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Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

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Didjman
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Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Didjman »

All models have been suggesting for a few days now a deep low forming in the vicinity of Vic/Tas. Actual placement / movement of the low is still uncertain, but expect high winds / storms / rain at some point - depending on tracking. Big storm surge could also factor in to the equation making a good photo opportunity.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Mike »

Good one, possibility of some weather around on the Thursday 4th as this system comes into our region.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by StratoBendigo »

It looks like a system that could pack a punch. Some divergence in the location of the rainband according to the different forecast models. 5 or 90mm could be the outcome here.
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hillybilly
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like a big storm event for central and eastern areas and rain and showers for the west. Progs wiggling on detail, but expecting another system with spot falls over 100mm. Could see some flooding if that is realised.

Nice couple of warm days ahead of the system with increasing humidity.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by StratoBendigo »

It's looking more and more like an Eastern Vic system tbh. Although SW Vic should get a bit too.

The rain on Friday caused some interesting out-of-season river flows. Notably the Richardson/Avoca Rivers:
http://www.bom.gov.au/fwo/IDV67207/IDV6 ... .plt.shtml



Nothing really of note in the Loddon and Campaspe Rivers though.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas Temps today: Launceston 25.4, Cressy 24.5, Devonport 22.6, Hobart 20.5
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Mike
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Mike »

Timing differences Friday morning between the models. Will make a big difference for central parts as to which model has it right.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by snowfall »

A cool one today, only reaching 15.9c here, but felt even cooler with the cloud and a bit of wind. Not quite sure of what to make of Friday’s system. There’s lots of potential, but also a tendency to focus on the eastern half of the state and the far west. It could be a case where we end up just too far west here to benefit in a substantial way or alternatively rain shadowed on the south side of the Macedon Ranges. The models have been quite consistent in projecting very heavy falls in the northeast and in parts of the eastern half of Vic, so still a potentially significant system for many areas of the state. Where the low and associated trough and front actually sit will be crucial, with only slight variations making a big difference, so it will be interesting to see the next few model runs.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Gordon »

36 hours out, and BOM are sticking doggedly to 15-25mm for us. A couple of model runs ran away to the east, but they're sort of back again.

Not convinced about us westerners' chances of a good fall, but happy to be pleasantly surprised on Friday :).
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Sean »

EC and GFS are both suggesting that it’ll peak east of Melbourne, so us in metro areas will most likely miss out on the heaviest rain, but we do get some. Both models showing up storms too, but we all know how that’s been going lately...
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by hillybilly »

Models have settled down. Trough looks to be moving into central early arvo with clearing late arvo. Quite a classic storm scenario on EC with storms exploding over north central in the morning, and spreading south and east during the day. Looks pretty good for central parts though the east, but predictably peaking over the northeast where nearly all northerly systems do ;)

Moisture infeed is excellent with precipitable water values near 50mm during the morning on the through so anything that gets going will dump.

Tending to think 30mm on the Nongs, but could well score another 50mm Friday ;) Expecting top falls over 100mm in the northeast. Unfortunately the low drifts southeast so we don’t get the classic swly part. This is an exceptional low for February, so anticipating a fair bit of weather back through SA and a large storm surge which coincides with one of the higher tides of the year.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Didjman »

hillybilly wrote: Wed Feb 03, 2021 8:21 pm ...... and a large storm surge which coincides with one of the higher tides of the year.
As per my opening post, I might head down the coast with the cameras Saturday:D May do a local chase or maybe NE Friday.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by hillybilly »

Progs not much changed. Boundary for heavier falls looks to be about Geelong to Ballarat to Bendigo. Heaviest falls tending to be in the northeast and perhaps east central.

Showers will edge into the west today and pop up, particularly near the ranges further east.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Tassiedave »

Lots of warnings out now for Northern Tasmania. 45-80mm expected in the north and 100- 200 mm on the Western Tiers and North east Highlands. these catchments are already well primed and will flood with that amount of rain in 24 hours.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Mike »

Acc - c has only 5-10mm for us but a short jump east a lot more. Going to be a tight gradient in rainfall tomorrow on western edge of totals, hope its out with its geography
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Sean »

EC and GFS still holding firm re. the eastern focus (Gippsland). 80mm+ more than likely where it does peak.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Mike »

Rest of the models further westward with the rain than the hi res so hopefully that's good news
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by Australis(Shell3155) »

90% of 40mm to 80mm on Opticast
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by hillybilly »

Looks on track. Patchy rain into the west tonight which will slowly petter out as it move east. Behind it on the trough things become very unstable from around noon with widepread storms and heavy rainfall developing. Moves through Melbourne late arvo and builds as it moves east.

Precip water values are above 45mm and surface dewpoint close to 20C. Looks like a classic heavy rainfall set up. It will move through fairly quickly, but all guidance is showing widepread 25-100mm falls for areas east of about Geelong to Bendigo. The exact boundary may drifts east or west, and these bands usually have the odd gap and bow so will vary in detail.

Chance of the odd rumble tonight.
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Re: Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

Post by QldTwister »

Big event once again E, NE will see big falls a numer of locations easy 100mm+ likely after all the rain last week some minor and mod flooding liklely

Melb on the edge, but will get wave after wave showers rain at times, few stoms, poss severe, some will get little.

Few hours of sun in central or east Vic tomorrow and kaboom

Huge day in NSW to big storms up that way Sat and radar l be impressive tomorrow should be great to wtach

Nice to see eastern Mallee get some rain and storms they need heaps more though

Rain will start here after midight ad wet morning on the way

Fun 36 hours ahead
Bring on the heat and stroms
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