Gordon wrote: ↑Fri Apr 09, 2021 3:41 pm
To my amateur eye, seems to be serious disagreement in the models re the outcome for Vic for this event:
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2021-04-09/ ... /100057858?
Weatherzone charts have the ex-cyclone plunging harmlessly south into the the deep Southern Ocean, whereas BOM have a 987hPA low bombing off the west coast of Tasmania Tuesday evening, and an associated front on Victoria's doorstep.
Worth keeping an eye on!
Reckon it will be mostly wind that system and a really warm night Tuesday night. EC is showing 20s in the middle of the night as the warm core of the TC pass over us. It reminds me a bit of TC Vance which passed over Melbourne back in 1999. Was nasty wind, high cloud, weirdly warm temps and a bit of rain. Most the rain will be on the southern side of the low.
The whole weekends sequence is going to be early interesting out west with quite possibly the strongest TC strike that far south. Geraldton hasn’t seen a significant TC strike for decades (not sure if it ever has
) and this system is headed straight for them. EC and gfs are showing a pressure around 975hPa and accelerating forwards speed with winds gusting over 100 knots
The beaches are terrible eroded along a lot of that coast which creates a lot of vulnerable spots along the coast.
For us, our cold outbreak is on track. Becoming increasingly cold wet and windy tomorrow with local hail, thunder and graupel. Snow levels falling to a bit below 800m on Sunday morning. Later Sunday we get into classic warm air advection that might almost resemble a warm front which will push more showery weather in a southerly stream. Expecting local falls north of 50mm in the usual wet spots.