Possible Wild Weekend Feb 5-7

[James]

whats going on? just distant rumbles and short but heavy shower, yet last night the predictions were dire, multiple bands overnight and into this afternoon? were were in prime territory to be smashed?

maybe its still to come, but the forecasting of whats going to happen and what does has been terrible this season!

seems the bay and out to sea is the place to be today!

[weathergasm]

Even I concede this was a gigantic dud.

[Onetahuti]

The 1.2 mm I posted about this morning has been boosted with a passing shower this afternoon to 1.4 mm , doubtful I will see another raindrop fall this evening but can wait in hope.

[Gordon]

Gordon's El Cheapo weather service is cancelling the SWW for heavy rainfall west of a line between Yarrawonga and Cape Schank.

BOM's multi-million dollar weather service still keeping the line west of Ballarat... Assume the big bucks are buying info El Cheapo doesn't have access to .

El Cheapo chart issued at 1.49pm .

[Sean]

^ LOL

Yeah, bit of a let down. But to be fair, EC and to a lesser extent, GFS, have been progging this eastern focus for 4 days now. Central areas were always marginal.

Edit: we’re even been teased with ANOTHER similar system in the models in 8-10 days time. What’s the bet that one jumps east also?

[Dane]

Yes definatley a Fizzer here. Ballarat Airtport scored 6.6mm's I got less than 5.
Yesterday the BOM said 10 to 25mm's here.
Forecasting less than 2mm's over the next 6 days.

[James]

now that the severe warning area has moved east, it will probably storm here shortly

I think that's been the only forecast that's been predictable

its been a summer of constantly preparing for the monster storms and deluges that never came!

[93ben]

I actually doubted this system more than last weeks because this week it was isolated all over the place while last week it was all in one spot! Doubt there will be anymore storms today in Melbourne tbh.

[Sean]

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving...

[James]

So tell me, why are we supposed to take any notice of any forecasts when they are so inaccurate?

..as are the models

I predicted last night this would follow the pattern of every other system this season, and the experts (on other pages) insisted otherwise.

It truly gets to the point that I have no option but to take forecasts with a grain of salt these days, as its been countless times this season I have taken warning and put plans in place or cancelled them due to "forecasts"

I understand the weather is unpredictable, so therefore why do we keep "predicting" when going by patterns so far, its more likely than not, to follow that pattern again?

Why not just observe (like we once did)

The problem is, and what worries me is that one day very soon, if not already people will take absolutely no notice and when the big one comes there will be disaster!

[Gordon]

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving...

Speed has been the problem all day - we got some absolute dumpers earlier in the day, but they were literally gone again in minutes; no time to drop more than a mm or two as they shot past.

Edit: And yes, although I was joking about it earlier in the thread, by any measure, rain forecasting (models and BOM) has been very poor this summer, definitely slipping backwards. For my area, they're picking about one major rain event for every four forecast. To have a SWW for heavy rain issued at midday, fail for a third to half of the the warning area in matter of hours, is embarrassing.

[Sean]

So tell me, why are we supposed to take any notice of any forecasts when they are so inaccurate?

..as are the models

I predicted last night this would follow the pattern of every other system this season, and the experts (on other pages) insisted otherwise.

It truly gets to the point that I have no option but to take forecasts with a grain of salt these days, as its been countless times this season I have taken warning and put plans in place or cancelled them due to "forecasts"

I understand the weather is unpredictable, so therefore why do we keep "predicting" when going by patterns so far, its more likely than not, to follow that pattern again?

Why not just observe (like we once did)

The problem is, and what worries me is that one day very soon, if not already people will take absolutely no notice and when the big one comes there will be disaster!

But you're arguing a falsehood. The models aren't perfect, but they've been consistently forecasting an eastern focus (i.e. peak density) over NE/Gippy for 4 days. The published forecast did prog storms in and around the city and we got a band of storms. They weren't epic, but it was a band of storms nonetheless. IMO, this event is pretty much in line with the modelling.

Edit: there seems to be another band forming on the 512km, but it looks eastern focused again.. Hopefully it fills in quick enough to clip the city if it does form.

[Sean]

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving...

Speed has been the problem all day - we got some absolute dumpers earlier in the day, but they were literally gone again in minutes; no time to drop more than a mm or two as they shot past.

Edit: And yes, although I was joking about it earlier in the thread, by any measure, rain forecasting (models and BOM) has been very poor this summer, definitely slipping backwards. For my area, they're picking about one major rain event for every four forecast. To have a SWW for heavy rain issued at midday, fail for a third to half of the the warning area in matter of hours, is embarrassing.

It does feel subpar, but it's been mentioned that the data is limited due to lack of planes, which might explain why.

[StratoBendigo]

There are some cells popping up here and there around the city, so I wouldn't be surprised if another band forms on top of the metro, but damn they're fast moving...

Speed has been the problem all day - we got some absolute dumpers earlier in the day, but they were literally gone again in minutes; no time to drop more than a mm or two as they shot past.

Edit: And yes, although I was joking about it earlier in the thread, by any measure, rain forecasting (models and BOM) has been very poor this summer, definitely slipping backwards. For my area, they're picking about one major rain event for every four forecast. To have a SWW for heavy rain issued at midday, fail for a third to half of the the warning area in matter of hours, is embarrassing.

It does feel subpar, but it's been mentioned that the data is limited due to lack of planes, which might explain why.

Yes, particularly in Southern Hemisphere where flights have been practically non-existent for 10 months.

It's actually decided to warm up in past hour or so. Not sure what that rainband on the SA border will do - probably slip South very quickly.

[stevco123]

Nice downpour here with the cell that just passed. Rumbles of thunder too.

3mm added to the 1.4mm from earlier

[stevco123]

Interesting. Another 10mm dumped in a few minutes. Rain total close to 100mm/h. 14mm so far.

I suppose i can say it's not a failure locally after all.

[James]

so close but so far!

[stevco123]

20mm. Rain rate 147mm/h

[Sean]

Got clipped by the storm forming to the SE. Got some great thunderclaps from that. Funnily enough, I've had the best lightning and thunder so far this summer, but the least amount of rain. Usually, it's decent rain but poor lightning and thunder lol.

Northern Tas being smashed. EC still confident on very heavy rain across northern Tas tonight. Won't be surprised if a few 150mm falls start showing up around midnight-2am

[Australis(Shell3155)]

Impressive sky watching
Building to our south and most missing FTG
Radar is colourful