August 10-12: blustery and mild followed by a sharp front

[hillybilly]

Mild August spell coming up with temps nudging the 20s on Tuesday followed by a strong front on Wednesday. Front moves through around the middle of Wednesday, and wind will be the biggest feature. Potential for moderate falls, particularly west and ranges. Not that cold, so again a miss for lower level snow.

Currently the least snowy winter we’ve had here in twenty years with not a single identifiable snow flake so far

[Derwent]

Same in Hobart, has been the worst winter in a very long time. Basically one snow drop the whole time. However the amount of frosts has been crazy.
See what’s happening with Greece and other place’s on fire and thinking that’s Tasmania in 2 months time. Dry as and no hope of catching up on totals.

[Sean]

It's definitely boring and lacklustre right now. Perth is having a wild ride, but our prospects have been dismal in the southeast.

Spring might see a change in our fortunes.

[hillybilly]

Mild 11C here yesterday. Today looks like getting to around 14C. Feels like spring.

Thinking 5-10mm here tomorrow, then another long mild and dry spell. Nice beach weather, but stuck in a 5km bubble

[Derwent]

Hobart to reach 17 degrees today. Have we skipped a few months?

[Derwent]

Edit Hobart now forecast to 18 c .

[Derwent]

Hobart ended the day at 19.7 c . Well finally hit the tipping point of no return sadly .

[hillybilly]

Hobart ended the day at 19.7 c . Well finally hit the tipping point of no return sadly .

The lamest winter I’ve seen in the Nongs in 21 years. No proper white frost on the lawns and no snow. Not really any sleet or graupel to speak of either. Perhaps the odd wet slush flake and a few light graupel showers, but nothing like the usual dumpers we get. Our winterist day was back in April

Really mild and windy here. Min of 10C. Front to push through this arvo with showers. Should see 5-10mm here. Back to nwly flow pretty soon so the mild spell continues.

[snowfall]

Hobart ended the day at 19.7 c . Well finally hit the tipping point of no return sadly .

The lamest winter I’ve seen in the Nongs in 21 years. No proper white frost on the lawns and no snow. Not really any sleet or graupel to speak of either. Perhaps the odd wet slush flake and a few light graupel showers, but nothing like the usual dumpers we get. Our winterist day was back in April

Really mild and windy here. Min of 10C. Front to push through this arvo with showers. Should see 5-10mm here. Back to nwly flow pretty soon so the mild spell continues.

It sure has been a mild August, and looks it will be this way for quite a while yet. We haven't really had any significant cold outbreaks this winter, with the flow being predominantly west or northwesterly. We reached 15.5c yesterday and now 15.8c today. The temp is currently fall a bit, but this is very mild for here at this time of year. No major rain events on the horizon either. Hopefully we'll see more of an effect from the negative IOD as we head into spring...

[Gordon]

Must be in a cold slot here . First time in a while I've seen double figures on the thermometer yesterday when we briefly hit 12C - a welcome sniff of warmth (well, non-cold ) after a lot of wet, grey windy weather that's probably seemed colder than it actually is. Nice to get chance to burn off some of the huge amount of windblown debris that's accumulated this winter, although the big piles will have to wait.

The wind had a few scary blasts yesterday evening, but overall not as bad as I expected, and this morning has been merely breezy.

Sun is gone again and it's 9C, first spots of rain hitting now. Not expecting a lot which is okay - a dry-ish week or so will help reduce the flood risk when the next big system arrives.

[stevco123]

All signs of a strong La Nina coming up. Wait until the wet season up north gets going in about 6 weeks

[StratoBendigo]

All signs of a strong La Nina coming up. Wait until the wet season up north gets going in about 6 weeks

Things are dry now because the MJO is over in Africa at present (phase 1). I don't really see it being in our zone until the last week of August. We'll have to sit tight until then IMO. September could go ballistic.

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Was a little shocked with the warmth around midday..
was quick open all doors and windows..
3722.

[weathergasm]

All signs of a strong La Nina coming up. Wait until the wet season up north gets going in about 6 weeks

All the model ensembles I’ve seen indicate more of a weak La Niña developing (or even just a slightly negative neutral phase) but I would be very happy to be proven wrong. A few are predicting a moderate event but they’re outliers.

If you look at the last big La Niña (2011) and compare it to the one developing now it’s chalk and cheese. That said, at least this year there’s a potential negative IOD to go along with whatever La Niña develops, so that should amplify its effects during spring and early summer.

I really hope so because the last “storm season” was absolutely dismal for Melbourne.

[Tassiedave]

Rainfall in Tas since 9 am: Pine Tree Rivulet 59mm, Fisher River 33mm, Mt Victoria 31mm, Upper Blessington 23mm, Deloraine 16mm, Launceston 14mm, Hobart 0.8mm

[hillybilly]

Mild 14C here today, though wind wasn’t so nice Rainy and foggy arvo. Just on 5mm in the gauge.

Returning now to spring like conditions. Nice weekend ahead, though shame about the lockdown, as a dash to be beach would be nice

[snowfall]

6.5mm here this afternoon. Nice and calm now, in contrast to the gales last night.

[Derwent]

Hobart very thankful for the rain yesterday and till around midnight last night.
Wild wild weather last night, winds absolutely crazy and house shaking all night.
Should be an interesting drive to work, maybe trees down but still too dark out yet to see. Nice change for sure

[hillybilly]

Cooler and quite calm 10C here today. Picked up a later shower with 0.5mm in the gauge. Tomorrow looks like a repeat.

Very mild weekend coming up. Cooler and some showers next week.

As for elsewhere, how’s Southern Europe, North Africa, Siberia, western US/Canada (and even Greenland - headed for biggest August melt event). Geez hope our summer doesn’t follow those patterns

[Petros]

Certainly was mild and blustery here Wednesday arvo. 26.5C with howling winds, frequently backing and veering between NNW and W over most of the afternoon. The change delivered a much appreciated 3mm here. But after only 14.25mm rain in July, everyone around here is looking forward to an inch of rain from huey asap.