Strong Cold Front & Low: 7th - 10th June

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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tonycynic
Cumulonimbus
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Location: Mount Evelyn (h),Donvale (w)

Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:39 am

Radar has cleared and it is looking like a dry start to the day. Hoping these winds are not as bad as predicted, got some leaking pipes near home (thanks YVW) and some wet feet for the big gums. What time are we expecting the heavy rain, afternoon or night?
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Didjman
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Location: Wallan, Vic 328m ASL
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Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:44 am

tonycynic wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 6:39 am
What time are we expecting the heavy rain, afternoon or night?
This arvo and night - plus gale force winds
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hillybilly
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Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:09 am

24mm in the gauge for the event, splitting as 10mm and 14mm. Showers will pick up today as a low rapidly deepens near Gabo Island, and then gets thrown west. That low passed east of Bendigo and eventually end up in central NSW before moving off the coast near Sydney and then returning back to near Gabo Island .48 to 72 hours from now. Never seen anything like that.

Heavy falls near and just west of the low.

Will be heavy falls through Gippsland, then east central, then north central. Looks like 60mm here from this part, and potentially over 100mm in upper parts of Yarra Valley.

The little low returns on Saturday with another round of rain.

The winds today look really nasty. EC has sustained gust over 50 knots from the south for a long while. Peaks early hours of tomorrow when elevated south facing spots are showing widespread 100km/hr gusts and spot values approaching 140km/hr. These are unusual directions for big gusts so could be lots of trees down :?
stevco123
Supercell
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Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:23 am

17mm so far for the event.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Didjman
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Wed Jun 09, 2021 7:37 am

16mm here so far
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:58 am

All over here. Blue skies and the rain is all East of us. 12mm and that's it.
Mike
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Location: Woodend 578m

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:09 am

Rain total till 815am 30.3mm, that's for the event since the early AM yesterday. We had a bonus 5 in mizzle over the weekend so pretty soggy. Hi res model still going for over 80mm here between now and Thursday evening, hmmmmmm
Gordon
Supercell
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Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl

Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:24 am

StratoBendigo wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 8:58 am
All over here. Blue skies and the rain is all East of us. 12mm and that's it.
Maybe, but these wrap arounds do weird things. Don't think Ben Nevis was down for 51mm.

Meanwhile 15mm to 9am brings us to 22mm for the event. Not looking forward to the forecast wind; we're on a hilltop at 620m and face dead south...
Wilko
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Wed Jun 09, 2021 9:27 am

Nice start with 13mm for the event
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Pengaz
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Location: Warragul

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:20 am

Tipped out 9.25mm here from yesterdays rain and overnight showers.

We’ve had some moderate to heavy rain commence here over the last half hour. The radar is very impressive, we seem to be in the “slot” for today and tomorrow. This is most unusual for my part of the world, we normally miss out in these set ups.
stevco123
Supercell
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Location: Cranbourne West 53m asl

Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am

Just WOW! Heavy rain setting in here from the most unusual direction.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
Wilko
Supercell
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Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:43 am

stevco123 wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 10:37 am
Just WOW! Heavy rain setting in here from the most unusual direction.
Yeah Stevco
Wow indeed
Usually the rain dissipates from that direction certainly unusual whether anything is possible today
stevco123
Supercell
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Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:34 am

I hope that low edges a bit more west. I'm right on the edge. Anything east if here is getting smashed,
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
snowfall
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Location: Gisborne South (349m asl)

Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:48 am

Has been pouring here this morning - 26.6mm for the event so far. We're right on the edge of the main wraparound, so the rain has eased off a bit in the last half hour. Will be interesting to watch how it evolves on the radar. I'm also not looking forward to the winds given where we are. Just a gentle breeze at the moment...
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Petros
Supercell
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Location: Maffra, Gippsland, Vic

Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:03 pm

Got our first period of rain for this event mid morning, a quick 8.5mm, but has cleared for the past hour.

Hate to be a weather model to sort this mess out!:

Image


A triple Low Level Centred complex low pressure system!

The timing for a potential flood on the Macalister River at Maffra is unfortunate for Southern Rural Water, who have removed the gate lifting superstructure from the Maffra Weir. Yesterday:

Image

….and after a bit of a scramble, today:

Image


Glenmaggie reservoir is 37% full at the moment, gives SRW a little bit of a buffer should the Macalister River flood.
Wilko
Supercell
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Location: Highett, Vic

Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:32 pm

stevco123 wrote:
Wed Jun 09, 2021 11:34 am
I hope that low edges a bit more west. I'm right on the edge. Anything east if here is getting smashed,
Same right on the edge of the heavy stuff
Also the wind has just picked up
I must admit I am a little concerned about the forecast wind :o
Skywalker
Supercell
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Location: Burnside Heights/Cowes (Home) & Sunshine West (Work)

Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:47 pm

Nothing worth writing about here, just dribs & drabs. :roll:
Caroline Springs, Melbourne's meteorological boredom zone.
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occluded
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Location: Mooroolbark 130m asl

Wed Jun 09, 2021 12:51 pm

23mm so far, steady rain for the past few hours. Wind seems to be picking up a bit now.

Cracker of a hail shower yesterday afternoon, not large hail thankfully but continuous pea-sized for three or four minutes.
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Pengaz
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Location: Warragul

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:49 pm

Constant heavy rain since last post here. The inner tube of my gauge has a crack so has already started leaking into the outer tube, but feels like we’ve easily had 20mm+.

Most PWS near me are showing 25mm-30mm which feels right. There’s already a lot of water lying around here from it.
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Location: Kangaroo Flat

Wed Jun 09, 2021 1:54 pm

Badly rain-shadowed here today. 0mm.

Btw, Nhill just copped 25mm after midday today... Nothing else in the vicinity.
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