Strong Cold Front & Low: 7th - 10th June

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.

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StratoBendigo
Supercell
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Sat Jun 12, 2021 10:26 am

Tassiedave wrote:
Fri Jun 11, 2021 9:37 pm
I'm not sure where this crazy warm air is coming from in northern Tassie but at 9.30pm in Launceston 10 days from the winter solstice it is 15 degrees! That would be considered warm for this time of night in March!
It's coming from Fiji, hence the tropical temps.

Btw, forecasts aren't looking great for the rest of June. Barely any rain on the horizon.
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Petros
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Sat Jun 12, 2021 7:01 pm

Last nights final hurrah for this low pressure system finished at 9.30am this morning. We got another 21.75mm fron that, which takes Maffra to 136mm for this thread. A significant flooding event for SE areas of Vic (Melb-Bairnsdale). Especially given a dry 3 weeks in the lead up.

Sunspots vs CO2 levels. Follow the spots I say. This is going to be a long cold winter, ...for what its worth, I reckon the snowy hydro scheme dams will fill by mid spring. If so, first time since?
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hillybilly
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:39 am

20mm in the gauge Saturday another 2.4mm this morning. MTD is a very health 140mm. Very mild up here for mid June which is a good thing with the lack of power 🥶

Still without power here. Sounds like it might come back on Tuesday. Got the generator running to keep the fridge cold, wood fire fan blowing and devices charged.

Petros, the 11 year sunspot cycle causes about a 0.2 watts/m^2 variation in radiation received at the surface. Greenhouse gases since 1870 have caused about a 3 watts/m^2 increase. Tis easy to measure both using surface based radiometers or satellite based instruments. NASA who are pretty good at physics have lots of material on this. I hope you are right about a cold winter.
Derwent
Cumulus
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:47 am

Hi everyone, been enjoying that warm humid air for the past week in the northeast coast Tasmania in magical Wynyard.
Drove home in pouring rain from around Westbury through to Hobart. Have not looked at the totals down this way yet, but thankful we have received some rain.
Take care and thoughts to those effected by the flooding.
Derwent
Cumulus
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:54 am

Okay here we go Hobart 30.6 mm for the month.
Overnight temps 2.7 degrees over month average.
Days temps 2.2 degrees over month average.
Highest data is 14.1 c daytime.
stevco123
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 12:16 pm

hillybilly wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 7:39 am
20mm in the gauge Saturday another 2.4mm this morning. MTD is a very health 140mm. Very mild up here for mid June which is a good thing with the lack of power 🥶

Still without power here. Sounds like it might come back on Tuesday. Got the generator running to keep the fridge cold, wood fire fan blowing and devices charged.

Petros, the 11 year sunspot cycle causes about a 0.2 watts/m^2 variation in radiation received at the surface. Greenhouse gases since 1870 have caused about a 3 watts/m^2 increase. Tis easy to measure both using surface based radiometers or satellite based instruments. NASA who are pretty good at physics have lots of material on this. I hope you are right about a cold winter.
Aren't NASA maps showing the earth cooling in general since 1998, including (from memory) 6 consecutive years so far to 2021, and this year currently running below the 1971-2000 baseline?
Maps that are easily accessible.
https://www.weatherlink.com/bulletin/53 ... 76dd68e8bc: for current weather updated every 2 minutes
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Pengaz
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 1:05 pm

Event total was 89mm here. Drizzle here all day yesterday in addition to Friday evenings heavy rain to provide another 29mm.

All local streams are up and farms are saturated and muddy. It’s going to be a long winter here if we don’t get a dry spell.

MTD is 93.5mm.
Tassiedave
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 2:38 pm

Another warm day in Northern Tassie for June. We have reached 17.6 in Launceston and 17.5 in Wynyard. Our record June temperature is 18.4 on June 10 2005. We have now had three consecutive 16+ days and we are running about 1.6 degrees above average for maximum temps through June so far.
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occluded
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:11 pm

First chance to post since the mayhem that unfolded Wednesday night. Have been on the go with SES for five days with the cleanup and requests are still coming in.

Needless to say absolutely crazy winds Wed night/Thu morning. After attending a few tasks in Wandin it took around 2 hours to make our way back to Lilydale with tree after tree down on Warburton Hwy, Clegg Rd, Monbulk Rd and Hereford Rd with ambulance crews needing to get through.

Early Thursday morning took 45 mins to travel home to Mooroolbark with all major roads having blocked trees and lines down.

Up Kalorama way particularly hard hit with some properties practically unrecognisable with dense trees and foliage obliterating driveways and unfortunately a large number of houses. Power lines still down on most roads and a particularly large tree on the Mt Dandenong Tourist Rd is still being removed days later :o
QldTwister
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 5:44 pm

WOW what a event and what an ECL that was just epic, and massive damage over such a large area from trees down. :o :o

For those in the dandys second massive wind event after the 120k winds with the front in August last year.

More proof why shouldn't live in or near big tress they fall on you in winter ad burn in summer dangerous place to live in this country but everywhere has its risks.

Lots of flooding too especially around Traralgon was real bad there things saturated there now.

55mm for the event but no tree damage locally.

Weak low mid week the another big low possible from the west in about a weeks time.
Bring on the heat and stroms
Gordon
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 6:56 pm

occluded wrote:
Sun Jun 13, 2021 3:11 pm
First chance to post since the mayhem that unfolded Wednesday night. Have been on the go with SES for five days with the cleanup and requests are still coming in.

Needless to say absolutely crazy winds Wed night/Thu morning. After attending a few tasks in Wandin it took around 2 hours to make our way back to Lilydale with tree after tree down on Warburton Hwy, Clegg Rd, Monbulk Rd and Hereford Rd with ambulance crews needing to get through.

Early Thursday morning took 45 mins to travel home to Mooroolbark with all major roads having blocked trees and lines down.

Up Kalorama way particularly hard hit with some properties practically unrecognisable with dense trees and foliage obliterating driveways and unfortunately a large number of houses. Power lines still down on most roads and a particularly large tree on the Mt Dandenong Tourist Rd is still being removed days later :o
Great work helping out occluded - there would be a lot of grateful Kalorama residents, including good friends of ours up there who are having a tough time.

Back home, local farmers who have lived here all their lives tell me it's the worst wind damage they've seen - no contest. Plenty of 100 y/o plus trees came down. Truly a once-in-a-lifetime event: Saw this poor old monster across the road today about 6km from here:
Image

That root ball would be 6 metres high.
snowfall
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 8:21 pm

Spent the weekend doing various repairs and clean-ups after the storm, but luckily only minor stuff. A tougher time for many, especially those who are still without power. A feature of this one is just how widespread the wind damage was.

About 70mm for the event here, although I reckon it was a bit more than what I actually recorded, but will never know. YTD is on 525mm, so a wet year so far here. The IOD has been in the negative zone for a few weeks now - will be interesting to see if it continues long enough to establish an official negative-IOD. If it does, it could be quite a wet period in late winter/spring.
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hillybilly
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Sun Jun 13, 2021 9:51 pm

Nice but cool 9C here today. To make it even better the power came on after 96 hours of rolling outages.

Took the chance to do a bush walk. Bl$$dy hell. Never seen carnage like it. Reminded me of walking around Mt Warning after TC Debbie. The damage was particularly bad near the tops of south facing ridges. North and west facing faired ok, but nothing south and east was shocking. The big one is the 14 year old. Since when did 14 year olds wear size 14 shoes and get to be 6’2”….

Image

Image
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Australis(Shell3155)
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:33 am

Had been a fair while between emptying Gauge - 95mm tipped out.

Stories photos and video coming from above my hill, and wider area - frightening..
And I was worried about not getting much sleep. :?

Couple blown over trees and branches here and there nothing too big, one still balancing on very stretched powerline,
Rest cleaned up with the lawn mower. Lots of blowing.

We misss having a view of the mountain, but defiantly grateful to be tucked in a tight little pocket at the bottom of that flattened hill.

Lots of ppl will have their life’s changed for many many years, these things just don’t go away, even with good insurance.

Rebuilding to with Bal ratings will become a big problem.

HB, sorry to see the mess at your place..
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hillybilly
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 8:23 am

Australis(Shell3155) wrote:
Mon Jun 14, 2021 3:33 am

Lots of ppl will have their life’s changed for many many years, these things just don’t go away, even with good insurance.

Rebuilding to with Bal ratings will become a big problem.

HB, sorry to see the mess at your place..
Hearing something like 50 homes badly damaged or destroyed. Bit hard to know the exact number. In Ferny Creek where most areas used to be farm land the damage is much less bad. Aware of one house destroyed, out of, perhaps 800 homes. Lots of near misses - our place and our neighbours both had big trees come down towards the house but we were missed by a metre or two and the neighbour had two trees fall over but come to rest in another gum tree.

Our cleanup isn’t a bit deal. Four particularly large trees which will need to be cutting up. Pool area a mess, but really only a few days work. Fortunately not summer so not using it anyway ;) On the plus side, one of the gum trees that fell was blocking a lot of sunshine and leaning towards the house. It snapped clean in half and blew backwards.Would have been a ~$6k arborist job, and now sorted 😳We have also got a far better view of Port Phillip Bay and Cardina reservoir.

New thread time. Another rainy system, though this ones thankfully less windy. Still on the mild side for June.
flyfisher
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 12:00 pm

My house was half destroyed last year on 28 August. It's almost finished for me to move back in - it's been hard living in temporary accommodation so far away from my home. It survived this latest round of storms, basically as there are no big gum trees left near the house, but also a south wind is an upslope wind which is less punishing than a downslope wind. (E.g. Lillydale had a downslope wind)
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Petros
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Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:49 pm

Another 1.5 in early morning drizzle here, but mid arvo sunny patches saw us get to 17.5C. Perhaps might be the warmest day for remainder of winter?
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hillybilly
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Tue Jun 15, 2021 6:44 am

Petros wrote:
Mon Jun 14, 2021 6:49 pm
Another 1.5 in early morning drizzle here, but mid arvo sunny patches saw us get to 17.5C. Perhaps might be the warmest day for remainder of winter?
Mild also in the Nongs. 11C for us and quite sunny.

Heading into a cooler spell, but then mild again next week. Not much snowy weather in the progs atm.
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