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VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Event discussion and analysis for Victoria and Tasmania, including day to day weather.
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VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Looks like a short lived warm then hot then cooler sequence for early next week. Thankfully, not a lot of wind. Temps looks toastie but not too remarkable for summer - likely mid/high 30s south, high 30s to perhaps 40+ in the north. Hotter across the border with 44C on the forecast for western Sydney ATM :o

The change late on Monday/early Tuesday looks mostly dry with barely any moisture available. Perhaps the odd high based shower/storm and a bit of coastal drizzle behind the wind change.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Sean »

We sure are dodging bullets at the moment... the country is hot everywhere except southern vic and tas. Is this SAM related?
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Didjman »

Sean wrote: Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:10 pm We sure are dodging bullets at the moment... the country is hot everywhere except southern vic and tas. Is this SAM related?
Sure is! From the Warming event over Antarctica back in August / September. The Westerlies are fanning hot air over NSW / Southern QLD - hence the fires and smoke in the Tasman.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by WeatherViewer »

Didjman wrote: Sat Dec 07, 2019 6:58 am
Sean wrote: Fri Dec 06, 2019 9:10 pm We sure are dodging bullets at the moment... the country is hot everywhere except southern vic and tas. Is this SAM related?
Sure is! From the Warming event over Antarctica back in August / September. The Westerlies are fanning hot air over NSW / Southern QLD - hence the fires and smoke in the Tasman.
Wil this SAM related pattern eventually break down? It seems to have a tight hold over us thats for sure.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Didjman »

WeatherViewer wrote: Sat Dec 07, 2019 10:09 am
Wil this SAM related pattern eventually break down? It seems to have a tight hold over us thats for sure.
Yes it will eventually over Summer. Here is a link to monitor it:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... index.html

On a positive note the +ve IOD is starting to break down:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/enso/indi ... okmark=iod
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by wolfcat »

4:20pm update now as 38c for Melbourne, change is running slow.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas temps today: St Helens 23.4, Scottsdale 23.2, L'ton Airport 23.1, Launceston 22.8, Devonport 22.1, Hobart 19.5, Strahan 12.9
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by wolfcat »

Going to be a warm one all around the bay tomorrow.

Windy. Late cool change. Melbourne 16 38
Windy. Late cool change. Geelong 13 39
Windy. Late cool change. Laverton 14 39
Windy. Late cool change. Tullamarine 15 39
Windy. Late cool change. Scoresby 15 38
Windy. Late cool change. Watsonia 15 39
Late cool change. Yarra Glen 14 37
Late cool change. Frankston 14 36

And Total Fire Ban in the Mallee, Wimmera and Northern Country
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas max temps today: Cressy 25.1, Launceston 24.0, Fingal 22.9, Tunnack 22.1, Hobart 19.2, St Helens 18.8. In the last 30 days Launceston has had 7.8 mm of rain. In the last 38 days Mt Read on the West Coast has had 889 mm of rain.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Sean »

Tassiedave wrote: Sun Dec 08, 2019 7:58 pm Tas max temps today: Cressy 25.1, Launceston 24.0, Fingal 22.9, Tunnack 22.1, Hobart 19.2, St Helens 18.8. In the last 30 days Launceston has had 7.8 mm of rain. In the last 38 days Mt Read on the West Coast has had 889 mm of rain.
More than double Melbourne's YTD :o

Another spike tomorrow before the mild weather returns.

Waiting for a good rain, but it's been a dry old year and I suppose it'll finish that way.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

Gee the latest ACCESS G run indicates the continent will absolutely cook next Monday to Wednesday.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

Temps in Tas today: Grove 32.1, Ouse 31.8, Hobart 30.5, Cape Bruny 30.0, Launceston 23.0, Devonport 18.8, Wynyard 17.6
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Toastie 34C here. That’s about 38C sea level equivalent. Thankfully a one day wonder, and back to cooler weather for a few days. Would love to see some good rain in the outlook, as Vic is starting to turn in a hurry, but looks lean.
Tassiedave wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 11:42 am Gee the latest ACCESS G run indicates the continent will absolutely cook next Monday to Wednesday.
EC is the same. Looks awful. Mid 40s poking into southern OZ, high 40s locally further north. Last thing the country needs :( Would expect at least two or three mid 30s in Melbourne going off EC.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by snowfall »

Reached 35c today. Cool change now making its way through, with the temp progressively falling. Currently 29c. Turning into a dry month, with little rain on the horizon and only 3mm so far for the month. It has browned off here now. It was still green this time last year, but maybe the pattern will shift a bit once the positive IOD breaks down, presumably around January. Current SST anomalies are perhaps suggesting this process is beginning.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Macca2395 »

The forecast for Perth this week is shocking! :o
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Sean »

Macca2395 wrote: Mon Dec 09, 2019 9:10 pm The forecast for Perth this week is shocking! :o
Looks horrible.

This week is going to be a stinker for a lot of the country. Many inland centers will be approaching their December all-time records, and this comes after Australia's lowest ever maximum summertime temperature at Thredbo. Meanwhile, Darwin's matched its all-time December high, while it'll be 18c tomorrow in Melbourne after 38 today. We're only a third of the way through December, what else awaits, lol? (hopefully rain)
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by hillybilly »

Mizzle and fog here this morning. About 0.2mm in the gauge. Looks like the next few days will be similar with a cool swly flow. The ridge is quite close so showers will be mainly coastal and squeeze. Will start an inbetween thread to cover it.

Next week looks shocking. EC has around 32, 40, 38, 30C for Monday to Thursday in the city. More like 39, 42, 45 and 45C for Mildura :? Proper front is not really showing up, so not clear when it clears out :o
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Macedonian »

14.5C max for me today. Heaps better than the stupid 30C max yesterday.
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Re: VIC- Return of summery weather: Dec 8-10 2019

Post by Tassiedave »

Tas Temps today Cressy 26.6, L'ton Airport 24.4, Launceston 23.4, Friendly Beaches 20.1, Hobart 20.3
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