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StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Posts: 2809 Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat
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by StratoBendigo » Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:37 am
Starting to appear on a number of forecast models is the presence of a LWT and associated cold fronts and possible deep low pressure system over South Eastern Australia.
Potentially some good falls of rain and snow in the mix, and it may last for a while well beyond June 10th...
StratoBendigo
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
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Posts: 4979 Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
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by hillybilly » Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:51 pm
EC is getting very excited. Huge low, starts cold then wraps in some milder Tasman Sea air. Still too far out to be confident about details.
Meanwhile a couple of weak troughs this week. Might see a few mms to get winter started.
Oh… And here is a photo of the first sunrise of winter. Nice day here and quite mild, though a bit blustery.
hillybilly
Tassiedave
Supercell
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Posts: 1098 Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania
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by Tassiedave » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:02 pm
Hobart May stats Average Max Temp 15.7 degrees Long Term avge 14.5 Rainfall 12.6mm Average is 47.0 mm
Launceston May stats Average Max Temp 16.1 degrees Long Term avge 15.8 Rainfall 52.0mm Average is 65.0 mm
Tassiedave
Adam38
Cumulonimbus
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Posts: 486 Joined: Tue Jul 31, 2018 1:57 pm
Location: Bacchus Marsh
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by Adam38 » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:32 pm
Ended up with 88mm here for May with the average being about 40mm.
Adam38
Gordon
Supercell
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Posts: 2888 Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl
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by Gordon » Tue Jun 01, 2021 7:48 pm
hillybilly wrote: ↑ Tue Jun 01, 2021 6:51 pm
EC is getting very excited. Huge low, starts cold then wraps in some milder Tasman Sea air. Still too far out to be confident about details.
Looking like a monster system on latest GFS and ACCESS too - might be a case of, 'be careful what we wish for'.
A bit eerie how the models are aligning a week out.
(PS: Beautiful pic.)
Gordon
Derwent
Cumulonimbus
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Posts: 119 Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:44 am
Location: Huonville Tasmania
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by Derwent » Tue Jun 01, 2021 9:52 pm
Hopefully Hobart will get some decent rain.
Talking to the green keepers at the Richmond course ( near Hobart airport) and they are still pouring plenty of water into the course to stop it going brown and hard.
Derwent
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Posts: 2809 Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat
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by StratoBendigo » Wed Jun 02, 2021 8:00 am
GFS has scaled things down but EC is very bullish for next week. A lot will depend on how the Low forms and where it tracks.
Another of those 5-80mm possibilities.
StratoBendigo
Derwent
Cumulonimbus
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Posts: 119 Joined: Tue Jul 09, 2019 10:44 am
Location: Huonville Tasmania
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by Derwent » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:45 am
On the way to another sunny warm Spring day in Hobart currently 14c and rising .
Derwent
Mike
Cumulonimbus
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Posts: 226 Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Location: Woodend 578m
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by Mike » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:49 am
LOL "bullish". I am screen shotting EC as one of the all time fun forecasts for us. Yes they are flakes.
CaptureEC.PNG (22.05 KiB) Viewed 7961 times
Mike
Gordon
Supercell
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Posts: 2888 Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 10:01 am
Location: Near Gordon, Vic. 620 m asl
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by Gordon » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:56 am
BOM certainly bullish
https://www.weatherzone.com.au/news/bom ... ter/534233 for 'cold power' element. Unusual for them to acknowledge exceptional weather this far out.
ACCESS & GFS still looking impressive too for the system as a whole, i.e. a huge low over most of SE Australia. Detail is the question.
Gordon
Sean
Supercell
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Posts: 1000 Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb
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by Sean » Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:18 pm
The charts look very enticing right now, but I refuse to get excited
Sean
Wilko
Supercell
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Posts: 1492 Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2010 12:08 pm
Location: Moorabbin & Highett, Vic
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by Wilko » Wed Jun 02, 2021 4:32 pm
Sean wrote: ↑ Wed Jun 02, 2021 12:18 pm
The charts look very enticing right now, but I refuse to get excited
‘Same same
Does look promising 50/50 at this stage
Wilko
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
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Posts: 4979 Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
Contact:
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by hillybilly » Wed Jun 02, 2021 7:45 pm
Bit of an underwhelming in between system this one. A few mms tonight in the north, mainly spits in south. Really mild for winter with mid to high teens. 13C here which is pretty warm for us in June.
Next week look very hopeful. Big system. Chilly at first but warms with a warm wrap around which usually means lots of rain through eastern parts. Snow further north, potentially reaching southern Queensland
Gone a bit under the radar how dry it’s been for parts of Vic last few months. Spots in the Wimmera and Mallee just had their driest Feb to May on record
Hope this one delivers.
hillybilly
QldTwister
Cumulonimbus
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Posts: 432 Joined: Tue May 22, 2012 7:56 pm
Location: Ashwood Vic
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by QldTwister » Wed Jun 02, 2021 10:22 pm
Def not under the radar, they are really struggling up there just everyone mostly cares about their local area
Yeah hopefully big soak for many that have missed out next week but such a big low any wobbles will make all the difference between 50mm and 5mm
Big week of model watching to come hopefully a big soak for many
Bring on the heat and stroms
QldTwister
Sean
Supercell
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Posts: 1000 Joined: Mon Feb 27, 2012 6:35 pm
Location: Patterson Lakes - SE Melb
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by Sean » Thu Jun 03, 2021 12:13 am
BOM and weatherzone getting on board now.
EC has wiggled a bit and now has Melbourne in direct line of heavy rainfall (heaping snow in alpine areas, meanwhile).
Of course, it's going to a wiggle a lot more. Still a week out.
Sean
hillybilly
Site Admin/Moderator
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Posts: 4979 Joined: Thu Nov 26, 2009 7:26 am
Location: Howden Tasmania, 25m above sea level
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by hillybilly » Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:49 am
0.6mm in the gauge. Better falls in the north as expected.
Winds go swly tomorrow with more showers in the south. Next week holding, and if anything looking better. Could be a big snow producer in the alps.
hillybilly
Tassiedave
Supercell
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Posts: 1098 Joined: Thu Nov 11, 2010 11:09 am
Location: Grindelwald Tasmania
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by Tassiedave » Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:55 am
Latest GFS looks very good for Tassie! We need it
Tassiedave
StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Posts: 2809 Joined: Fri Jan 02, 2015 2:18 pm
Location: Kangaroo Flat
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by StratoBendigo » Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:34 am
13mm overnight. Quite a surprise.
I hope the Wimmera and Mallee get something next week. They keep missing out.
StratoBendigo
stevco123
Supercell
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Posts: 2936 Joined: Sat Aug 07, 2010 7:42 pm
Location: Cranbourne 78m asl
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by stevco123 » Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:12 am
StratoBendigo wrote: ↑ Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:34 am
13mm overnight. Quite a surprise.
I hope the Wimmera and Mallee get something next week. They keep missing out.
At least they got a little yesterday i suppose
stevco123
Mike
Cumulonimbus
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Posts: 226 Joined: Sat Nov 10, 2018 2:18 pm
Location: Woodend 578m
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by Mike » Thu Jun 03, 2021 11:17 am
3.2mm here overnight.
Mike