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Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

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hillybilly
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Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by hillybilly »

Quite the summery spell coming up with warm uppers and light northerlies. Weak trough mid week and stronger change towards Friday might trigger the odd shower or storm. Progs are toying with some heavier falls, but very hit and miss.

Melbourne should see it’s first 30C for the season. Will make the high 30s in the northwest.

Btw keep an eye out for the Pilbara to approach 50C. EC has been showing 3-5 days of high 40s touching on 50C. Would break the December national record if that happens.

The offical Hilly Billy AWS is now packed so no observations from Ferny Creek. If we get permits, hope to be in Tasmania come Saturday morning.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Gordon »

hillybilly wrote: Mon Nov 29, 2021 9:16 pm The offical Hilly Billy AWS is now packed so no observations from Ferny Creek. If we get permits, hope to be in Tasmania come Saturday morning.
Best of luck with the move - exciting times!

Looking forward to those Tassie reports. I've spent at least a couple of weeks there every year since late teens and I love the place... mostly.
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

HB..
I can’t believe the new owners didn’t negotiate a deal including AWS,
Now I’ll have to get my own….
Best of Luck in Tassie..

Temp has been just perfect, was fresh inside for a fair bit in the morning to step outside into some warmth on the bones was a real change…
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Tassiedave »

Welcome to Tassie HB. I'm 250km away from you in the north so will look forward to comparing conditions.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by StratoBendigo »

Some convection appearing on the Radar in the Riverina region this afternoon. I suspect a fairly lively afternoon tomorrow with LI's now predicted to be around -4. Summer might begin with a Bang!
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by StratoBendigo »

Incidentally, Nov 2021 here has been much colder than average (Max 22.3c vs 24.8c, Min 9.6c vs 9.9c). We haven't seen a November this cold in the past 25 years.

Only 2 days above 30c, vs the usual 6.

58mm of rain vs. 45mm average. Only just above average rainfall. I was expecting a lot more but the predicted deluges in late-Nov didn't come. Good harvest weather thankfully.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Gordon »

72mm for November, so 1mm below average :). (We've not even come close to 30C this spring, which I'm happy about!)

Max temps at Ballarat an impressive 2C below November average; 0.4 below for minimums.

Models seem to be their current jumpy and inconsistent selves about the next few days :?
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Wilko »

StratoBendigo wrote: Tue Nov 30, 2021 2:31 pm Some convection appearing on the Radar in the Riverina region this afternoon. I suspect a fairly lively afternoon tomorrow with LI's now predicted to be around -4. Summer might begin with a Bang!
Yep looking good for some storm action Wed & Thursday afternoons :D
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Tassiedave »

Unusual stat, Hobart's two warmest spring days in 2021: November 30 with 26.4 degrees and September 2 with 26.0 degrees
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Sean »

EC and GFS are suggesting that storms are likely tomorrow, however steering looks poor, i.e they may not go anywhere, they'll need to form overhead for you to see one. Thur might be better in this regard.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by snowfall »

Yes, looking touch and go for showers/storms. The potential is there, especially Thursday, but it’s hit and miss, as has been the pattern for a couple of weeks now.

We’ve finished the month here on 150mm. That is mainly due to a couple of big falls in the first half of the month. It has been patchy and actually quite dry overall in the second half. But 430mm in total for spring, so a pretty good season overall. If only every spring could be wet!

I haven’t totalled the temps yet, but I’m sure we’ll be on the cooler side for this month. We’ve only had a few days above 20c. A very warm 28c max today, which felt sweltering!
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Harley34 »

Potential in clouds forming to the west. general clouds already up and it is warm. chance for storms later and lightning active. dont think they will move fast so more time on the downpours...
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by weathergasm »

Quite unstable today according to latest sounding - Lifted Index of -5.9 and Total Totals of 50. Both these numbers (particularly the LI) normally indicate a good chance of scattered storms.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by hillybilly »

weathergasm wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 11:53 am Quite unstable today according to latest sounding - Lifted Index of -5.9 and Total Totals of 50. Both these numbers (particularly the LI) normally indicate a good chance of scattered storms.
Those are quite nasty. Could be some very strong storms. Radar starting to fire up on the wind change.

Still and muggy in the Dandenongs.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by stevco123 »

Looking directly west at those storms.

Definitely severe storms. Hopefully no one is under them in the bay
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Tassiedave »

Hobart has reached 30.7 degrees.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Radar over the bay looks nasty.

Not a good day to have a sliding door fitted and glazing not for 24 hours.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by James »

certainly exploded fast over the bay, but look at that big gap to the west, will that fill in i wonder?
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by tonycynic »

Certainly was looking good as I drove back from Moe, built up very fast.
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Re: Warm to hot with some showers and storms: November 29 to December 3

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

James wrote: Wed Dec 01, 2021 1:46 pm certainly exploded fast over the bay, but look at that big gap to the west, will that fill in i wonder?

Hope not.
As U know James it usually misses us, until 2400 x 3600 open in the kitchen.
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