Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

[snowfall]

19mm here. Takes the month up to 114mm and YTD to 858mm.

[Didjman]

14mm here to start the event

[StratoBendigo]

Round 1 - 23mm

Now foggy and low cloud.

[Gordon]

14.5mm here and a gorgeous bluebird start to the day (which won't last!). You can almost see the grass growing.

[Adam38]

20mm exactly here, beautiful morning out in the garden with everything dripping wet.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

20.5 in Plastic

[Wilko]

18mm for round 1
Perfect for the veggie garden

[James]

and today it downgrades storms, who could have seen that coming?

I doubt there will be any thunder heard again through this event despite even Jane Bunn continually referring to "lines of thunderstorms" etc through the reports.

I said all through this it would downgrade the storms, its a pattern i am not sure why everyone cannot see.

As usual though i hope i am wrong and we get something interesting.

[QldTwister]

18mm here last night

Most metro Melb 15 to 25mm and most of central had that too

Hit and miss stuff today showers possible TS tending more rain in far east and maybe far NW

Wrap around still looking impressive for central and south gippy Friday/Sat with heavy falls

NSW and Qld will go BANG later today watch for huge stroms out there

[hillybilly]

Glorious sunshine out there with Cu bubbling away. It’s getting quite unstable so expecting lots of showers and storms to pop up from now. Steering is out of the north. Not expecting widespread heavy falls today as moisture is not great and the air is quite cold. Much nastier on the east coast with better moisture and lots of warnings up.

Rain band in developing warm air advection wrapping into Tasmania as the new low starts to form near Bass Strait.

[weathergasm]

Latest skew t looks pretty marginal in terms of instability for Melbourne, but doesn’t quite tell the whole story as we are expecting wrap around and lows popping up every which way in the next 12 or so hours.

Wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a few thunderstorms pop up as the afternoon and evening progresses, but it doesn’t look likely to be severe at this stage.

[QldTwister]

Showers and storms exploding across much of western Vic last 30 mins nice one north of Sea lake.

More and more pop up showers and storms in coming hours will be widespread this arvo, but yes if was 28c/18dp day be much bigger day

Fun arvo of watching the radar very hit and miss and pulsy showers and Ts today

[tonycynic]

Rainbow radar is living up to its name. Plenty of colours in there.

[stevco123]

Reports of a funnel at Stawell, although not touching the ground

[Tassiedave]

Heavy rain in Tassie North East. Since 9 am Gray 89mm, St Patrick's Head 77mm

[James]

Just not enough grunt to make anything happen here - the rain was nice last night but pretty boring otherwise, especially after all the hype, this all seems like deja vu again - didn't this all happen a week ago?

[StratoBendigo]

All very ho-hum now. Maybe just a few mm left in it with the bombing Low for Friday-Saturday now likely to happen way off in the Tasman Sea and not Bass Strait...

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Reports of a funnel at Stawell, although not touching the ground

Dad had to pull over and hide his solar panel on his roof around this area from Hail..

[weathergasm]

If you start feeling the need to come here and complain that Melbourne isn’t currently being bombarded with black-cored supercells because the BOM said there was a chance of a thunderstorm yesterday, please remember the following words of wisdom:

[James]

I'd never post at all and it'd be very quiet in here if i didn't complain...

still my prediction was correct, and i am glad again i didn't plan around the forecast or the models!

just remember the "models" showed lightning all over this area, and each day downgraded it

the tv news reported big storms to smash the area and said "Storms" were coming through the suburbs yesterday and today. (Jane Bunn)

all the different names on different forums and social media pages were getting hyped up and pointing to the models and today was the day it was to happen for this area.

as I predicted and as has been the pattern, it all didn't eventuate, infact on the day things got downgraded.

I know many areas got thunder, hail and a tornado and i am not saying that all didn't happen and it was not accurate for other areas, i am just saying that for the metro area, for some reason the models and forecasting has been consistently bad for some time, so bad its more predictable what it wont be, rather than what it will.

There was a discussion i overheard today on a nearby building site of the tradies talking about this very issue and that they were led to believe today was going to be flooding rain and storms , yet look at it. They were saying exactly the same thing, and that's why they pay no attention to the forecasting anymore.

As far as rainfall goes, we had lots last night but if we don't get much tomorrow then that's another big fail to add to list, considering what the message was - today was supposed to be totally different to how it turned out (mostly sunny)