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Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

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Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by QldTwister »

Another week of active weather for Vic with lots more rain, storms, snow, strong winds, minor to mod flooding and a return of winter weather.
Big cut off low, cuts off in the Bight late Tuesday, then slowly moves eastwards with multiple low centres developing within it, providing foucs for rain and storms.

Wednesday
Band of showers and thunderstorms will develop in western Vic ahead of the front, turning to heavy thundery rain for central and eastern Vic Wednesday evening and overnight, clearing eastern Vic Thursday morning generally 15-25mm for central and east, more like 5 to 10 west and 3 to 5 NW. Isol 30 to 50 in the NE and with any TS.

Thursday
Main low in NW Vic? with new one developing near Tas widespread showers statewide, with poss TS in central and East, showers ten to rain in NE ranges most 5 to 10mm with many in the 10 to 25mm with isol 40

Friday
Flow goes SW with main low east of us, but pulse moves into western Vic more widespread showers, heavy for eastern, NE Melb once SW flow establishes Donna and Yarra ranges wet but most of state see rain again

Saturday
SW flow and moist for most of south and mount with more widespread showers slowly easing only isol showers north of ranges
Sunday
Finally clears

Rainfall
30- 50mm again for much of central and eastern Vic
50-80mm NE ranges with isol 100mm possible
5-10 Mallee
10-20m much of western Vic
20-40mm much of Melb maybe higher in places that do well in SW streams

Next week signs of first burst of real heat but lots of unceartiny this stage
Classic IOD/ La Nina ish like weather with big lows with lots of rain bareling through and wet across much of central and eastern interior atm as well
Bring on the heat and stroms
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by snowfall »

Looks like it will be fairly widespread, so hopefully most will get a decent amount of rain.

Had 8.6mm over the weekend here plus another 1mm this morning, including a hail shower. Quite chilly too - currently 9.4c and hasn't managed to get above 10c yet.
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by StratoBendigo »

A very cold 1degC start here this morning. Colder out West and it's damaged a lot of grain crops apparently. Not good.

I'm thinking 20-40mm here this week.

BOM reckon a very LaNina summer coming up: https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-10-11/ ... /100524610
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by stevco123 »

I expected 50mm last week, only got 3mm.

So this week i won't be expecting anything thank you.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Sean »

stevco123 wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 2:09 pm I expected 50mm last week, only got 3mm.

So this week i won't be expecting anything thank you.
It’s looking a lot better this side of Port Phillip this time. EC and GFS have heavy rain through the eastern half of Melbourne passing through around 8 - 9ish Wednesday night. It’s more of a traditional west to east rainband, so we’ll be less rainshadowed. It’s subject to change of course, but the models are fairly accurate at <3 days.
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by James »

I'll not get sucked into this one, watch it change the morning/day before, and cloud cover kill anything - the pattern will repeat. (hope i am wrong though!)
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by weathergasm »

If you want reliable thunderstorms, you’re living in the wrong city. Darwin may be more up your alley.😂
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Tassiedave »

Forecast rain Thursday for Tas: Launceston 20-30mm, St Marys 35-60mm, Hobart 10-15mm, St Helens 30-45mm, Scottsdale 25-40mm
Forecast Rain Friday: Hobart 25-40mm, Orford 15-30mm, Dover 30-45mm, Bruny Island 25-40mm, Launceston 8-20mm
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Petros »

Model still look on track for your predictions Twister.

I covered my tomato's again, dont trust the possibility of the last frost tomoz morning.
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by hillybilly »

Looks very big. Should crack the ton here. Would be nervous about flooding on the flatlands. The Bass River and Yarra are both pretty full atm with wet catchments so wouldn’t take much to flood.
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by snowfall »

It sure is looking big in the latest runs. ACCESS has gone a bit berserk with 200+ mm for most of east central. But even EC is well over 100mm for a large area.

The details will no doubt change, even this close to the actual event, but the broader picture is for a wet few days, with a particular focus in east central, south Gippsland and up into the north east. As always, the position and track of the low/s will shift things here and there, but across the sequence, there should be some reasonable rain over a wide area. The low looks like it could be very intense once it establishes off eastern Tas.

Currently, looking at maybe around 25-40mm here over the four days.
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Wilko »

Petros wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:42 pm Model still look on track for your predictions Twister.

I covered my tomato's again, dont trust the possibility of the last frost tomoz morning.
Ha ha same same ...precaution as cold night coming up
Progs looking bloody awesome right across board
Even EC has 80mm
AccessG has lost the plot with over 200mm
Only 2 days out and something big is brewing
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by StratoBendigo »

Wilko wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 10:42 pm
Petros wrote: Mon Oct 11, 2021 6:42 pm Model still look on track for your predictions Twister.

I covered my tomato's again, dont trust the possibility of the last frost tomoz morning.
Ha ha same same ...precaution as cold night coming up
Progs looking bloody awesome right across board
Even EC has 80mm
AccessG has lost the plot with over 200mm
Only 2 days out and something big is brewing
BOM PME forecast is far more conservative. http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/watl/rainfall/pme.jsp

I think 30mm+ is highly likely here for the week. I would be surprised if it's less than 20mm. MJO is in the sweet spot (a decently strong Phase 5-6).
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Sean »

EC showing a moderate downgrade where Melbourne’s concerned, the heaviest rain now confined to the NE.
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by James »

lol as i said would happen
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Wilko »

Complex low pressure over the next few days
Main low will develop near Adelaide with multiple lows waxing/ waning over Victoria and Bass Strait
Looking super wet with pretty good moisture
Devil as per usual will be in the detail as to where the lows will concentrate the rain
:bringiton: :bringiton:
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by hillybilly »

Looks very good. EC stuck on about 100mm for here. Nice fall for mid spring.

Rain spreading east tomorrow. Looks like getting to Melbourne late arvo. Some storms ahead of the rainband, though not widespread. Widespread showers and storms Thursday, then strong wrap around into southern areas on Friday into Saturday. Winds get every gusty in south Gippsland on Saturday. Solid storm surge though tides are low this weekend. Still expect some local flooding around the bays, and Gippsland. Lakes Entrance looks like having its 8th tidal flooding event for the year. These events are getting very common… currently nuisance but a few decades from now these will be increasingly damaging.

Climate drivers are really starting to line up. Negative IOD and La Niña in the offering. Wondering if this summer could be one of the biggest since 2010/11? Guess we will know in a few months :?
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Petros »

Yep, hopefully some useful rain for the cropping areas. We in Gippsland are sitting on ample moisture.

...but Huey continues to deliver it seems:

Image

GFS and EC also moot 14mm+ (or more) for the Nth Central Gippy area by Friday.

Geez there's going to be a lot of grass around these parts when we return to some warm days! Possibly the best hay season in local-living memory to come I'm told.
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Sean »

Off topic, but any sign of Aurora Australis, Tassiedave? Or too cloudly?
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Re: Complex low to bring Rain, Storms Snow Oct 13th to 17th

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

Of the couple years being in this spot since Feb 19,
It’s the first I’ve noticed good moisture under the many gum trees in our front yard,
Hoping this next event will add even more to our heavily mulched.

Keeps ppl in their own doors, so an added bonus..

No wind required thanks.
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