Tis a shame as a couple of cooler years would be nice.

I had not appreciated that subsea eruptions had the potential to be an order of magnitude more violent compared to similar eruptions over land, but does make sense.
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by hillybilly »

Tassiedave wrote: Mon Jan 17, 2022 5:07 pm From 20 - 24 January Melbourne forecast to be 30 degrees or above
Glad to be avoiding that 😬We’ve had a glorious January down here which looks like continuing. 16 of 18 days have been between 20 and 27C.

Rainfall is a average, but has rained briefly most days with lots of mild humid easterly flow.
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

Some signs of rain possible on Tuesday next week (25th January) to break the dry.

EC is keen (70mm), but others less so (10-25mm).

I'm a bit miffed about the lack of SO2 from Tonga... Oh well.
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Re: Troughs with showers/ storms 11 Jan - ?

Post by StratoBendigo »

The strong ESE winds today causing some dramas around Clarkefield this afternoon with a grassfire that's taken off...
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